Hail in Missouri, March 29, 2017

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

Main concern this afternoon and evening revolve around severe wx
potential, mainly along and south of the Route 50 corridor. Latest
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery showing a fair amount of
clearing across southern Missouri this hour, with some thinning of
the stratus deck noted further north across our southern portions
of our forecast area. This likely marks the position of a nearly
stalled warm front with upper 50 degree dewpoints noted just to
its south. Per latest SPC RUC analyses, instability generation
has largely been confined to areas south of our area, however fcst
models to include both the RUC and NAM suggest a narrow corridor
of MLCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg extending north into our area later
this afternoon and evening, just south of the warm front. Looking
out west, initial convection now developing over eastern Kansas,
and considering the expectations for the previously mentioned
instability axis extending north in our area, expect this activity
to gradually grow upscale over the next few hours. Wind fields
from various BUFKIT soundings south of Route 50 are impressive,
with stout southeast boundary layer winds overlaid with strong
west-southwest winds centered near 5 kft. This curvature combined
with horizontal vorticity generation along the warm front suggests
an isolated tornado threat will remain with any discrete cells
that develop within the next few hours. As mentioned in previous
forecast updates however, much will remain contingent upon the
degree of destabilization that can occur within the next few
hours. If current RUC and NAM fcsts are accurate, its not
inconceivable to expect mini-supercells south of the KC Metro
with an isolated tornado threat.

Severe convection (if it develops) should congeal more into
multicell structures as the evening hours continue on. After this
exits stage right, deformation band rainfall, now seen western
Kansas and southern Nebraska will begin to shift to the south
before steadily making its way over our area early Thursday
morning. Much of the instability should be gone by then, however
the continuation of an isolated thunder mention appears warranted
given residual MUCAPE aloft. Much if not the entire area should
get involved with this before bulk of precip exits by early
afternoon. This will quickly be followed by increasing heights
aloft and the approach of a shortwave ridge axis which should then
provide for dry weather heading into the early half of the
weekend.

Dry weather won't last too long as the aforementioned ridge
slides east and the next longwave trough/closed low approaches
Saturday night and Sunday. Again, decent moisture advection in
advance of this feature will help lead to favorable conditions for
precipitation redevelopment by Sunday over much of the lower
Missouri Valley. Overall instability looks to once again be
lacking, however cannot rule out isolated thunder activity with
this system as it slowly marches east. Dry weather looks to return
by Monday afternoon with the next system expected to dive
southeast from the Northern Rockies by midweek, bringing yet
another chance for rainfall to the area as the very active
jetstream pattern continues...

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

Unsettled conditions currently dominate all the terminals on the
Kansas-Missouri border as a broad storm system tracks across the
region. Expect on-again-off-again storms well into the night as
the upper level storm system slowly moves across. Additionally,
as the center of the low moves across CIGs and VIS is expected to
drop into the IFR to LIFR range. Currently, expectations are that
the LIFR to IFR conditions will likely persist through much, if
not all, of the day Thursday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
501 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-301015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
501 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Severe weather is possible this afternoon and evening, mainly south
 of I-70. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
 possible with this activity. Additionally, localized flash flooding
 is possible, along with rapidly rising river levels.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Severe weather potential will decrease Thursday, though hydrologic
 concerns will remain in play until early Friday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             3 SSW LENEXA            38.91N 94.76W
03/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

0529 PM     HAIL             OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
03/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 W GARDNER             38.81N 94.96W
03/29/2017                   JOHNSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT...MAY HAVE BEEN IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND
            BUT NO DAMAGE REPORTED

&&

LAFLIN