An upper trough, an approaching cold front and pre-frontal surface trough, combined with daytime heating, and sufficient atmospheric moisture and instability to produce scattered severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. A few of which also produced locally heavy rain and flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CAE wrote it up.
An upper trough, an approaching cold front and pre-frontal surface trough, combined with daytime heating, and sufficient atmospheric moisture and instability to produce scattered severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. A few of which also produced locally heavy rain and flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Columbia, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 4:11 PM EST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 511 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front will stall over the area tonight, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms which may linger through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast area ahead of the cold front and its associated pre-frontal trough. The high-resolution models display the greatest thunderstorm coverage late this afternoon and evening as strong short wave trough approaches from Tennessee. Models indicate relatively strong upper level divergence and associated lift thru 06z. Coverage may diminish late because of nocturnal cooling and previous convection, but a threat will linger overnight associated with convergence ahead of the cold front and upper troughing moving into the region. A limiting factor for severe thunderstorms is relatively weak deep-layer shear. However, moderate to strong instability and heavy precipitation loading supports possible damaging wind with the thunderstorms. So pulse storms expected with the possibility of some organization this evening. Nam qpf appears overdone and likely because of convective feedback. But with precipitable water around 2 inches expect heavy rain potential with some localized flooding possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The main front will stall out across the forecast area Sunday, and this will remain the focusing mechanism for additional showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night. Several short wave troughs rotating through amplified eastern CONUS upper level trough. Nam appears to dry out upper levels quicker late Sunday than other models. With front in the area prefer higher pops thru Sunday night. Shear remains weak, with moderate instability Sunday, and cannot rule out a few strong or even severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will begin to cool off slightly as the front moves into the area, with readings near 90. Overnight lows each night in the middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Although the frontal boundary in the area will continue to weaken Monday, there should still be enough low-level moisture and instability across the area to aid in the development of scattered afternoon and evening convection. Models showing the potential for a weak cut-off upper low developing over the area Tuesday through Wednesday as the cwa gets squeezed between the strong ridge across the central US and another ridge in the western Atlantic. Ridge retrogrades late in the period. Still expecting the convection to become more diurnal and more scattered to isolated later in the week. Temperatures near normal early in the period but warming trend late week to above normal again. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread convection crossing the area into tonight...with fog and stratus during the early morning and sunrise hours. Thunderstorms have developed across the area with several thunderstorms around the terminals. Frontal boundary approaching from the Upstate with another line of thunderstorms will move into the area this evening. Expect the thunderstorms to diminish around 03z...possibly later as remaining outflow boundaries intersect and generate new cells. Main concern with thunderstorms is potential for strong wind gusts. With rain expected will see stratus and fog develop through the early morning and sunrise hours with with IFR cigs and vsbys at all terminals. Conditions will return to VFR from 14z through the end of the period with cumulus and another round of convection again developing near the end of the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High confidence in showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions through Monday as a front stalls over the area. Low confidence in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. High potential for late night/early morning stratus and fog each day. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Columbia SC 1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-161600- Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield- McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington- Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon- Bamberg- 1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could possibly contain damaging wind. The storms may also contain heavy rain with localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A few thunderstorms with damaging wind will be possible Sunday into Monday along a stalled front. The storms may also contain heavy rain with localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
413 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0347 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW VANCE 33.46N 80.44W
07/15/2017 ORANGEBURG SC LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWN 9843 OLD NUMBER SIX HIGHWAY.
&&
DAPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
417 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0350 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE VANCE 33.45N 80.40W
07/15/2017 E60 MPH ORANGEBURG SC PUBLIC
MILL CREEK MARINA REPORTED ESTMD WIND GUSTS
OF 50-60 MPH.
&&
DASpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Columbia SC 421 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017 SCZ025-030-152045- Aiken-Edgefield- 421 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL EDGEFIELD AND WEST CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTIES... At 419 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was in the Belvedere area. The storm was moving east near 20 mph and toward the Graniteville area. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... North Augusta, Belvedere, Clearwater, Gloverville and Burnettown. LAT...LON 3350 8198 3354 8201 3368 8180 3340 8175 TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 273DEG 3KT 3355 8196
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
437 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0357 PM HAIL VANCE 33.43N 80.42W
07/15/2017 E0.75 INCH ORANGEBURG SC PUBLIC
PEA TO DIME-SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN VANCE.
REPORT RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&
DAPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
528 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 WNW WINNSBORO 34.42N 81.30W
07/15/2017 FAIRFIELD SC LAW ENFORCEMENT
FAIRFIELD COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS TREES DOWN
ALONG NEWBERRY RD NEAR FAIRFIELD RD.
&&
ACMSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Columbia SC 529 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017 SCZ015-016-022-152215- Lancaster-Chesterfield-Kershaw- 529 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LANCASTER... MUCH OF CHESTERFIELD AND PARTS OF KERSHAW COUNTIES... At 526 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms extended from southeast Lancaster County through central Chesterfield County. Movement was east near 15 mph. Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible with these storms... especially in the area extending from Taxahaw to Jefferson. Very heavy rain may lead to ponding of water in poor-drainage area. Do not attempt to drive on flooded roads. Locations impacted include... Pageland, Kershaw, Chesterfield, Heath Springs, Jefferson, Ruby and Mount Croghan. LAT...LON 3452 8071 3474 8067 3480 8005 3460 8008 TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 290DEG 49KT 3462 8044
The Columbia radar (KCAE), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:32 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
ASOS unit at Augusta Bush Field Airport measured a peak thunderstorm wind gust of 53 knots, or 61 MPH.
Burke Co dispatch reported power lines down on Hwy 56 between Hwy 80 and Old Waynesboro Rd.
Burke Co dispatch reported trees down on Bates Rd at Clark Place Rd.
Richmond Co dispatch reported trees down on power lines. Time estimated.
ASOS unit at Augusta Bush Field Airport measured a thunderstorm wind gust of 51 MPH.
Public report, via social media, of 2 to 3 feet of water flowing over the road from Rocky Creek, near Milledgeville Rd and Wheeless Rd, with photo confirmation.
Richmond Co dispatch received a report of water flowing into a home on Lisbon Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 700729, 700726, 700727, 700728, 700730, 700720, 700721.