Drought in Georgia, March 1 to 31, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1007 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight as a
warm front lifts northward into our area. Showers and thunderstorms
will then precede a cold front tomorrow afternoon and evening, with
a few strong to severe storms possible. Cool high pressure will build
in behind the front before another front crosses the area early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EST Tuesday: Precip continues to move out and
dissipate with the departure of the upper support, so have adjusted
pops accordingly. Only minor tweaks to other grids.

Otherwise, the upper flow pattern over the lower 48 states continues
to amplify late this afternoon as a prominent trough digs through
the four corners region toward TX and modest height rises continue
downstream over the southeast. A late evening/early overnight lull
in precipitation is expected as this early round of showers slides
east and dissipates. Dewpoints will continue to recover in the
southerly nocturnal flow and mild mins in the 50s are expected.

An approaching surface cold front will march across Tennessee
through the day on Wednesday, with a southwesterly low level jet
strengthening to 50 kt ahead of the system. Upslope triggering in
the southern mountain is expected early, but then a robust 130 kt
plus upper jet will surge out east of the trough axis and wrap north
of the area through late day. This will lead to gradually improving
upper level divergence to complement the low level forcing.
Initially, mountain showers will be fairly spotty through 18Z, but
coverage will then increase rapidly from the west from 18Z to 00Z as
the cold front knocks on the door. The entire area remains in a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms, with the threat ramping up from
the west through Wednesday afternoon. Bulk shear will be quite good
for severe potential throughout, with sfc to 3 km values pushing 50
kt, and 60 to 65 kt through 6 km, but SBCAPE and lapse rates just
ahead of the front remain the primary question mark. If dewpoints
recover sufficiently (as expected), SBCAPE could reach 1000 J/kg
across the piedmont by late day. It's quite possible that the
initial arrival of the approaching convective line will be severe in
the western mountains, diminishing slightly over the mountains, but
then with secondary scattered strong to severe activity farther east
by early evening. In addition, gradient winds and deep mixing should
yield gusts well into the 30s in most locations. A Wind Advisory is
being considered, but it appears gusts will be just below criteria
at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Tuesday: Thunderstorms associated with a cold front
will be into the mountains at the start of the period. This front
quickly sweeps eastward Wednesday night taking the storms with it.
As mentioned in the Near Term, some of the storms could be severe,
especially across the mountains, as the front moves in during the
evening.Strong deep layer bulk shear swings across the area while
surface based instability is limited to less then 1000 J/kg. Even
MUCAPE will be below that level. Looks like the best overlap between
instability and shear will be across the mountains during the
evening, but severe storms cannot be ruled out elsewhere. The best
forcing moves to our north with the stronger short waves as well.
There is little to no level backing to the winds, keeping hodographs
more linear than curved. Therefore, straight line damaging winds are
the main threat. The Day 2 Slight Risk area from SPC remains across
the entire area as a result.

Strong gusty winds will continue across the mountains after fropa
with gusty winds tapering off outside of the mountains. Winds will
not be as strong on Saturday but will remain breezy over the
mountains with low end gusts elsewhere. CAA kicks in behind the
front with a significant cool down in temps. Lows will be near
normal mountains, but still 5 to 10 degrees above normal elsewhere.
Highs will be near normal mountains and up to 5 degrees above normal
elsewhere.

A clipper type system moves by to our north Thursday night and
Friday with a trailing reinforcing cold front crossing the area.
This will keep seasonal temps across the area with a return to very
windy conditions across the mountains and breezy to windy elsewhere.
Highs will be a little below normal mountains and near normal
elsewhere. Lows will be right around normal. This puts potential
freezing temps in play across the NC Foothills. With the early start
to the growing season, frost/freeze products may be needed for this
area. That said, it's still too early for a watch as with only a few
areas near freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2pm EST Tuesday:  Effects of major trough are well east of the
region Friday evening with residual northwest flow aloft and surface
high pressure to the west pushing dry and colder low-level air in
from the northwest.  Cold spot in the extended forecast may be
Saturday morning with freezing temperatures possible in all areas.
Cold and dry advection Friday evening will collapse dewpoints into
the teens for Saturday with freezing mornings continuing in the
mountains Sunday morning.  Dewpoints and temperatures begin improving
Sunday evening as flow turns southerly ahead of next system.

High pressure and fair weather will dominate through Sunday with the
next slight chance for rain coming in on Monday when flow aloft
deamplifies with ridge axis moving east and some embedded shortwave
activity possibly forcing some scattered precip.  Both EC and GFS
models bring the next major front into the area sometime on Tuesday
with the EC model more aggressive in amplifying the system, and
bringing a significant round of showers or thunderstorms early on
Tuesday

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Only change to the KCLT TAF for the 03z AMD
was to remove the TEMPO. Precip is rapidly diminishing and though
winds briefly veered NW, they have backed to the SW again and should
remain there. Otherwise, will see a decreasing trend in cigs
overnight as moisture increases across the area overnight. Low VFR
clouds this evening will drop to MVFR after 03z, then to IFR and
possibly even LIFR in some locations. Some guidance hinting at cigs
as low as 300ft at KCLT around daybreak and have not included that
at this time, but all TAFs have IFR cigs around that period. Some
light fog possible but significant restrictions unlikely (wind
speeds not light enough). Slow improvement during the day on
Wednesday as cold front approaches with lifting/scattering by
afternoon, and have introduced PROB30 -TSRA for the very end of the
period. Will have to add detail to TSRA with later TAFs as some of
these may be strong to severe. SW winds through the period generally
5-10kt overnight will increase to 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt by
Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook: The strong to severe thunderstorms may continue into the
early overnight hours Wednesday as the cold front crosses the
region. Drier conditions will set up behind the front from Thursday
through the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     Med   66%     High  88%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     Low   54%     High  80%     High 100%
KAVL       Low   54%     High  86%     Med   65%     High  96%
KHKY       High  88%     Low   58%     High  96%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     Low   48%     Med   78%     High 100%
KAND       Med   70%     Low   57%     High  95%     High  87%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1008 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020315-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1008 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. A vigorous cold front will
sweep through the region late Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected, some of which could become severe with damaging winds
and frequent lightning being the primary threats.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...Frost/freeze possible. Temperatures are expected to
drop to near or below freezing early Saturday morning. With the
early start to the growing season, a Freeze Warning may be needed.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.