A low pressure system moving into Bristol Bay brought strong northeasterly flow and snowshowers to the Bering Sea, along with several fronts moving through SouthCentral Alaska. This caused blizzard conditions in the Pribilof Islands, blizzard conditions in the Kuskokwim Delta, and heavy snowfall along the Edgerton Highway.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A low pressure system moving into Bristol Bay brought strong northeasterly flow and snowshowers to the Bering Sea, along with several fronts moving through SouthCentral Alaska. This caused blizzard conditions in the Pribilof Islands, blizzard conditions in the Kuskokwim Delta, and heavy snowfall along the Edgerton Highway.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 6:17 AM AKST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 617 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2017 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... A complicated and rapidly-evolving weather situation is unfolding across southern Alaska this morning. The overall weather pattern has amplified, as expected, and now consists of a strong ridge of high pressure and associated warm air over the Panhandle, and a digging trough with arctic air entrenched over southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea. A large low pressure system is parked directly south of the Alaska Peninsula, with numerous embedded shortwaves riding a strong southerly jet stream through the Gulf and into Southcentral Alaska. Steady and heavy precip has been falling all along the Gulf Coast overnight. Snow changed to rain first in Kodiak, then in Seward and Cordova around midnight. However, as of this writing, snow continues near Whittier and Portage as well as in Valdez with enough cold air remaining in place. Snowfall totals overnight likely exceeded a foot in Valdez and Portage. Over Cook Inlet, very strong northerly winds at the low levels have been reinforcing the cold Arctic air that was in place yesterday and resisting the approaching warm air. This has led to dramatic temperature inversions around upper Cook Inlet, and brings the possibility of freezing rain to many areas by later this morning. See forecast section below for more information. Meanwhile, gusty and cold northerly flow continues at virtually all points west of the Alaska Range. Instability-driven snow showers continue to barrage the north side of the Aleutians as well as the Pribilof Islands. Over the Southwest Mainland, more widespread lift from the storm south of the Alaska Peninsula is bringing some fresh snow to many areas. Blowing snow is also a concern over the Bristol Bay area with temperatures remaining very cold. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... The models have finally come into good agreement on the track of the low that is currently bringing all the active weather to the area. The GFS had previously been trying to push more energy into the Susitna Valley and weaken the winds blowing south through Cook Inlet. The GFS has now joined the other models in keeping most of the energy around the main low center near the AKPEN, which should keep northerly winds in Cook Inlet throughout the day today. The precip forecast in the typical downslope areas remains problematic, with every model depicting a slightly different solution, and all depicting the possibility that the typically dry areas might see a period of precip at some point today. The morning forecast used the NAM for larger-scale updates, with more fine-tuning of the forecast relying mostly on conceptual models and experience. && .AVIATION... PANC...Conditions should remain VFR for the majority of the day as generally southeast flow and downslope conditions prevail. Wind shear will be a concern through the afternoon, before a strengthening pressure gradient causes the Turnagain Arm wind to bend more strongly down the Inlet by early this evening. There should be a period at some point during the mid to late morning hours where a band of snow moves through the area. This should cause ceilings to drop to low VFR before improving. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... Numerous forecast challenges are present for the next couple days with a very complex storm system moving into Southcentral. The setup is as follows: A slug of warm, moist air streaming northward from the tropics is colliding headlong into a cold air mass already in place across Southcentral. In a typical scenario, the center of the low (currently south of the Alaska Peninsula) would continue northward, drawing the warm air along with it and effectively scour out the cold air. However, in this scenario, the low is both nearly stationary, and associated with very cold air, represented by low 500 mb heights. As a result, the cold air is remaining very persistent, as northerly winds stream down the Cook Inlet. Thus for the Cook Inlet region, freezing rain becomes a concern. Also, the cold air associated with the low is forecast to gradually work eastward, shoving the warm air aloft out of the area by Tuesday night. Yet another complicating factor is the level of downsloping. Currently downsloping has kept all precipitation in the Chugach and Kenai Mountains with relatively little getting over the mountains. The usual setup with southeast flow also shows strong upsloping in the western Susitna Valley as well. Freezing rain will be possible where warm air moves above the cold air near the ground, and also where precipitation continues outside of strong downsloping areas. As discrete shortwaves of upper-level energy move across the area in the broad southerly upper-level flow, it appears likely that at times the winds may shift with the passage of these waves to temporarily end the downsloping and allow some light precipitation to get into Anchorage and the northern Kenai Peninsula