Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, May 18, 2017

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 232 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

A rather active weather pattern will commence this evening through
the early weekend, with all modes of severe weather hazards and
flash flooding potential possible.

A large, upper-level low positioned over the Rockies will continue
to deepen as a jet max surges southeastward overhead the
southwestern CONUS. The upper-level system will reach its peak
intensity late Friday, and will be the focus for a multi-day
significant weather event beginning this evening through early
Saturday morning. In the near term, leeside low pressure has
formed over the Texas Panhandle with convection already firing on
the dryline as of Thursday afternoon. This feature will be slow to
propagate in the short term as the upper low matures. Locally
speaking, a warm front extending northeast from this surface
feature has stalled near the I-70 corridor. Weak surface
convergence along this boundary and a 5 to 10 degree dew point
gradient may be sufficient to allow for late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms to develop near the KC metro. Should storms
develop, a favorable environment could support strong to severe
storms within the vicinity of the stalled front. The main hazard
would reside with strong winds and large hail within any rotating
thunderstorms, including a possible isolated tornado near the warm
front.

The greater certainty is with the setup this evening as energy
ejecting out of the upper low advects overhead the warm front this
evening. Expecting to see convection initiate across eastern Kansas
and western Missouri in the 7 to 8 pm time frame. This will then
push northeastward at a steady pace through the early evening hours.
With the first round of activity, 60 to 65 mph winds are possible
across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, in addition to hail up
to one inch. With ample shear and low-level turning expected near
the warm front, cannot rule out an isolated tornado over eastern
Kansas or western Missouri. This activity will likely taper off
by the late evening before the next round of storms which develop
upstream advect their way into the area overnight. The second
round of activity should remain sub-severe within a worked over
environment, though strong wind gusts remain possible during this
time heading into early Friday morning.

Will see a brief break in the activity Friday morning before the
next round of potential severe weather returns by Friday afternoon.
The warm front will slowly lift northward to Highway 36, bringing the
severe weather threat to northern Missouri, in addition to the
remaining CWA south of the frontal boundary. Friday night may be the
greatest period of concern as the Pacific cold front intersects the
slow moving warm front. This would pose the potential for a few
tornadoes near the warm front, in addition to strong to damaging
winds along the cold front Friday night. The other primary hazard is
with the setup for heavy rainfall through the duration of the
overnight period. This, coupled with rainfall from Thursday night
will lead to rainfall totals between 2 to 3 inches across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri, with locally higher amounts possible.
Have thus issued a Flash Flood Watch from eastern Kansas to
central Missouri through Saturday morning. Will also need to
monitor rising river levels through the early to late weekend.

The pattern will then subside briefly by the latter half of the
weekend before the active pattern resumes early next week.
Additionally, surface temperatures will return to seasonal to just
below seasonal throughout much of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

Thunderstorms are expected to move over MCI and MKC in the next
few hours along a warm frontal boundary. Ceilings look to stay VFR
for the first round of storms. A complex of storms over KS will
eventually move through the region around midnight. High winds
could be a threat with these storms but the uncertainty of timing
and intensity will keep any high winds out of the TAF until a
solid solution is known. These storms will take 3-4 hours to clear
out of the region with MVFR ceilings filling in behind this
boundary. These ceilings will last through most of the afternoon
on Friday with STJ seeing possible IFR ceilings in the late
morning timeframe. Another warm frontal boundary will be pushing
through Friday afternoon with TS added to all TAFS through the end
of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning
     for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning
     for MOZ011>014-020>023-028>031-037>039-043>045-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Barham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
430 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-190930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
430 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Thunderstorms will become increasingly likely this evening into the
 early overnight hours across the outlook area. These storms may be
 strong to severe, and may be capable of producing strong straight-
 line winds, hail, and a few brief tornadoes.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday evening through
 early Saturday morning. A few storms could become strong to severe.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
658 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSZ057-060-190045-
Miami KS-Linn KS-
658 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI AND
NORTHWESTERN LINN COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 658 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Parker, or 10 miles east of Garnett, moving north at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paola, Osawatomie, Parker and Beagle.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3825 9506 3857 9507 3861 9506 3857 9475
      3824 9497
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 186DEG 24KT 3830 9505

Blair