Rip Current in Florida, March 13, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1115 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...High rain chances today...

Currently...Inverted sfc trough just offshore the FL east coast is
amplifying once again as low pressure over the north central gulf of
mexico pushes east toward FL peninsula. In response, winds will veer
southerly today with increasing rain chances through the day and
especially this evening. The convection over the Atlc will lift N/NE
and will not be a threat to land but the east coast sea breeze
should spark scattered showers along the coast through mid aftn.

Deeper moisture and isentropic lift will generate mostly
cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers moving NE into the
afternoon. especially across the north. Isolated storms may develop
during the mid afternoon where sfc heating and sea/lake
breeze boundary interactions overlap. Stronger forcing will move in
this evening and produce widespread showers and embedded storms
across the north half of the FA, then pressing SE with the cold
front overnight across the south.

Increasing wind fields will pose a small risk of strong storms as
they push onshore the Gulf coast after sunset. While the storms
should weaken as they push into EC FL, cannot rule out an isolated
strong storm from Osceola county northward.

Today-Tonight (previous)...High rain chances remain in the forecast,
as low over the Gulf shifts east along front that extends across the
area, and through the northern Florida peninsula tonight. Deep
moisture and forced ascent ahead of the low should again lead to
numerous showers and isolated storms developing across the region
this afternoon. Then more widespread rainfall is expected to cross
the region into this evening as low crosses the state, dragging
front back south through the area overnight. Have PoPs increasing to
70 percent over much of the area this afternoon, up to 80 percent
across north central Florida into this evening. Rain chances will
then decrease overnight as showers and any lingering storms ahead of
southward moving cold front push offshore.

More solid cloud cover over the north should keep temperatures from
rising above the mid to upper 70s today, while farther south of
Orlando highs in the low 80s are expected. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 50s across northern Lake/Volusia counties to low 60s
along the coast from Melbourne southward.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR CIGs from 035AGL. Numerous showers and
isolated storms into the afternoon and more widespread rainfall
across the region into this evening will produce IFR/MVFR
conditions across much of the area, becoming prevailing this
evening and overnight as low pressure crosses the state.

&&

.MARINE...
RTMA analysis shows a small area of 20 knot east winds offshore Cape
Canaveral which has built seas 6-7 feet at Scripps buoy 41116. These
winds will veer SE this afternoon and decrease to 15 knots.
Otherwise, no sigificant changes to current coastal waters forecast.

Today-Tonight...Winds will become S/SE this morning around
10-15 knots as quasi-stationary front shifts slightly northward
ahead of an approaching low over the Gulf. Wind speeds should then
gradually increase up to 15-20 knots by late this afternoon over the
offshore waters and nearshore south of Sebastian Inlet as low nears
the west Fl coast.

Boating conditions will then deteriorate further into tonight,
especially offshore as low crosses the northern Florida peninsula.
Model guidance has come in stronger with a surge in W/SW flow, south
and offshore of the nearshore Volusia waters, with current forecast
having wind speeds increase up to around 25 knots offshore late this
evening and overnight. However, still some uncertainty in how far
north and strong this surge will be into tonight, depending on the
track/strength of the low. For now have issued SCA for the offshore
waters beginning late this evening, but this may need to be extended
to the nearshore waters of Brevard County and Treasure Coast for
tonight if offshore flow looks to be stronger.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  56  71  45 /  70  80  10   0
MCO  79  59  74  48 /  70  80  10   0
MLB  80  61  76  49 /  70  70  10   0
VRB  82  62  77  50 /  70  70  10   0
LEE  76  57  72  45 /  80  80  10   0
SFB  78  58  73  47 /  70  80  10   0
ORL  78  59  74  48 /  70  80  10   0
FPR  82  62  78  48 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Wednesday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Kelly/Sedlock

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
931 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-132400-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
931 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are again expected to
develop across east central Florida this afternoon, with more
widespread rainfall and a slight chance for storms this evening.
Main threats from any storms will be dangerous cloud to ground
lightning, heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. However a
few stronger storms may develop across west central Florida later
this evening and advance across east central Florida later in the
evening and overnight, producing gusty winds up to around 45 mph.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents will exist across the
beaches of east central Florida today. The greatest threat for rip
currents will occur during the afternoon hours due to tidal effects.
Only enter the surf near lifeguards, and never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Any isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms that form near
the coast will be able to push offshore as they move east to
northeast up to 20 to 25 knots. A greater threat areawide will
occur later this evening and overnight as a more organized
area of showers and isolated storms push off of the east coast.
Wind gusts in excess of 35 knots will be possible.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected across the waters,
mainly late today into tonight as an area of low pressure over
the Gulf shifts east and crosses the northern Florida peninsula.
South to southwest winds will increase up to 15 to 20 knots
offshore, and nearshore south of Sebastian Inlet late this
afternoon. Winds will then quickly increase out of the west to
southwest up to 20 to 25 knots late this evening and overnight as
the low crosses the state, building seas to 7 feet well offshore
late overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous tomorrow into mid
week, ahead of and behind a reinforcing strong cold front that
will move across central Florida Tuesday night. This front will
usher in colder temperatures during this middle portion of this
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Weitlich/Sedlock