Drought in Georgia, February 1 to 28, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1056 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect continued warming though Wednesday as southerly flow boosts
temperatures to much above normal levels. A dry cold front will
slide south into the region by Thursday dropping temperatures back
below normal Friday and through the weekend. A low-pressure system
and associated cold front will approach from the west at the end of
the weekend with light to moderate precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EST Tuesday: Dewpoints are running lower than forecast
along the northern tier with cloud cover a little lighter than
expected, and temperatures are trending above the forecast. Made
some minor changes to hourly trends and bumped up overnight lows
just a tad but  not enough to make any significant wording
differences.

A broad/low amplitude trough will remain across the eastern Conus
through the period. Sensible weather will remain largely uneventful,
with the unseasonably warm temps being the primary story. In fact,
mins tonight will be about 10 degrees warmer than climo, while maxes
Wed will be a solid 15 degrees above normal. A boundary extending
from a southern Plains cyclone will drape across the TN valley into
the central Appalachians tomorrow, with associated moisture and
westerly flow across the boundary possibly yielding a shower or two
near the TN border. Slight chance pops are carried there during the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As 230 PM EST Tuesday:  The short term fcst period kicks off on
Wednesday evening amidst quasizonal H5 flow across the Southern
Appalachians, embedded within the base of a broad longwave trof.
At the surface, cold/broad Canadian high pressure will be surging
through the Plains into the MS/OH/TN valleys behind an encroaching
cold front.  Said front looks to impact the NC high terrain around
fcst initialization, with modestly moist wnwly H85 flow promoting
upslope rain/snow showers along the TN line, while the low terrain
remains dry amidst swly surface flow.  The cold front will make
a push through the mtns, into the fthills/piedmont overnight
into Thursday morning, likely with little fanfare other than the
aforementioned mtn precip thanks to the lack of any significant
synoptic forcing.  Guidance seems to be in relatively good agreement
regarding frontal progression along/south of the I85 corridor
around daybreak Thursday allowing for cooler/drier air to advect
into the region through the day as high pressure builds from the
north, as the front looks to stall out in the vicinity of I20 by
Thursday night.

As quickly as the front stalls, a approaching upper shortwave
impulse and developing swly H85 flow looks to push the front
back northward, with lvl moist upglide initiating atop the
periphery of a building high pressure wedge across the fcst area.
As this precipitation commences, thermal profiles will favor all
liquid ptypes across the Upstate, Northeast GA, and portions of
Western NC south of I40, while locales northward could see a mix
of snow/sleet and or rain/fzra through the night with minimal
accumulations expected into late Friday morning before the upper
impulse advects east.  At that point, precip chances will diminish
across the area, all ahead of another approaching cold front and
subsequent high pressure to round out the fcst.  Temperatures on
Thursday are fcst to be above normal levels, before falling to
below normal amidst the developing wedge airmass on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tue: A frontal zone is expected to linger over the CWFA
Fri night and Sat morning per consensus of GFS/EC/CMC. High pressure
arriving from the northwest will push this front southward as a cold
front and out of the area Saturday. There remain some differences in
how soon this occurs, and also on whether precip develops along its
leading edge (i.e., over the southern half of the area). Low PoPs
will continue to be advertised early Saturday, but the majority of
the day and night will be dry, as high pressure shifts from the
central Appalachians to the Tidewater region.

Guidance consensus continues to point to a modest low pressure system
crossing the northern Great Lakes early Sunday, which brings moist
return flow over the area. Compared to the runs I looked at 24 hours
ago, the models have trended later in their onset of QPF. The
critical question remains whether the cold dome of high pressure will
still have enough influence over the area for that precip to
accumulate as something other than rain. With the later onset it
appears less likely than before, especially as that gives more time
for the high to drift offshore, and therefore less threat of an
in-situ wedge forming. Per profiles and partial thicknesses, a small
window of FZRA and/or PL is possible in portions of the NC mountains
and Piedmont north of I-40. There is still time for models to trend
one way or the other as far as how much cold air is present near the
sfc when precip begins--so of course, monitor subsequent forecasts.

Once the cold front associated with the Sunday low departs the area,
we again will see a brief settled period thanks to the high pressure
behind it, and a low-amplitude upper ridge over the Southeast.
However the GFS and EC both depict a Plains shortwave picking up the
front and funneling moist Gulf air into the lower Mississippi Valley
by early Tuesday. This could set the stage for a stormy mid-week
across the Southeast, though that is beyond the time range of this
forecast.

Saturday and Sunday, max temps will stay a little below normal, and
mins near normal. Temps two or three categories above normal are
expected Monday and Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: No changes to the KCLT TAF for the 03z
AMD. VFR through the period with some passing high cloudiness
tonight. Could see BKN cirrus along with some FEW-SCT low VFR clouds
by Wednesday afternoon especially for KAVL/KHKY as an upper
disturbance passes through. SW winds around 10kt this evening will
drop to below 5kt overnight, picking up again with mixing by late
Wednesday morning. Some low-end gusts possible. Strong winds aloft
are beginning to subside but could still see some brief LLWS at KAVL
in the pre-dawn hours.

Outlook: Another dry day is expected on Thursday. An upper air
disturbance will bring a chance of light precip and restrictions
early Friday. Another round of precip/possibly restrictions could
occur Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
424 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
424 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07