Hail in Colorado, May 31, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
445 PM MDT Wed May 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Wed May 31 2017

A nearly stationary boundary is positioned from northwest to
southeast across the forecast area this afternoon.  North of this
boundary, east-southeasterly surface flow is pooling dewpoints in
the lower to mid 50s while temperatures are rising into the lower to
middle 80s this afternoon.  This will create an axis of instability
this afternoon that may help feed any thunderstorms that develop in
the convergent area in the vicinity of the surface boundary. There
is currently little to no convective inhibition present, although
convective development is currently being limited by the subsidence
aloft from the large ridge in place over the Rockies and western
portions of the high plains.  As storms move off the Rockies and
over the plains, they may also tap into the instability present over
far northeast Colorado and then continue eastward along the axis of
instability through the evening hours.  Expect the favored area of
development to lift northeast out of the area by 08Z with dry
conditions to continue persisting through the remainder of the
overnight hours and through the day on Thursday as the axis of the
upper ridge moves east over the high plains.  Damaging winds and
hail are possible with any of the stronger storms that develop.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed May 31 2017

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE START OF THE AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AND BE REPLACE BY AN OPEN WAVE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THERE LOOKS TO BE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
AID IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO DURING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS A DEEP TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS PATTERN LASTING OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
LASTING THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE TRI STATE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT OVER OUR REGION DURING
THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. THEN EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 445 PM MDT Wed May 31 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Will have a
chance of thunderstorms near/over the terminal from taf issuance
through about 03z as a weather disturbance moves across the area.
Winds generally from the southeast 10-15kts but could be variable
and quite gusty around any thunderstorms. From 04z-08z winds from
the southeast near 10kts. From 09z-17z winds from the south around
10kts. After 18z winds increase from the south 15-20kts with
higher gusts.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 07z
then again after 14z. From 08z-13z warm front and saturated
boundary layer moisture looks to create ifr cigs and possibly some
reductions in visibility with winds from the east under 10kts.
Otherwise could see thunderstorms near/over the terminal from
01z-03z with gusty winds and reduced visibilities. Winds from taf
issuance through about 02z from the east gusting 20-25kts.
Otherwise winds from the east to southeast under 10kts through the
rest of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1036 AM MDT Wed May 31 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-011645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1036 AM MDT Wed May 31 2017 /1136 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the Central
High Plains Region this afternoon and evening. The primary focus
will be north of a line from Benkelman Nebraska to Hill City Kansas.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with any of
the stronger storms that may develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

There will be a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
610 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

KSZ001-312330-
Cheyenne KS-
610 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 609 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported a strong thunderstorm
over St. Francis, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail has been reported with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis and Wheeler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3982 10193 3994 10184 3977 10156 3965 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 309DEG 10KT 3978 10179

Lundquist