Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 7, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
537 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Upper ridge centered over the Four Corners will steer shortwave
energy southeastward across the High Plains. Convection already
developing along the Palmer Divide this afternoon will continue to
develop eastward along a mesoscale boundary apparent on KFTG
radar, then move southeast across the local area tonight with the
mean flow. Environment, at least early, will be moderately
unstable with deep layer shear 30-35kts. Models have pushed back
timing a bit and may not arrive in northwest Kansas until later in
the evening. SBCape will be waning and CIN increasing by that
time and storms may become elevated. As a result, wind and hail
threat may be limited to northeast Colorado early in the evening,
with more of a heavy rain threat later in the evening and
overnight as storms move east into precipitable water values of
around 1.00-1.50 inches. Best precipitation chances will be south
of Interstate 70.

Upper pattern changes little for Saturday with the Four Corners
ridge dominant and weak shortwave energy rotating around it
through the central Plains. Surface pattern will be messy and
dependent on effects of overnight convection, but still looks to
be mainly easterly low level upslope with the frontal boundary
near or just south. Convective allowing models favor northern part
of the area for afternoon storms while global models show
scattered storms developing just about everywhere. There will be
weak to moderate instability and deep layer shear at around
20-30kts. SPC has the local area in a marginal risk which seems
appropriate given all of the uncertainties. Temperatures will be
similar to today, mainly in the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Hot temperatures will dominate the extended period with chances for
precipitation. The region will be under a perpetual ridge, with a
transition between being on the eastern side of the ridge (bringing
in northwest flow aloft) or being directly under the ridge. Tuesday
is the only day where the upper level flow flattens out briefly.

What causes precipitation chances through the majority of the period
will be shortwaves that move over the region. Along with hot
temperatures and instabilty storms will be possible. This set up is
variable though, chances for precipitation are strong but timing and
location will vary and will need to be adjusted as each day
approaches.

Ridging will create hot temperatures during the period. Monday and
Tuesday are currently forecast to be the hottest with some locations
reaching the low 100s. The remainder of the days will be in the mid
to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK, though brief 3-6sm vis could be possible if stronger
thunderstorm or shower impacts either terminal. Currently best
chance of showers/thunderstorms is at KGLD with activity in
eastern CO expected to expand eastward early this evening then
transition along/south of I-70 in Kansas. In addition to the
activity models show just south of the Nebraska state line late
this evening, a smaller area of showers/thunderstorms over western
Nebraska may drop south towards KMCK (only a few models are
supporting this). I adjusted timing based on current
confidence/timing.

Prevailing winds will remain below 12kt through the TAF period.
The exception would be if thunderstorm activity is able to produce
stronger winds that could impact the terminals (not confident
enough to include yet).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017 /1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado later this
afternoon or early evening and then move across the remainder of the
area tonight. A few severe storms are possible mainly this evening
with large hail and damaging winds, then locally heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding through the remainder of the night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

From Saturday morning into the evening hours a few severe
thunderstorms will be possible across the entire area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.