Hail in Minnesota, August 6, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
104 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

Pre-dawn showers were already breaking out as of this writing
across western MN in response to the approaching shortwave
embedded in the longwave trough that continues to maintain its
stronghold across the region. This activity is forecast to slowly
evolve east, but should stay scattered/isolated in coverage and do
not expect to see thunder develop this morning.

Later today though, expect increasing cloud cover as lapse rates
again steepen and lead to scattered showers and even a few weak
thunderstorms. These scattered showers will likely move through
over several hours this afternoon and into the evening. So, a
fairly similar day to yesterday, but expect the showers to be
greater in spatial coverage. Highs should again top out in the mid
to upper 70s and wind speeds will remain light.

Skies will begin clearing tonight and fog will be possible when it
does. Temperatures will likely fall into the low to mid 50s, with
some upper 40s possible in central MN and northwest WI.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

Monday and Tuesday will be seasonable and dry as a ridge of high
pressure slowly expands southward and dominates the Upper Midwest.
Tuesday could be the warmest in the next 7 days as 85H temperatures
rise along an increasing thermal gradient as the next system
approaches from the north.

Wednesday/Thursday still look unsettled but other than a weak
frontal boundary, not much upper level support to trigger anything
more than isolated/scattered showers/storms. However, more cloud
cover will limit solar radiation and thus temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler than on Tuesday.

Past Thursday, the general mean upper level pattern holds a
northwest flow, but models have been more aggressive next weekend as
an upper level system becomes cutoff from the mean flow. Therefore,
based on the latest model trends, and holding close to the ensemble
means, next weekend looks to be more unsettled and cool for mid
August. Confidence still remains low as this trend has only been
advertised in the past 24 hours from all three deterministic model
runs /GFS, GEM, EC/. More confidence in the forecast stems from the
anomalous upper low south of Alaska slowly filling/weakening, and
allowing for an upper ridge to build eastward across the Canadian
Prairies as this system moves closer to western North America.
Therefore, the cooler than normal conditions may slowly warm the
week of August 14th. Even the CIPS extended outlook centered the
week of August 14th shows this warmer pattern for the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

Scattered storms will continue to develop along a weak boundary
from northeast of KULM to the southern metro to the KLUM area.
Otherwise, scattered showers are expected into the early evening
over most of the area. A few of these might intensify into a storm
as well.

Once shra/tsra diminish this evening, the only concern will be
whether patchy fog develops with light winds. Most areas will
probably have mid level clouds most of the night, so suspect that
fog is doubtful. But not impossible, so will continue to watch for
that.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...TDK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
071200-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered storms are possible this afternoon into the evening.
Severe weather is not expected, but a few storms across the
region might have a couple minutes of pea size hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Chances for thunderstorms return to the region Wednesday and
Friday. The probability of severe weather is very low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

tdk