Tornado and Flood in Florida, June 6, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
909 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.UPDATE...
First shortwave is exiting into the Atlantic this evening, and
scattered showers and a few storms remained across the region. An
upper low will move along the northern Gulf coast overnight
tonight. Only isolated to low end scattered showers are expected.
A shortwave is forecast to move ahead of the upper low and push
into the Big Bend region Tuesday morning. Global models and high
res guidance indicate widespread showers and scattered storms
developing across the northeast Gulf late tonight and moving
across the region through the day on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall and
localized flooding is possible. WPC QPF has actually increased by
about 1 inch across the Suwannee River basin for 12-18Z on
Tuesday, and expect 2-3 inches of rain across the western portion
of the region with locally higher amounts during this timeframe.
1-2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts is expected across
the rest of the area through the day. A low level jet around 30-35
knots will move across the region during the day on Tuesday, and
some strong to isolated severe storms are possible. The limiting
factor will be instability, with cloudy skies and showers/storms
moving in early in the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers may get near the TAF sites overnight. Otherwise,
light winds and VFR conditions will prevail. A shortwave will move
towards the region late in the night, and showers and some storms will
begin to move into northeast Florida towards daybreak. Widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected throughout the
day on Tuesday, with prevailing MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds 10-15 knots nearshore and 15-20 knots offshore
will prevail overnight tonight, with seas of 3-5 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  83  70  83 /  40  80  60  80
SSI  74  82  74  82 /  40  80  60  80
JAX  72  82  72  85 /  50 100  50  70
SGJ  71  83  72  84 /  60  90  50  80
GNV  72  83  72  85 /  60 100  70  80
OCF  72  83  73  85 /  70 100  50  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Kennedy/Peterson/Elsenheimer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
540 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-060945-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
540 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A surge of tropical moisture will overspread our area this
afternoon from the Gulf of Mexico, accompanied by an initial
wave of heavy showers and a few embedded thunderstorms that will
progress quickly northeastward across our region from the late
morning through the afternoon hours. The primary threats from this
activity today will be briefly heavy downpours and cloud to
ground lightning strikes.

Low pressure will approach the northern Gulf coast states
overnight, pushing another wave of heavy showers and embedded
thunderstorms northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico after
midnight. Activity will overspread inland portions of north
central Florida, the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast Georgia
during the predawn hours on Tuesday. Heavy downpours, frequent
lightning strikes and gusty winds will be the threats with this
activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...
Waves of heavy rainfall and embedded strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible through early Thursday ahead of
an approaching cold front. A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms may traverse our region from west to east on Tuesday
afternoon, with damaging wind gusts, localized flooding from
heavy downpours, and frequent lightning strikes being the primary
threats. An isolated tornado will also be possible within this
squall line. The Storm Prediction Center has placed southern
portions of southeast Georgia and all of northeast and north
central Florida within a marginal risk for severe thunderstorm
development on Tuesday. A marginal risk continues for most of
northeast and north central Florida on Wednesday. Rainfall totals
for this event of 2 to 4 inches are forecast, with local totals
potentially much higher. The threat for flooding, particularly in
urban locations, will increase by midweek.

Isolated to widely scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected on Friday and Saturday, with scattered
to numerous thunderstorms possible by Sunday afternoon.

Southwesterly winds will strengthen over the coastal waters on
Tuesday evening as low pressure approaches from the Florida
panhandle. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for the offshore
coastal waters on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to self activate if warnings are issued,
particularly later tonight and Tuesday. We encourage spotters to
report rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

Nelson