Wildfire in Nevada, July 17 to 21, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
337 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon high temperatures will remain above normal
levels with readings in the 90s through this week. Thunderstorms
will become limited to mainly White Pine county. However there
could be a resurgence of subtropical moisture by late in the week,
and into the weekend, which could help to enhance the development
of thunderstorms.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Some pesky showers are
continuing across central NV at this time. Latest HRRR runs are
showing a weak impulse in the flow helping to generate those
showers.

For today, biggest story will be the breezy conditions and low
relative humidities and the active fires in the area. Will handle
this in the fire weather section below. We will also have another
shot for dry thunderstorms in the central and northern portions of
the forecast area as well. Definitely some concern with regards to
the dry valley fuels and any lightning strikes that could start
new fires. Added smoke to the wx grids mainly across I-80 north
due to ongoing fires. High temperatures will continue to remain
above normal levels with readings in the mid to upper 90s.

Tonight into Tuesday. Upper level ridge will continue to move
eastward during this time period. Southwest flow will remain over
the area which will continue to dry the area out. Kept a sliver of
very isolated dry TS due to the central NV convergence zone, but
think that we will be too stable for anything but flat cumulus to
form. In addition, there is some concern about the continuation of
stronger winds and low RH in the northern zones. More will be put
in the fire weather discussion below. Highs for Tuesday will
remain at or above normal levels with values in the mid to upper
90s.

.LONG TERM...Monsoon moisture will remain across east central NV
near the Utah border during most of the period for isolated
thunderstorm activity. A dry southwest flow will prevail across
the rest of northern and eastern NV. Temperatures will be near
normal.

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.AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorm activity this afternoon could
impact the KELY terminal, otherwise VFR conditions expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Critical winds/RH will the main story today with
active fires going on across northern Nevada. SW winds of 10-20
with gusts of 35 mph are expected. In addition, could see an
isolated dry TS although the best moisture continues to be along
the eastern border with Utah. Any storm or area of virga could
produce wind gusts to 45 mph.

Models continue to show the possibility of strong winds for
Tuesday afternoon in the northern fire zones. This would include
fire zones 467 through 469. 700 mb winds of 20-30 mph are possible
with a zone of higher 500 mb winds. This is somewhat similar to
what today is looking like. Will talk to morning shift forecaster
on the possibility of continuing current headline products for
Tuesday.

The best chances for any thunderstorm activity will remain in
White Pine county through the week as the deepest moisture will
reside there. Looks like winds relax a bit for Wednesday and
Thursday, but the upper level ridge appears to re-assert by the
latter portions of the week and into next weekend. It's too early
to suggest something at this time other than above normal
temperatures are likely along with the dry conditions.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening for Central Lander and Eureka Counties-Central and
Western Humboldt County-Eastern Humboldt County and Northwestern
Elko County-Southwestern and Central Elko County.

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