Flash Flood and Hail in Arkansas, May 11 to 12, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
138 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

.AVIATION...11/18Z TAF CYCLE

Combo of VFR/MVFR cigs wl start off the fcst pd. Expect showers
and storms to incrs in coverage later this aftn and tngt as a
storm sys and assocd CDFNT work into AR. Conds wl gradually
deteriorate tngt, with mainly MVFR/IFR expected heading into Fri
morning. Precip wl bcm more scattered in coverage on Fri as the
assocd upr lvl support moves thru the region. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 315 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017)

Short Term...Today through Friday night

All short term models agree that unsettled conditions are in store
for the natural state as a storm system swings through the region.
With no major differences between the forecast models, will take a
general middle of the road approach.

The upper level ridge that that has been the dominant feature of
late has been knocked down and pushed off to the east. Southerly
flow has introduced a very moist air mass back to the region with
dew point temperatures back in the 60s again. Light showers continue
to develop and move through the state as weak impulses kick out of
the main storm system.  A stronger impulse produced thunderstorms
over NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas but the activity has weakened
considerably in the past hour or so.

The actual upper level low and associated trof, currently over the
TX/OK panhandles, will move slowly southeast with time and cross
over the forecast area through the period. In advance of the upper
system, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop during the
mid to late afternoon along the associated cold front. The line of
storms will sweep across the state through the evening hours.

The boundary is expected to reach the Mississippi River by Friday
morning. Some of the storms could be strong to possibly severe with
strong winds and large hail the primary concern.

The upper level support for this system will swing through Friday
keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The
precipitation chances will decrease from NW to SE during the day as
the system finally departs and high pressure begins to build back
in.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday...

Dry conditions will be continuing over the weekend into early next
week. SFC high pressure will be moving towards the state at the
start of the long term period in the wake of the departing storm
system and associated cold front. This will keep temps at or just
below normal to start off...but expect to see a gradual warming
trend through the weekend into early next week.

The SFC high will shift east by Mon...with SRLY SFC flow returning.
Dry conditions will persist however until Tue night and especially
for Wed as deep SRLY flow develops ahead of a deepening upper trough
to the west. Some upper level shortwaves will lift NE over AR in the
SW flow aloft by the end of the forecast...with chances for
SHRA/TSRA returning to the forecast.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A storm system in the southern plains will be moving towards the
state today with scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing as
the day progresses.

The associated cold front will enter the western part of the state
this afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
develop along the boundary as it crosses the state through the
evening hours. Some of the storms could be strong to possibly severe
with large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concern.

A general inch to an inch and a half of rain is expected with this
system. Some locally heavy rainfall may also be seen.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Some lingering chances for thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
for Friday as an upper level system moves over the state. While the
overall threat for severe weather will remain low...an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms may still be possible. The primary
threat with any of these storms on Friday will be large hail.
Otherwise...expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain
low through the middle of next week.
.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday afternoon to evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
222 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

ARZ003-111945-
Boone AR-
222 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEWTON AND WESTERN BOONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 222 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Red Bank, or 9 miles southwest of Harrison, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison...                       Bergman...
Myrtle...                         Capps...
Self...                           Red Bank...
Alpena...                         Batavia...
Bear Creek Springs...             Hopewell in Boone County...
Ridgeway...                       Gaither...
Burlington...

LAT...LON 3633 9296 3612 9317 3612 9330 3638 9330
      3647 9325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 210DEG 19KT 3618 9327

226