Tornadoes in Florida, July 7, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
325 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tonight...A few showers and storms at mid afternoon mainly
between areas west of Vero Beach to near Lake Okeechobee. Latest
meso model runs indicate additional development to the north and
west of these areas as the sea breeze boundary drifts inland
through the late afternoon and interacts with cell from the west
coast boundary into early evening. Kept an isolated PoP into
the early evening hours. Lightning and heavy downpours due to
slow storm movement will be main concerns, but lingering dry air
aloft may allow strong downburst wind where boundaries collide.

Saturday...Ridge axis will be displaced southward from troffing
occurring in the eastern U.S. Some slight cooling aloft and
rising moisture into the region expected to allow a higher
coverage of diurnal showers and storms to return to the area. Low
level ridge axis drifts a little farther south to around Lake
Okeechobee, with light s-sw flow surface through mid levels. This
will allow earlier onset and faster inland progression of the east
coast sea breeze over the southern sections versus the north.
Highest PoPs will taper down from 50-60% north to around 40%
immediate Treasure Coast. Afternoon activity will drift slowly
toward the NNE into the evening hours.

Sun-Mon...Previous forecast persists Sunday, with the ridge axis
positioned over central FL. High PWAT values near 2" provides for
likely PoPs over a majority of the area for Sunday. On Monday, the
ridge drifts slightly northward, which keeps flow from the
southeast. This stronger flow will allow for showers and storms to
push farther inland, so highest coverage is kept to interior
counties (40-50%). Summertime temperatures continue with highs in
the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

Tue-Thu...(previous)Troughing pattern over the ern CONUS will weaken
and fill in as the supporting H30-H20 jet streak lifts into the
New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Axis of the Bermuda Ridge
will lift north of the FL panhandle, allowing low/mid lvl flow to
shift to a more easterly regime. This pattern tends to focus
diurnal precip over the west half of the peninsula, with PoPs over
the east half generally blo 50pct. One caveat will be the future
track of TD 4, which ECMWF/GFS models estimate could impact the FL
peninsula by midweek. However, neither brings it through as
anything more than an open tropical wave.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR outside reductions in shra/tsra through around
sunset, especially inland areas south of KISM to Lake Okeechobee,
but isold activity may extend northward to around KISM-KLEE.

&&

.MARINE...Tonight-Sat...South winds 10kt or less, becoming
southeast near the coast in the afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft near shore,
up to 3 feet well offshore. Slight chance showers and storms.

Sun-Mon...Showers and storms in marine zones continue, with
better coverage nearshore on Sunday (40-50%), decreasing on Monday
(20- 30%). As the ridge shifts northward, flow will become
dominantly SE, with winds 5-10 kts and seas 2-3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  75  89 /  20  50  30  60
MCO  75  93  75  92 /  20  60  20  60
MLB  76  91  75  89 /  20  50  30  60
VRB  74  92  75  90 /  20  40  30  50
LEE  77  93  76  92 /  20  60  20  60
SFB  76  93  75  92 /  20  60  20  60
ORL  77  93  76  91 /  20  60  20  60
FPR  73  92  74  89 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Glitto/Smith/Sedlock

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1028 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-072400-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1028 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Moisture is forecast to gradually increase from south to north.
This should allow for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
storms along the inland moving east coast sea breeze boundary. The
highest coverage is expected to be over interior sections from
south of Orlando to Okeechobee. A few strong storms with frequent
lightning and gusty winds of 40 to 45 mph will be possible. Slow
storm motion will also allow for local 2 inch downpours.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Any thunderstorms that form this afternoon will have the potential
to produce wind gusts up to 35 knots and affect inland lakes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will increase over much
of the area this weekend. The highest storm coverage should then
shift to the interior early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Lascody/Sedlock