Lightning Strike in Florida, May 17, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday...Marine showers increased a little more in
coverage than anticipated this morning with current activity
stretching Nwd into central Brevard Co and to some degree inland
over Osceola Co. The Vero Beach Airport received nearly half an
inch in a brief thunderstorm earlier in the afternoon with most
other areas no greater than one or two tenths along the
immediate coast. Tonights forecast features sct mention of low
top showers over the Treasure Cst and more Isold points N of Vero
Beach into the overnight hours.

Short range guid including HRRR does not indicate much in the way
of potential leading into Thu and will keep forecast to no more
than Isold activity along the Srn coastal zones for Thursday. With
the ridge over the Wrn Atlc becoming oriented more seaward during
Thu, winds will be a category lower than today with around 10 to
15 mph expected most areas with a little higher south near Lake
Okeechobee by early afternoon. The strong marine influence will
keep mile overnight temps in the U60s to M70s. with highs
tomorrow in the M80s to L90s.

Friday... Surface high pressure over the Atlantic will continue the
onshore flow pattern for east central Florida. Easterly winds
combined with higher moisture values will increase the precip
chances on Friday, mainly south of I-4. Showers will be likely along
the coast and in marine zones Friday night, as strong onshore
continues.

Minimum temperatures remain mild inland in the low 70s, but increase
along the coast to mid 70s, with the potential to tie or break
record warm minimums. High temperatures continue with mid to upper
90s inland and mid 80s along the coast due to the onshore wind.

Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...Reinforcing high pressure well north
of the area will maintain a east-southeast wind flow across central
Florida this weekend. Ridge aloft will gradually weaken and shift
eastward into early next week, as a shortwave trough pushes through
the southeast U.S. Sunday night into Monday. This break down of the
ridge combined with lingering moisture in the wake of the weak
easterly wave, as well as an approaching frontal boundary early next
week will keep chance PoPs (30-50 percent) in the forecast each day.
In addition enough instability will exist for isolated afternoon
thunderstorms. Highs will continue to reach the mid-upper 80s along
the coast to low 80s farther inland, with lows in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Sct-Isold SHRA S of a line FM KMLB-KISM with brief
MVFR conds in LCL rain affected location through 18/03z then
becmg VFR. Expect Gusts to around 25KT MNLY ALG CST through
18/01Z. Small shower chance continues NR KMLB-KSUA southward into
south Florida and inland to KOBE overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Tonight and Thursday...Breezy onshore gradient winds of
15 to 20 kt over the southern segments with 5 FT seas increasing
to near 5-6 ft offshore and over the gulf stream tonight. Will
maintain Caution Stmt for the 0-60NM Sebastian Inlet-Jupiter
Inlet and the 20-60NM offshore Brevard segment.

Friday...Strong onshore flow due to high pressure in the Atlantic.
Winds 10-15 kts in northern zones and 15-20 kts along the
Treasure Coast. Nearshore seas 3-4 ft and 4-5 ft offshore.

Weekend...On Sat, easterly pressure gradient will support 10-15
knots, except near 15 knots across the south. On Sunday, the
gradient should decrease slightly and support 10 knots across the
north and 10-15 knots elsewhere.  Seas 3 to 4 feet with a choppy
wind wave.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively higher RH conditions in the afternoons
will continue through late week due to strong onshore wind
component. Spotty rains will provide additional relief near the
coast tonight and into Thursday, especially south of Sebastian
Inlet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  84  72  86 /  10  10  10  20
MCO  69  91  71  92 /  10  10  10  20
MLB  76  85  76  86 /  10  10  20  20
VRB  73  86  75  87 /  20  10  20  30
LEE  71  94  71  93 /  10   0  10  20
SFB  69  91  71  91 /  10   0  10  20
ORL  70  90  72  91 /  10   0  10  20
FPR  74  86  74  87 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Kelly/Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
620 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-180000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
620 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
East southeast winds of up to 15 to 20 knots over the Atlantic
waters will produce seas of up to 6 feet, making for poor boating
conditions for operators of small craft out to 60 nautical miles
offshore between Sebastian and Jupiter Inlets, and beyond 20
nautical miles offshore Brevard County.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Weather and ocean conditions will produce a Moderate Risk of rip
currents at the east central Florida today. The greatest threat
from rip currents will be through about 10 AM this morning and
again after 400 PM this afternoon. In addition, the surf will be
rather rough and choppy all day due to increasing onshore winds.

Check with the local beach patrol for additional information
about ocean hazards and remember to always swim only within sight
of a lifeguard. Never swim alone.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
Gusty east-southeast winds and continued dry soil and vegetation
conditions in most areas will produce a high danger for spread of
any new wildfires or flareups of existing smoldering burns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
The surf zone and nearshore Atlantic will be hazardous through late
week due to rip currents as well as rough, choppy surf generated
by brisk onshore winds.

Increasing moisture from late this week through early next week
will result in an isolated lightning storm threat each afternoon
beginning on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Cristaldi