High Surf in Alaska, July 22 to 24, 2017

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
616 AM AKDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 988 mb low about 400 miles north of Wainwright will continue
east over the Beaufort Sea. The weather front associated with this
low lies from the low southeast to Prudhoe Bay and from there is
diffuse southwestward. The front will continue eastward over the
Alaskan arctic coast, passing Demarcation Point around noon today.
Weak high pressure will build in behind the front, but another
weather front is approaching from the west, the front associated
with the 996 mb low over mainland Russia north of Kamchatka. That
low will deepen as it moves northeast to be 990 mb between Wrangel
Island and the Russian mainland at 4 AM Sunday. Its weather front
is moving rapidly over the Bering Sea, and will lie from the Gulf
of Anadyr southward later this afternoon. The front will continue
northeast to lie from Point Hope southward through the Bering
Strait at midnight tonight, and on over mainland Alaska Sunday
through Monday.

The low near Wrangel Island early Sunday morning will track
eastward, passing just north of our eastern Arctic Coast Monday
night. Earlier model runs indicated fairly strong onshore winds
in zone 201 and in zone 202 from Point Barrow west along with
a modest storm surge. More recent runs are mostly less vigorous,
but there is still some potential.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Up to another half inch in the eastern Brooks Range (zone 206)
from the weather front presently moving into the area, and maybe
as much again on Monday from the next one. That on top of the
half inch to an inch that's already fallen. Expect substantial
rises on area rivers. Maybe an inch in zone 217 Sunday through
Monday as well. Most areas of northern Alaska can expect
significant rainfall Sunday and/or Monday, except zone 220.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ205.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ202.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

DJH JUL 17