A thunderstorm with very heavy rain remained stationary over the Poplar Bluff area for a couple hours. The storm occurred in a southwest flow of moist and unstable air ahead of a cold front over western and northern Missouri.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A thunderstorm with very heavy rain remained stationary over the Poplar Bluff area for a couple hours. The storm occurred in a southwest flow of moist and unstable air ahead of a cold front over western and northern Missouri.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 2:17 AM CST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 317 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 Much of the short term will be spent in a warm sector type regime, with daily scattered shower/thunderstorm chances and above normal temperatures. We will remain sandwiched between a blocking H50 high pressure system over the southeast U.S. and low pressure out over the Plains. Minor perturbations ejecting out the base of this low will be difficult to time, but it seems as though the highest storm chances may be diurnally enhanced as instability levels should be greatest during the heat of the day. Most storms are expected to stay below severe levels, though an isolated severe storm here and there cannot be completely ruled out. Showers/thunderstorms will become more numerous Saturday and Saturday night as a cold front finally approaches from the west, providing a more focused low level trigger. However, the low level convergence along the front looks rather meek at this time. The main mid/upper level short wave will also be pressing east at that time which will lead to more widespread forcing aloft. Cannot rule a out a few strong to severe storms as the front gets closer, but timing of the front may come later at night into early Sunday, which would limit the amount of overall instability to work with. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 Again high confidence in the unsettled weather pattern for the extended. The exact timing is coming into better agreement but have doubts on the longevity of the rainfall which are in somewhat contrast to forecast sounding. Models have come into good agreement on fropa Sunday with the cold front bisecting the FA around mid day Sunday. Instability index values do exist for both elevated and surface based convection with LI's negative 1 to 3 and CAPE between 300 at the surface with MU CAPEs approaching 1000 j/kg. K index values exceed 30c and Showalters slightly negative. So organized storm will be possible but widespread severe outbreak is not really expected at this time. However any outflow boundaries from previous storms could interact with the synoptic scale front or individual storms...so it will heed close monitoring. In its wake cooler drier air rushes into the region. This should rapidly cut off thunder at least in the afternoon during peak heating. By Tuesday a reinforcing cold front will come into the region on the heels of the weekend fropa. Again there will be sufficient instability ahead of the front Tuesday for convection albeit limited. Much drier and cooler will once again follow which should limit or reduce the longevity of pops going into Wednesday. Near normal temperatures Sunday will fall well below normal for the first half of next week. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Only minor changes from 00z WFO PAH TAF issuance. Trends suggest that timing of overnight convection still appears reasonable, so no adjustments made at this time. Added a mention of vicinity showers to last 6 hours of forecast period for each taf location. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...GM LONG TERM...KH AVIATION...Smith
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 354 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-190900- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 354 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. A few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns. Area river flooding continues. Please refer to the flood products for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. A few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 156 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:01 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A small section of County Road 523 was washed out. The washout was east of U.S. Highway 67. There was a report of 5.50 inches of rain in the area overnight.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 694229.