Heavy rain across the Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys early in the month caused minor flooding along parts of the Mississippi River.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Heavy rain across the Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys early in the month caused minor flooding along parts of the Mississippi River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 7, 5:25 AM CST, 4 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
625 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2017
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2017
Will be issuing a Frost Advisory for areas along and east of a
line from Mt Vernon Illinois to Mayfield Kentucky from 11 PM
tonight through 9 AM Saturday. The 00Z models indicate that the
pressure gradient will be tightening up overnight, so there is the
potential for a south wind to kick in after midnight in the west.
However, all available MOS guidance is in good agreement in winds
becoming calm over most of the area quickly this evening, and not
really picking up much through daybreak. Contemplated going
farther west with the Advisory, but think the current area is a
pretty good bet for at least areas of frost, if not widespread.
There is still time for adjustments to be made by the day shift.
Temperature guidance seems a bit warm with good radiational
cooling expected. Leaned a bit on the cool side for lows, but will
not be surprised if we are not cool enough.
South winds will develop throughout the region on Saturday and
lead to a very nice weekend with temperatures well above normal,
especially on Sunday. Those south winds may gust 30-35 mph Sunday
afternoon, and will remain rather strong Sunday night.
Low-level moisture return will be difficult to get, as surface
ridging continues across the northern Gulf. However, there is some
potential for a few showers late Sunday night over portions of
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The 00Z NAM and GFS
soundings show a mid-level cap that will make deep convection
difficult to achieve, but with only slight chance PoPs forecast
decided to keep a mention of TS going late Sunday night.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2017
Still maintain an above average (60-80) forecast confidence for
timing, coverage, and intensity of precipitation Monday into
Tuesday, along with the break in precipitation from Tuesday through
early Thursday.
The signal for the Monday/Monday night precipitation event has been
consistent since early last week. There have been some variability
on the start and ending times, but the Monday time frame remains
solid for rain chances. The blended guidance does complement and
flatten the various model biases. so the output is reasonable.
Utilized a differential probability of thunderstorms with the rain
chances, given the variability of mesoscale and boundary influences.
Lower than average forecast confidence (less than 40%) beyond
Thursday with respect to rain chances. Too many variables in the
transition/dampening of shortwaves into the mean ridge, as well as
location of anticyclonic shear zones and moisture advection from the
Western Gulf of Mexico. Don't have significant confidence in the
regionally blended guidance for that time period due to the emphasis
on the wetter GFS versus the drier ECWMF/CMCnh guidance.
Most of the guidance initialized with a slight cold bias and
temperatures with slightly more moist dewpoints that expected.
Regionally blended guidance was utilized, with minor weighting from
ensemble, deterministic, and MOS guidance. With ridging in place,
temperatures will remain moderated throughout the period with highs
in the 70s, with lows spanning the upper 40s to near 60.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2017
Surface high pressure will settle overhead tonight, but before it
does, northwest winds will gust into the teens for much of the
day. Strongest winds are expected at KEVV and KOWB. A few cu will
also be possible in the east. Winds should go calm this evening,
and stay that way through 12Z Saturday. With strong mixing
expected today and a dry airmass in place, fog should not be a
concern tonight despite strong radiational cooling expected.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday for
ILZ075>078-081>083-085>087-089>091-094.
MO...None.
IN...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday for
KYZ005>022.
&&
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRSHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 844 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2017 ILZ080-084-088-092-093-KYZ001>004-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114- 081000- Perry IL-Jackson-Union-Alexander-Pulaski-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle- Ballard-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley- Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 844 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday South to southwest winds will gust 30 to 35 mph at times Sunday afternoon. A small chance of thunderstorms is forecast for all or a portion of the area from late Sunday night through Monday night, and again Thursday into Thursday night. While a stray strong storm cannot be ruled out, lightning and locally heavy rain will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. ILZ075>078-081>083-085>087-089>091-094-INZ081-082-085>088- KYZ005>022-081000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Franklin-Hamilton-White- Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Massac-Gibson-Pike- Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick-Spencer-McCracken-Graves-Livingston- Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster- Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd- 844 AM CDT Fri Apr 7 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwestern Indiana, and western Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Frost Advisory is in effect from 11 PM tonight through 9 AM Saturday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday South to southwest winds will gust 30 to 35 mph at times Sunday afternoon. A small chance of thunderstorms is forecast for all or a portion of the area from late Sunday night through Monday night, and again Thursday into Thursday night. While a stray strong storm cannot be ruled out, lightning and locally heavy rain will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred along the Mississippi River. Low-lying bottomland fields were under water. The river backed into some creeks, producing flooding of low-lying areas inland from the river.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, April 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 690165.