Moisture and instability increased significantly as S/SE flow drew increasing dew points northward. 5 inch by sunrise.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
Moisture and instability increased significantly as S/SE flow drew increasing dew points northward. Precipitable water climbed to near 1.5 inch by sunrise. Thunderstorms initiated on the mountains of northern New Mexico late in the afternoon on the 1st, and then propagated into the Texas panhandle by midnight as they grew upscale into an organized thunderstorm complex. This system caused flash flooding in Ellis and sub-severe hail in Ness.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 2:00 AM CST, 2 hours earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 300 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 ...UPDATE TO LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Short range models continue to indicate a series of H5 vort maxima associated with a shortwave trough, ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains late Sunday afternoon providing the focus for possible thunderstorm development late in the period. Regardless of a weak flow aloft, a prevailing southerly flow will continue to draw moisture into central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas ahead of an anchored surface low across southeast Colorado. Along with steep low/mid level lapse rates and increasing instability, this will set the stage for possible thunderstorms late this afternoon through the overnight time frame. Outside of an initial shot out west near the Colorado border late this afternoon, the best chance for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm develoment is expected to be further east across central portions of Kansas. A prevailing southerly flow will enhance warm air advection into western Kansas today, pushing H85 temperatures well up into the mid to upper 20s(C). Highs are expected to climb well up into the 90s(F) this afternoon. Look for lows down into the 60s(F) tonight. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Although a weak westerly flow aloft will prevail across the Western High Plains Monday, medium range models show yet another weak upper level shortwave transitioning eastward across the region early in the period. Considering a prevailing southerly flow will continue to draw moisture up into much of Kansas increasing instability, thunderstorms are likely to develop late afternoon into early evening as steepening low/mid level lapse rates weaken any capping. Based on the projected location of the surface low across the high plains, the best chance for precip is expected to be across central and eastern portions of western Kansas where forcing associated with a frontal boundary attendant to the surface low is generally forecast to set up. Thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday as H5 vort maxima drop southward across the Western High Plains on the front side of an amplifying upper level ridge across the Intermountain West. Sufficient moisture/instability will once again create conditions conducive to thunderstorm development late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. A drier pattern is then forecast mid to late week as the bulding ridge of high pressure in the Intermountain West begins to shift/expand ever so slightly eastward. With little change to the general air mass during the period, expect highs mainly in the 90s(F) each day through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Sunday evening. Southerly winds 10 to 20kt will persist across southwest and central Kansas through early Sunday as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across eastern Colorado. Southerly winds may pick up a little through Sunday afternoon as the lee side trough strengthens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 95 67 93 67 / 20 20 30 30 GCK 96 65 94 64 / 20 20 20 20 EHA 95 65 95 64 / 20 20 20 20 LBL 95 66 96 66 / 20 20 20 20 HYS 94 66 89 66 / 20 30 40 50 P28 93 69 94 70 / 20 30 40 40 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Dodge City KS 402 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-030915- Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman- Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa- Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber- 402 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 /302 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south central...southwest and west central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Day 1 Discussion ---------------- Thunderstorms will possible late this afternoon and evening across central and portions of southwest Kansas. Some storms may become severe capable of producing quarter to golf ball size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. Day 1 Hazards ------------- * Hail: Elevated risk * Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk * Lightning: Limited risk * Excessive heat: Limited risk .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Days 2-7 Discussion ------------------- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Tuesday. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing up to quarter size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. Days 2-7 Hazards ---------------- * Monday - Flooding: Elevated risk - Lightning: Limited risk - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk - Excessive heat: Limited risk * Tuesday - Lightning: Limited risk - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk - Excessive heat: Limited risk * Wednesday No hazards. * Thursday No hazards. * Friday - Lightning: Limited risk * Saturday - Lightning: Limited risk .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening...mainly east of a Garden City to Meade line. && For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo 32
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 454 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017 KSZ030-031-021100- Trego KS-Ellis KS- 454 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT... At 454 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3 miles north of Ogallah, or 8 miles east of Wakeeney, moving east at 15 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Hays, Wakeeney, Ellis, Victoria, Catherine, Ogallah, Walker, Emmeram, Yocemento, Toulon, Riga, Turkville and Hays Regional Airport. LAT...LON 3882 9904 3891 9995 3913 9987 3913 9904 TIME...MOT...LOC 0954Z 278DEG 13KT 3904 9973 HOVORKA
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 153 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:58 UTC.
1 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Rainfall was 5.15 inches 3 miles northwest of Emmeram. Water was over many county roads in the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 716422, 716423.