Wildfire in Florida, March 31, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
213 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

.NEAR TERM/.../THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A cold front will slide Southeast of the region Tonight, with high
pressure building from the West on Saturday. A few spotty showers
will be possible ahead of the frontal boundary this afternoon.
Otherwise, skies will clear this evening into Tonight, with
sunshine for Saturday.

Temperatures will remain above normal this period.

.SHORT TERM /Saturday Night Through Sunday Night/...

An upper level ridge will remain over the region through the
period ahead of an upper low/trough. The upper low/trough will
slide slowly east from the desert southwest Saturday evening to
eastern Texas by Monday morning. At the surface, high pressure
over the Ohio Valley will slide east to the coast of North
Carolina through the Sunday night. An area of low pressure will
develop across Texas Sunday and Sunday night. Light winds Sunday
night will become easterly on Sunday and then southeasterly Sunday
night. Temperatures will continue to be hot with near record high
temperatures, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s inland, and
near 80 to the lower 80s along the coast.

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...

Models are trending further north and slower with the upper trough
and surface low. The GFS has a broad surface low from the
stretching from the southeast to the Ohio Valley by evening, with
prefrontal trough moving across the panhandle of Florida and
across southwest and central Georgia. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms could develop Monday afternoon along the east
coast sea breeze. Otherwise, the main convection is forecast to
push into the the west and northwest portions of the region before
midnight, and the rest of the region by Tuesday morning. With the
upper dynamics trending further away, the convection may weaken as
it moves through the region overnight. Any convection leftover may
linger across the southern portion of the region through the day
on Tuesday. The cold front is not forecast to make it through the
region. Low and mid level moisture is forecast to lift back
northward into the area on Wednesday ahead of the next upper
trough moving through the central and southern Plains, bringing a
chance for showers and storms to portions of northeast Florida. A
deep upper trough is then forecast to stretch from the Great Lakes
to the northern Gulf coast Thursday, with a strong cold front
pushing into the region, bringing another good chance for showers
and thunderstorms to the region. Cooler weather is then forecast
for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers will be possible this afternoon, otherwise prevailing
VFR conditions are expected this 18z TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross area waters Tonight, followed by building
high pressure through the weekend. The high will move to the East
on Monday as a cold front approaches. This front will cross area
waters Monday night into Tuesday. After a period of high pressure
on Wednesday, another frontal system will affect the region later
in the week.

RIP CURRENTS: Low risk through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  82  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  78  61  77 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  57  85  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  61  81  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  55  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  57  87  56  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Kennedy/Struble/McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
509 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-011000-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
509 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight...

Westerly winds gusting to 20 to 35 mph will subside early this
evening. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Thunderstorms are expected on Monday...and again on Thursday.
Strong to severe storms are possible.

Small craft advisory conditions are possible over the coastal
waters Monday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
536 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     WILDFIRE         5 WSW FERNANDINA BEACH  30.62N 81.52W
03/31/2017                   NASSAU             FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EMA AND US FOREST SERVICE REPORTED WILDFIRE AT
            NEAR 37 ACRES. VOLUNTEER EVACUATIONS OF 12 HOMES. FIRE
            WAS AT LEAST 75 PERCENT CONTAINED. SMOKE PLUME SEEN ON
            JAX RADAR.

&&

ASHASHY