On the evening of May 6th a line of thunderstorms, ahead of an approaching cold front, moved into north central Wisconsin. One of the storms produced a measured wind gust to 68 mph as it moved over the Manitowish Waters Airport.
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The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
On the evening of May 6th a line of thunderstorms, ahead of an approaching cold front, moved into north central Wisconsin. One of the storms produced a measured wind gust to 68 mph as it moved over the Manitowish Waters Airport.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 6, 1:43 PM CST, 3 hours 52 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 243 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 MAIN FORECAST FOCUS TO BE ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE 19Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NE MN...AND CONTINUING INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SD. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SPOTTY SO FAR...DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN NE MN SOARING TO 90 DEGREES. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SE INTO NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL WI AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY (STEEP LAPSE RATES/8H LI'S AROUND -2)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CAP FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A SCATTERED LINE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY OVERALL IS GENERALLY WEAK...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND BRIEFLY GUST...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WI WHERE THE WINDS WOULD FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY OR ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH/DOOR COUNTY...50-55 DEGREE RANGE SOUTH. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SOME BUILD-UP OF MID CLOUDS IS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG MAY SUN AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP...JUST MORE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH READINGS AROUND 60 DEGREES LAKESIDE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH-CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONTINENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THIS PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE INTERACTION OF LOWS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS MAKE PRECISE TIMING DIFFICULT. THE RESULT IS A SMATTERING OF POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO MENTION SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHILE MENTIONS OF THUNDER HAVE LARGELY BEEN REMOVED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT... WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LARGELY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX QUICKLY SHOOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF AND THE NCAR WRF ENSEMBLE WHICH HAVE A FEW WETTER MEMBERS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT MOISTURE WILL LARGELY BE LACKING AND THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY. ALSO SPURRED BY A RELATIVE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO AGAIN BE LOW...SIMILAR TO TODAY AND THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW RH SHOULD HELP MAKE FINE FUELS RECEPTIVE TO FIRE IGNITION AND GROWTH...AND A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR IGNITIONS SHOULD EXIST WITH OPENING WEEKEND FOR THE FISHING SEASON. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER AND WINDS CALMER THAN TODAY...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. NEXT WEEK... A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ANY POTENTIAL THUNDER LOOKS TO COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS STILL FAIRLY LIMITED...SO NOT REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT ALL. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR CAN OVERCOME THE CURRENT DRYNESS. THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP MIDWEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DEPARTS THE REGION...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFICULTY IN PARSING THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE MAKE IT HARD TO DELINEATE WHERE ANY DRY PERIODS MAY OCCUR RIGHT NOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BY LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER A TEMPORARY LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RHI TAF SITE BY MID-EVENING...THE AUW/CWA TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE GRB AND MTW TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST OVER 20 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LLWS TO THE TAF'S THIS EVENING AS RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MET WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND OVER 30 KNOTS ABOVE 1K FEET. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME HI-BASED CU OR LOW-END ALTOCU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM.....KALLAS LONG TERM......LUCHS AVIATION.......AK
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-071945- VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN- LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO- WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO- CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY- SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY- 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DESPITE COOLER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...IT IS TOO EARLY TO RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL ENTIRELY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. LMZ521-522-541>543-071945- THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN- 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. KALLAS/LUCHS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 200 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>038-073-074-062200- VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN- LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD- PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY- SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY- 200 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON... ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES HAS ALSO DETERMINED FIRE DANGER TO BE VERY HIGH...AND THE AGENCY HAS REPORTED MULTIPLE FIRES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...WILDLAND FIRES CAN START EASILY AND SPREAD QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONSIDER ANOTHER DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING. DO NOT PARK ANY MOTORIZED VEHICLE OVER GRASSES OR OTHER VEGETATIVE MATERIAL. ENSURE CHAINS USED IN TOWING OR TRANSPORTING ITEMS ARE SECURE AND WILL NOT SCRAPE AGAINST THE ROAD. USE GREAT CAUTION WHEN USING ANY EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS. BE SURE TO CHECK WITH THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES OR LOCAL OFFICIALS BEFORE ATTEMPTING ANY BURNING...AS BURNING RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLACE IN MANY COUNTIES AND COMMUNITIES. WIZ022-039-040-045-048>050-062200- DOOR-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC- 200 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING IN THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES HAS ALSO DETERMINED FIRE DANGER TO BE HIGH AND THE AGENCY HAS RESPONDED TO AT LEAST ONE WILDFIRE. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...WILDLAND FIRES CAN START EASILY AND SPREAD QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CHECK WITH THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR BURNING RESTRICTIONS...AS RESTRICTIONS ON OUTDOOR BURNING MAY BE IN PLACE. IF YOUR PLANNED BURN IS ALLOWED...USE GREAT CAUTION AND ENSURE YOUR FIRE IS COMPLETELY EXTINGUISHED AND COLD BEFORE LEAVING. DO NOT PARK MOTORIZED VEHICLES OVER GRASSES OR OTHER VEGETATIVE MATERIAL. ENSURE CHAINS USED IN TOWING OR TRANSPORTING ITEMS ARE SECURE AND WILL NOT SCRAPE AGAINST THE ROAD. USE CAUTION WHEN USING ANY EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS. LUCHS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 445 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>038-073-074-070100- VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN- LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD- PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY- SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY- 445 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 ...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY EVENING... ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH TO PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES HAS DETERMINED FIRE DANGER TO BE VERY HIGH. THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...WILDLAND FIRES CAN START EASILY AND SPREAD QUICKLY. BURNING BANS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION...SO RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT ANY BURNING. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WITH SMOKING MATERIALS...AND ENSURE THAT CAMPFIRES ARE COMPLETELY EXTINGUISHED. DO NOT PARK ANY MOTORIZED VEHICLE OVER GRASSES OR OTHER VEGETATIVE MATERIAL. ENSURE CHAINS USED IN TOWING OR TRANSPORTING ITEMS ARE SECURE AND WILL NOT SCRAPE AGAINST THE ROAD. USE GREAT CAUTION WHEN USING ANY OUTDOOR EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIZ022-039-040-045-048>050-070100- DOOR-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC- 445 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING... ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING IN THE AREA...ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES HAS DETERMINED FIRE DANGER TO BE HIGH. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...WILDLAND FIRES CAN START EASILY AND SPREAD QUICKLY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WITH SMOKING MATERIALS...AND ENSURE THAT CAMPFIRES ARE COMPLETELY EXTINGUISHED. DO NOT PARK ANY MOTORIZED VEHICLE OVER GRASSES OR OTHER VEGETATIVE MATERIAL. ENSURE CHAINS USED IN TOWING OR TRANSPORTING ITEMS ARE SECURE AND WILL NOT SCRAPE AGAINST THE ROAD. USE GREAT CAUTION WHEN USING ANY EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CHECK WITH THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES OR LOCAL OFFICIALS BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BURN YARD WASTE...AS RESTRICTIONS ON OUTDOOR BURNING MAY BE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT... BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KIECKBUSCH
The Marquette radar (KMQT), 185 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:33 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed several trees as the storm passed through Manitowish Waters.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 627156.