Blizzard in Alaska, January 15, 2017

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
519 AM AKST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Models in decent agreement through about 60 hours. Upper level
trough firmly over Northern Alaska. After 60 hours the models
diverge slightly on the position of the upper level low. The
ECMWF pushes the upper low into the Bering Sea just south of Saint
Lawrence Island while the GFS keeps the low near Galena. The low
in the bottom of the trough originates well North of the Arctic
Coast and then Tracks southward.

Upper level ridge over Russia will break down the West Coast by
late Sunday as the Upper low slides southward. The gradient over
the Bering Strait will continue to weaken through Monday.

The winds will likely stay gusty in the eastern Arctic as the
surface low moves into the area. Once the low tracks north of the
Arctic Coast then it will reduce the gradient in the Eastern
Arctic.

The next strong North Pacific Low will move to near Valdez by
early Mon morning. This will set up another wave of snow to move
north from the occluded front ahead of the low. Virtually the
same geographic area that received snowfall on this past evolution
will be in the same area that receives snowfall on this
occasion.

Cold temperatures appears to be in store for Northern Alaska for
the next week or so in the deep cold trough.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ213-
AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

JAN 17