regions. In particular, one of those shortwaves looks to come in this morning, allowing for some potential for freezing rain to develop. Fortunately it looks to be light, but it may still be enough to cause treacherous conditions on area roadways and sidewalks, which regardless of the air temperature, remain well below freezing. Additionally, with above freezing temperatures and some modest snow melt, a thin layer of liquid water on top of packed down ice on many area roadways will also make those surfaces very slippery. Yet another forecast challenge is evaluating the likelihood of a precipitation type changeover at all in Valdez/Thompson Pass. The forecast models are all over the spectrum with this. If you follow the GFS, Valdez changes over to rain later this morning and snow totals are held to essentially what has already fallen. The NAM however keeps Valdez all snow for the next 3 days, which when taking an atmospheric river's worth of moisture and dropping all if it in the form of snow would result in totals requiring a yardstick to measure from this system alone. Fortunately for snow lovers, the GFS solution is showing temperatures getting up well into the 40s Monday night into Tuesday morning, which is completely unrealistic given the transient nature of the warm air. However, the NAM solution of keeping the precipitation type all snow for the next 3 days and beyond with temperatures never reaching freezing also appears unlikely, as the warm air that does get there should have some effect of warming the temperatures and changing over the precipitation type, at least for a time. So for now the best course of action is a middle ground, with the expectation of some changeover to rain sometime Monday, but not enough to inhibit Valdez and Thompson Pass picking up at least a foot of new snow. Thus the largest degree of uncertainty is determining when exactly the precipitation changes over. The longer it takes, the more the snow piles up. Then as if all that wasn't enough, on Tuesday night and especially Wednesday when the cold air returns from the southwest at all levels, that flow will put the previously downsloped areas of Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley on the upslope side of things. As the wave causing the precipitation passes through, snow should break out across much of Southcentral, likely favoring the higher elevations of Hillside, Eagle River, and the Matanuska Valley. Several inches of snow will be possible. Stay tuned. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... A cold upper level low centered near Nunivak Island early this morning drops south, crossing the western tip of the Alaska Peninsula this evening as a surface low south of Kodiak Island rotates north crossing the Alaska Peninsula on its way into Bristol Bay. A frontal band associated the surface low is currently rotating through Southwest Alaska. The low will stall around Dillingham where it will remain through this evening continuing to bring snow, breezy northerly winds and some areas of blowing snow. The surface low will follow the path of the upper level low rotating west out of Bristol Bay, back across the western tip of the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday, only to swing back to the east and continue this spiraling path through Wednesday. The net result for Southwest Alaska will be continued northerly flow with several more frontal bands rotating through and bringing snow. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... As the cold upper level low and the surface low south of Kodiak Island spiral around each other, their mean center will become established over the Alaska Peninsula as they rotate around each other through midweek. A front associated with this system will push into the Pribilof Islands this evening bringing snow, strong north winds and blizzard conditions through Tuesday. With the northerly flow continuing south into the eastern Aleutians and western Alaska Peninsula expecting to see some blowing snow in those locations as well. Cold northerly flow and snow showers will continue over the western Bering through midweek. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... By Tuesday evening there will be a large closed upper low centered over the Eastern Aleutians with a broad southerly flow across Southcentral. Colder air wrapping around the low will result in a mix of rain and snow chances from the coast inland. Across southwest Alaska, enough cold air will be in place for all snow. Over the Bering, continued cyclonic flow aloft with cold air streaming over warmer waters will support widespread snow showers. By Wednesday and Wednesday night a series of weak disturbances along a baroclinic zone in the Gulf of Alaska will work northward toward the coast. Much uncertainty remains with the track of these shortwave troughs, so for now will hold with inland snow chances heading through the weekend as another arctic trough moves into Southwest Alaska Friday then stalls. Colder air will then remain in place across southern Alaska through next weekend. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 195 Winter Weather Advisory 131 145 161 MARINE...Storms 119 125 Gales 130 155 173 174 179 180 181 185 351 352 412 413 414 Heavy Freezing Spray 139 165 179 185 412 414 && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR LONG TERM...JA
2 blizzard, 1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
A traveler along the Edgerton Highway reported 21 inches of snowfall. This was confirmed by the Department of Transportation.
Saint Paul reported winds to 41 knots and visibilities below 1/4 mile between 5:53 p.m. and 7:53 p.m.
Observations at Toksook Bay reported winds gusting as high as 57 mph with reduced visibility for 15 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 683087, 683086, 683091.