Flood and Lightning Strike in Florida, June 24 to 25, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
906 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
No change from previous forecast as much of the area is in dry
slot with PWATs close to 1.5" although a moist pocket of air with
PWATs close to 2 inches is across the St Johns River Basin south
of Jacksonville and this area was able to trigger some widely
scattered showers and storms as the Atlc Coast Sea Breeze Front
pushed inland and these will linger in this region until around
midnight as they weaken and drift offshore. Otherwise approaching
pre-frontal showers/storms will weaken as they push into inland SE
GA overnight with a few widely scattered showers/isolated storms
mainly North and West of Waycross through the overnight hours.
Warm overnight with generally mid 70s inland and upper 70s inland.
On Sunday these moisture sources from the South and approaching
cold front from the Northwest will moisten across all of NE FL and
SE GA and expect scattered to numerous showers and storms across
entire region. Lingering warm temps aloft will still suppress
severe weather threat but still expect more storm coverage and
greater intensity with stronger storms where mergers occur with
gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
Prior to convection during the afternoon hours still expect
widespread lower to middle 90s inland and near 90 at the coast
with the SW winds ahead of the front keeping the Atlc Coast Sea
Breeze closer to the coast likely only making it inland to the
I-95 corridor late in the day, and this will likely be the scene
of the strongest storms as the convection inland tracks towards
the E/NE and collides with stationary sea breeze and an isolated
severe storm not out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers in the Vicinity of KSGJ until 02z otherwise VFR
through the night. SW flow off the GOMEX may bring in some low
stratus overnight to inland NE FL Taf Sites and have kept the
SCT008 potential at KGNV around 09z that may actually reach
KVQQ/KJAX as well by sunrise but have kept it SCT010 for now.
Shower/Storm activity will be on the increase Sunday afternoon and
have just added some VCSH/VCTS at all TAF sites to trend in this
direction.

&&

.MARINE...
SCEC conds will continue tonight with S to SW winds at 15-20 knots
and seas generally 3 to 5 ft. A few showers pushing off the NE FL
coast into the waters this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  92  72  86 /  30  60  20  30
SSI  77  88  76  83 /  10  50  40  40
JAX  74  94  73  88 /  10  50  30  50
SGJ  75  90  74  86 /  20  60  40  60
GNV  73  92  73  89 /  10  60  30  60
OCF  74  91  74  89 /  20  60  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Hess/Sandrik/Corless

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
915 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-250730-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
915 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight...

Moderate risk of rip currents for northeast Florida and southeast
Georgia beaches.

Isolated Storms will be possible through the night, mainly across
inland Southeast Georgia ahead of an approaching cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Numerous storms are expected Sunday and Monday as a weak cold
front enters the region. At least scattered storms will be
possible Tuesday through Friday, with the best chances across
northeast Florida. Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning,
and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.