Drought in Florida, May 1 to 31, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
825 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.AVIATION...
East to southeast winds will remain around 15 knots tonight over
the east coast taf sites, while at KAPF will be around 10 knots.
Periods of MVFR CIGS and brief light showers are still possible
over some of the Atlantic terminals, for which TEMPOs are in place
through 02Z. Then mainly VFR should prevail overnight with CIGS
around 5K ft at all terminals. Winds should again increase on
Monday with more shower activity developing around the Atlantic
terminal in the afternoon hours.

17/AR

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 741 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

UPDATE...
Latest radar imagery shows a line of showers over the Atlantic
moving onshore into Miami Dade County this evening. This activity
will be brief and diminish after sunset. East to southeast winds
are gradually lowering to less than 15 to 20 mph at this time.
Winds will gradually diminish in the interior and along the coast
during the overnight hours as pressure gradient weakens. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s along the
east coast and low 70s interior and west. The rest of the forecast
remains on track with chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic waters continues
to provide breezy to windy east to southeast winds across South
Florida this afternoon. Streamer showers will continue to develop
along the east coast metro areas and move into the interior of
Broward and Palm Beach Counties but will quickly diminish this
evening. No significant rainfall accumulation is expected with
this activity.

Latest water vapor imagery shows the strong low pressure system
over the Central Plains while strong ridge remains in control
over the SE Plains. At the surface, a strong high pressure is
observed over the western Atlantic. Boundary layer mixing from
the winds should limit the development of any dense fog tonight,
thus have not included on this package. Low temperatures tonight
will remain 5 degrees above average across the forecast area.

Next week: Low pressure approaches the Panhandle of FL pushing
the ridge eastward. As a result, the pressure gradient across
the FL peninsula weakens slightly but the moisture content will
begin to increase. GFS forecast PW values between 1.5" to 1.7"
through mid week. Diurnal heating, combined with this increase
in moisture, will lead to the change of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the interior. Through mid week, the
front to the north will wash out, but residual moisture should
continue chances of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon. Max temperatures through Wednesday are forecast
slightly above normal.

Thursday through early next weekend: Both the GFS and ECMWF
forecast a trough deepening over Central Plains with an
associated cold front stretching southward over the Gulf. Moist
airmass ahead of this low will bring an increased chance for
showers and thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday. The GFS has
been consistent with the front pushing through the region late
Friday. However, the frontal passage with the ECMWF continues to
delay into the weekend. Still nearly a week out, confidence on
exact timing is relatively low. Have added slight chance of
showers through Saturday forecast to account for the uncertainty.

MARINE...
The winds will be from  the southeast around 20 knots over most
of South Florida waters though Monday and gradually lowered as
gradient weakens. Therefore, the SCA is in effect until early
Monday. Southeast winds shift to the southeast and remain light to
moderate through the week with a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible over the coastal waters this week. A front
moves through the waters by the end of the week shifting winds
towards the north to northwest next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...
The latest continue to show relative humidity values above 40
percent across much of the forecast area. A few isolated spots
could see brief periods of lower relative humidity values but
will not be as widespread across Collier County this afternoon.
Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch has been canceled. Light to
moderate southeast winds return into next week with chance of
wetting precipitation across the forecast area. As a result,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  75  85  74  85 /  30  30  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  78  86  75  86 /  20  20  20  40
Miami            77  86  75  87 /  20  30  20  50
Naples           73  88  73  87 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
423 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
010830-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
423 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...High Risk of Rip Currents Atlantic Beaches Through Monday...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the Southeast
Florida Atlantic beaches through tonight. Swimming is not recommended.
Numerous rescues were reported on Saturday. Heed the advise of the
beach patrol.

Wind: Winds of around 20 to 25 mph and gusty will persist tonight.
Small craft advisory is in effect for the Atlantic waters through
tonight. Small crafts are advised to remain in port.

Waves: Waves of 4 to 6 feet and occasionally higher will impact the
Atlantic waters through the period. This will result in hazardous
conditions for small crafts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

The high risk of rip currents will persist through Monday before
subsiding. Marine conditions will be improving on Monday across the
Atlantic waters. Conditions should continue to improve as the week
progresses with hazardous marine conditions developing late in the
week or early next weekend across the offshore gulf waters of Naples.

A slight chance to a chance of mainly daytime thunderstorms will
develop for the mainland starting on Monday and lasting through much
of the week.

No other hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.