Tornado and Hail in Kansas, May 31, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

A weak diffuse frontal boundary continues to be located from
generally KSLN southeast to KCNU. Isolated storms continue to
develop along this weak boundary over SE KS and some over South
Central KS. Expect the isolated/widely scattered storms to become a
little more numerous for the early morning hours across South
Central KS as weak mid level warm advection and isentropic lift
again increases across the forecast area. This will lead to a
general increase in the coverage by around sunrise, with elevated
instability around 500-1000 j/kg leading to some thunderstorms.

After the morning convection wanes by noon. NW mid level flow will
slowly begin to shift east of the area by this evening, but before
it does, impulses in the flow are expected to drop southeast across
the area this afternoon. A return of warmer southerly flow, to the
west of the impulse, will lead to increased low level moisture
advection and will in effect sharpen the convergence along the quasi-
stationary boundary still expected to be located from KRSL to KSGF
this afternoon. Latest Nam/WRF and GFS both show 850-700h Fn-
convergence increasing along this boundary late this afternoon. So
think scattered showers/thunderstorms will develop for the afternoon
hours as convergence increases and lift increases from the NW flow
impulse. With MLCAPE values potentially climbing to around 1500-2000
j/kg during max heating, and bulk shear similar to yesterday of 30-
35 kts, think some severe storms look possible across portions of
Central KS and areas northeast and east of Wichita.  Could see some
rotating storms early on, which may lead to a large hail threat, but
as storms congeal into a broken cluster of storms, the main threat
will gradually transition to a damaging wind threat. Propagation
vectors seem to suggest convection that develops in Central KS will
drop south-southeast during the evening hours, towards highway
54/400 and the Flint HIlls. So portions of the Flint Hills and even
the Wichita metro area, may see thunderstorms roll into area late
this evening.

Think convective chances will end from west to the east as tonight
progresses, as increasing warm air aloft will lead to increasing
inhibition for storm development.

Could see a lull in the showers for most of Thu, as the warm
advection pushes the warm front well northeast of the area. Some
model differences on how the daytime hours Thu will play out, with
the NAM/WRF and ECMWF showing a dry spell, while the GFS suggests a
weak impulse in the southerly flow will lead to increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms for southeast KS for Thu
afternoon/evening. Prefer to go with the drier solution for now and
keep things dry for most of Thu.

Storm chances look to return to the region for Fri as impulses in
the weak southwest flow continue to rotate NE into the forecast
area. Increasing low level moisture will lead to periodic chances
of showers and thunderstorms, as the lift increases.

Severe chances for the end of the week look fairly low given the
weak shear pattern, but some moderate instability may lead to a few
strong storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

A cold front looks to drift south into Central KS for early Sat,
with the front lingering across the area for most of Sat through Sat
night. This will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms for
most of the area.

The frontal boundary looks to drop south of the area for Sunday,
which may lead to a break from the thunderstorms for Sunday. But
upslope flow on the backside of the front may lead to convection
developing across the high plains for Sun night through Mon. This
convection may drop E-SE into western sections of the forecast area
for the beginning of the week.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

Convection is expected to develop along and south of a surface
front which has sagged across central Kansas at midday. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms are expected by late afternoon and
should continue into the evening. A complex of storms is possible
overnight somewhere across central and eastern Kansas. For now
have VCTS in most terminals for the window of greatest
opportunity and will AMD with TEMPO as needed. Outside of
convection, some MVFR cigs will be possible early Thursday morning
along and east of I-135, though for now have kept forecast mainly
VFR.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  64  86  66 /  30  40  10  10
Hutchinson      86  63  86  65 /  40  40  10  10
Newton          84  63  85  65 /  40  50  10  10
ElDorado        84  64  85  65 /  40  40  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   87  65  86  66 /  30  30  10  10
Russell         84  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  10
Great Bend      86  62  86  63 /  40  50  10  10
Salina          84  64  87  66 /  40  50  20  10
McPherson       84  63  86  64 /  40  50  10  10
Coffeyville     86  63  85  65 /  30  30  20  10
Chanute         84  63  85  65 /  40  40  30  10
Iola            83  63  84  65 /  40  40  30   0
Parsons-KPPF    84  64  85  65 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1108 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-011615-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1108 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central, South
Central, and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms across South Central and Southeast Kansas this
afternoon are capable or producing nickel size hail.

Later this afternoon, storms will develop across central Kansas.
These will be capable of producing quarter size hail and 60 mph
wind. The severe threat will evolve into a damaging wind threat as
the thunderstorms congeal into a complex of storms late this
evening. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also increase
late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will prevail across the
region Friday afternoon through the weekend, and into next week.
Highest chances will generally be during the evening and overnight
hours. While organized severe weather appears unlikely, a handful
of strong storms are possible, along with locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

KRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

KSZ095-096-311830-
Wilson KS-Neosho KS-
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

The National Weather Service in WICHITA has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 130 PM CDT

* At 1228 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Altoona, or 10 miles north of
  Neodesha...moving east at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Chanute, Erie, St. Paul, Thayer, Altoona, Galesburg, Stark,
  Earlton, South Mound, Chanute Airport and Lake Parsons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issues by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 9571 3765 9572 3772 9510 3739 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 266DEG 20KT 3757 9563

COOK