NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 12:49 PM EST, 2 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 2, 12:49 PM EST, 2 hours 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1249 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017
.AVIATION...
Southeasterly winds in the 15 to near 20 knot range with higher
gusts are impacting South Florida terminals this afternoon. Very
brief periods of MVFR ceilings are possible for the Atlantic coast
terminals this afternoon with passing showers at the terminals
with all terminals assigned VCSH at 18z. Southeasterly regional
flow continues to bring an influx of low level moisture into the
region and latest aviation guidance indicates periods of IFR
ceiling conditions possible after 06z. The 18z TAF's introduce low
stratus below 1 kft after 06z. But latest short range ensemble
guidance indicates lower probabilities of IFR ceilings across the
Atlantic terminals, so the 00z TAF issuance will have to determine
if periods of IFR conditions are possible early Tuesday morning.
60/BD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1007 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017/
UPDATE...
The short term winds were updated, mainly to reflect the regional
observations indicating that winds across the Atlantic waters were
likely in the 15 to 20 knot range. Regional observations,
including observations along the coastal zone, indicate winds
around the 17 to 20 knot range possible across the Atlantic waters
and portions of Biscayne Bay. So for the update of the Coastal
Waters Forecast, added a SCEC pre-cautionary statement for these
waters. The enhanced southeasterly winds will also maintain a
high chance of rip currents across the Atlantic coast beaches,
which is already been indicated in the current forecast package.
Added patchy fog to the forecast for tonight to the interior
regions and Lake region with recent guidance indicating a good
probability of occurrence. This is consistent with the more
southerly flow tonight and the elevated dew points. Otherwise,
short term forecast remains on track indicating a chance of
passing showers across the Atlantic waters and eastern portions of
the peninsula today.
60/BD
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017/
AVIATION...
VCSH will continue along the east coast through mid morning. Sky
cover should remain sct/bkn with bases between 2000-3000 ft msl.
Aft 02/1400Z, southeast winds will surface and become breezy
along the east coast, sustained 13-16 KT with occasional higher
gusts. By 02/2300Z, winds should begin to weaken.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017/
DISCUSSION...
The models continue to show mostly quiet weather for South
Florida, with the exception of some light coastal showers, along
the Atlantic coast. These showers are moving in the southeasterly
flow, around a surface high sitting over Bermuda. There is also a
500mb ridge sitting over the Bahamas, helping to keep the showers
fairly light, and isolated, to low end scattered in nature.
As the day progresses, the high will slowly breakdown, ahead of an
approaching low pressure system, and an associated 500 mb short
wave, which will be over the Mississippi valley by this evening.
This system will also turn the wind more southerly by Tuesday. The
main surface low tracks off to the northeast, reaching the mid-
Atlantic states by Tuesday afternoon. There will be an associated
cold front, which should be able to move into north Central
Florida by Wednesday 06z. Just ahead of it, a 500mb short wave
should help to produce better coverage of showers over the Florida
peninsula Monday afternoon through Tuesday. The best chances for
South Florida will be in the lake region, and along the Atlantic
coast, and its adjacent waters. Even then, models call for only a
chance of rain showers.
By Wednesday morning, a second low forms off the mid-Atlantic
coast, and interacts with the cold front, already set just off the
eastern seaboard, back into Central Florida. This low will be
strong enough to push the front through South Florida by Thursday
night. Currently, the models are indicating that the front will
mainly be a dry passage, with only a chance of some rain showers
at this time.
As this low, its cold front exit the area, a massive 500mb trough
of low pressure digs southward over the eastern half of the United
States. As it does, a sfc high will dive down the plains, and
quickly set up over the southeastern US by Friday morning. This
should push a cooler air mass into SOuth Florida for the end of
the week.
But, this is short lived, as the sfc high exits to the east by
Saturday afternoon. This is ahead of yet another fast moving
system that will zip across the Central US, almost due east, into
Virginia and North Carolina. This low, and a 500 mb low associated
with it, may deepen as it interacts with the Atlantic coast.
Models are showing this low will have a strong cold front, which
would push through South Florida by next Monday morning. As it
moves across, it may have the potential to bring a few
thunderstorms, mainly to the coastal waters. Thus have added a
mention of a slight chance of thunder to the marine zones of South
Florida for next weekend.
MARINE...
Fairly quiet marine conditions through the middle of the week,
with the exception of possible rain showers, mainly over the
Atlantic waters. By the second half of the week, there will be a
cold front that will move across the area, causing seas to build
once again. A second cold front looks to move across over the
weekend, which could bring a few thunderstorms to the South
Florida coastal waters.
BEACH FORECAST...
A continuing southeast wind at around 15kts will keep an elevated
risk for rip currents in place for the Atlantic beaches today.
Tomorrow, the wind is forecast to slightly subside,and turn more
southerly. This should result in at least a reduction to a
moderate risk for rip currents tomorrow for the Atlantic beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 73 84 69 82 / 40 40 20 30
Fort Lauderdale 74 83 69 82 / 40 30 20 30
Miami 74 83 71 83 / 30 30 20 20
Naples 68 82 70 80 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
AVIATION...60/BD