Multiple lines of showers and thunderstorms developed from early this afternoon through this evening ahead of a cold front moving from northwest to southeast. Strong to severe winds materialized underneath a few of these storms, resulting in downed trees in Montgomery, Estill, and Elliott Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Multiple lines of showers and thunderstorms developed from early this afternoon through this evening ahead of a cold front moving from northwest to southeast. Strong to severe winds materialized underneath a few of these storms, resulting in downed trees in Montgomery, Estill, and Elliott Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 22, 10:40 AM EST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1140 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1141 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017 Latest GOES-16 imagery showing very little over eastern Kentucky. Had a few rogue showers earlier, but they have all died off. Upstream activity continues to show cloud tops warming indicating a continued weakening trend expected. However, it has left a nice east to west ouflow boundary near the Ohio river. This could be the focus for redevelopment this afternoon. Until more organized activity arrives later on, we could see a few airmass thunderstorms off the high terrain in southern Kentucky by early afternoon. However, more widespread showers/storms will arrive after 4 pm and likely after 6 pm. Updated grids to refine the pops for the next several hours and also increase pops tonight with the frontal passage. UPDATE Issued at 657 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017 Forecast seems to be on track so far this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast for temps, dew points, and winds were on track with current conditions. Fog remains confined to the deeper valleys and should dissipate over the next couple of hours as temperatures quickly heat up. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 445 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017 A cold front will be the main culprit during the short term portion of the forecast. Aloft, troughing and NW flow across the region will allow a cold front to push SE towards the state throughout the day. It is then expected to traverse southward across eastern Kentucky starting between 0 and 3Z this evening, and exiting to our SE between 12 and 15Z Wednesday. As models come into a more fine tuned agreement of this system, so has the POP forecast. As the front moves across the state, strong surface high pressure to our north will begin to sink southward. Winds will quickly shift to a more northerly direction and allow much more stable and dry air to filter in. This will likely result in a fairly sharp cut off of precip behind the frontal passage tonight and early Wednesday morning, though upslope flow could allow it to linger a bit longer into Wednesday afternoon along the Virginia border. Elsewhere, mostly clear conditions will be in play by Wednesday, with continued NW flow aloft and Nrly flow at the surface keeping temperatures below seasonable normals, in the upper 70s with low humidity. Latest CAMs are all in agreement that convection will move through in a line structure ahead of the frontal boundary, with a secondary line possibly developing along the actual front just behind. The first round will affect eastern Kentucky through the afternoon, dissipating the farther it gets east. The second line then looks to pose the biggest punch as it moves across during the late afternoon and early evening, weakening as we head into the overnight. Also can't rule out a few individual cells developing out ahead of these lines. Forecast soundings continue to support decent instability parameters as these lines move through the region. 0 to 6km sheer still looks to be between 30 and 40 kts through the afternoon which again is decent, but not overly impressive. In context, we are located quite a distance from the actual low center, so the overall best lift and sheer will be located farther to our NE where more sustained/larger QLCS's are expected. SPC did not mention the concern of spin ups along the line in our region, and reasonably so. Freezing levels are quite high, and given the progressive nature of the linear system, hail, while possible, is not the main concern. Instead, still looking at more of a momentum transfer wind event as mixing occurs in the heavier showers/storms and along the leading edge of the line. Heavy rain will also be possible, with PWATS peaking around or just above 2 inches during the late afternoon/evening time frame. Thankfully we have had a decent period of drying across much of eastern Kentucky, so this should not prompt much of a flooding concern, especially given the progressive nature of the system. That being said, can't rule out some isolated instances in low lying areas, urban areas, or locations that may experience several rounds. Overnight, the loss of heat and instability should weaken the system and cut off severe potential, along with general thunder potential. Dropped thunder down to chance and then slight chances in the prefrontal environment through the overnight. Once the front does pass through, convection will quickly be cut off all together. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017 The models are in good agreement with a more amplified long wave pattern to hold on through the beginning of this weekend. Troughing will mainly rule in the East, with ridging in the West. Details concerning the evolution of the pattern by this weekend and early next week become more murky, especially with regards to the now remnants of Harvey. As such, did not deviate from the blended guidance. Dry weather will be on tap for eastern Kentucky through Friday, as high pressure controls to our north. A weak inverted trough will then nose in from the southwest, bringing just a slight chance of showers to our Virginia border counties on Saturday. POPs will diurnally increase into next week as the inverted trough appears to sharpen up more; however, much will depend on the outcome of Harvey. Temperatures will average below normal through the period, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017 VFR conditions and light winds will prevail at the TAF sites through early this afternoon, though clouds will be on the increase. An approaching cold front will then bring scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with the storms becoming more numerous by late afternoon/evening. As such, kept VCTS starting around 16 to 17Z, increasing to predominate TSRA by 22 to 23Z. Some of these storms could be severe, with damaging winds the main threat. Torrential rainfall and frequent lightning will be secondary threats. We lose instability heading into the overnight, but showers will continue to be numerous through the first half of the night (-SHRA VCTS around 3Z). Coverage will then quickly taper off to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as the front moves through late (went VCTS by 6Z). Any shower or thunderstorm during the TAF period could reduce visibilities quite dramatically as they pass over a TAF site, however given the uncertainty of impacts and specific timing, went prevailing MVFR at this time. Winds will generally be from the SW ahead of the cold front, becoming more westerly just behind the frontal passage late in the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 1240 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114-119-231945- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Lee-Breathitt- Owsley-Martin- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Beattyville, Jackson, Booneville, and Inez 1240 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds the main threat. Secondary threats will be hail and locally heavy rainfall, which could lead to minor flooding of low lying areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Thunderstorms are also possible during the day Sunday, mainly south of the Hal Rogers Parkway, and across all of eastern Kentucky Monday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of wind damage, hail or flooding this afternoon and tonight. KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120-231945- Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd- Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Pike- Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1240 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe this evening, with damaging winds the main threat. Secondary threats will be hail and locally heavy rainfall, which could lead to minor flooding of low lying areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Thunderstorms are also possible during the day Sunday, mainly south of the Hal Rogers Parkway, and across all of eastern Kentucky Monday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of wind damage, hail or flooding this afternoon and tonight. KAS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
140 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017
KYZ044-050-051-221815-
Montgomery-Bath-Fleming-
140 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...
WESTERN BATH AND SOUTHEASTERN FLEMING COUNTIES THROUGH 215 EDT...
At 139 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Carlisle to near Sideview to near
Winchester. Movement was east at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 35 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Sharpsburg, Reynoldsville, Wyoming,
Sideview, Peasticks, Flat Creek, Coons Station, Odessa, Stepstone,
Bourbon Furnace, Pebble, Gatewoods Station, Slate Valley, Bethel,
Stoops, Oakley, Peeled Oak and Ewington.
LAT...LON 3831 8356 3816 8369 3803 8383 3803 8403
3812 8408 3814 8406 3817 8399 3819 8398
3828 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 264DEG 26KT 3823 8404 3813 8413 3804 8425
RAYThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 77 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:10 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter observed a large tree down along Kentucky Highway 11 in Mount Sterling.
The local department of highways reported several trees down along Kentucky Highway 52 near Pitts.
The department of highways relayed reports of several trees down near the intersection of Kentucky Highways 556 and 173 in Lytten.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 708949, 708950, 708951.