Blizzard in Alaska, April 5 to 6, 2017

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
233 AM AKDT Wed Apr 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Big picture agreement looks good through around 84 hours
before diverging. 05/00Z runs initialized well against 05/06Z
surface analysis. Operational model output temperatures continue
to be way too cold so will maintain continuity by using previous
day and current forecast database as a starting point, then make
minor adjustments. Not expecting much precipitation today as
another wave moves north and it looks like the SREF continues to
perform best in the short term so will stick with it again today
and out to around 48 hours.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 534 dam high remains 200 nm northeast of
Barrow with ridging over the northeast corner of the state, and
lows south of the Gulf of Alaska will merge this morning into a
512 dam center 300 nm southeast of Kodiak City. A fairly strong
shortwave lies from Yakutat east and will move to lie from Seward
to Fairbanks late tonight as it rotates around the low, and over
the southwest coast Thursday morning. A 524 dam low will develop
over Franklin Bay NWT this morning and move southwest over Fort
McPherson NWT at 520 dam by Thursday morning, then over the AlCan
border east of Chalkyitsik late Thursday, and over Bettles by
Friday afternoon at 519 dam as it continues to move west. At 850
hpa...Temperatures cooling a few degrees today through Friday,
then warming a bit on the weekend.

Surface...Broad area of cyclonic flow over the state as a 968 mb
low moves just south of the Gulf of Alaska today and over southern
Kodiak Island by Friday morning at 981 mb. Trough persists over
the west coast and leeside troughing has developed over the arctic
plain and coast. Expect weak leeside troughing to develop north
of the Alaska range tonight. A 1030 mb high north of Banks Island
will move slowly move south to Banks Island by Saturday morning. A
strong pressure gradient will persist over the eastern arctic
coast into the weekend. A 1012 mb high will develop just west of
Wrangel Island today and build to 1022 mb by friday morning. A
weather front will move to the southeast interior this evening
with a 991 mb low developing over the upper Tanana Valley and
persisting into Friday before dissipating.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...The eastern arctic coast will
continue to be impacted by low visibility in fog and blowing snow
with strong winds persisting through the weekend. Will maintain
the current Winter Weather Advisories for zones 203 and 204.
Visibility is mainly being impacted by fog with some snow being
lofted by the winds. Very little stratus can be seen on the NPP-
VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics RGB imagery from 04/2345Z. West of
Nuiqsut conditions much better conditions will prevail with
improved visibility. Strongest winds east of Point Barrow with
east winds 20 to 35 mph gusting to around 50 mph around Kaktovik.
West of Point Barrow winds northeast to east at 10 to 20 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy for most areas again
today with mainly snow showers from the Bering Strait south, but
there may be some rain mixed in during the daytime hours.
Temperatures a bit warmer today then cooling a bit the remainder
of the week. Winds north to northeast over the coastal areas at
with the strongest winds on the outer Capes and St Lawrence Island
at 15 to 25 mph. Winds 10 to 20 mph for the remainder of the
coastal areas, and 5 to 15 mph for the inland areas with the
exception of some higher elevation areas where winds will continue
to gust to around 40 mph through the evening, so will keep the
Wind Advisory out for zone 216 northeast of Galena. Temperatures
a bit warmer today, then slightly cooler the remainder of the
week.

Central and Eastern Interior...Bands of clouds moving through
today then cloudy for most areas this evening as the front stalls
over the southeast interior. Some periods of snow in the eastern
Alaska Range and upper Tanana Valley this evening and overnight
with accumulations generally around an inch. A few flurries may
make it into the Central Interior and Upper Yukon Valley, but no
significant accumulations are expected. Leeside troughing
develops tonight so gap flow winds increasing in the passes with
gusts to 45 mph in passes west of the Tok Cutoff and east of the
Parks Highway. Temperatures cooling a bit the next couple days.
Winds a bit stronger than normal in the interior today will be
diminishing tonight. Gusty winds over some of the higher elevation
areas north of Fairbanks will remain strong today and diminish
this evening so will keep Wind Advisory in place for zone 219.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ216-AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

&&

SDB APR 17