Funnel Clouds in Texas, September 1, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
459 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Skimmed precip chances back to 20-40% for the remainder of this
afternoon through tonight to sync with the recent drying of the
column and lower coverage of storms. Water vapor does show an
impulse dropping SSE from the eastern OK Panhandle that may graze
our NE zones after midnight complete with an enhancement of
storms, but otherwise the stabilizing theme appears to be well
underway.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Coverage of storms is much less than this time yesterday as daytime
heating is having a hard time overcoming moisture values through the
depth of the atmosphere that are continuing to decrease.  Water
Vapor satellite loop shows dry air aloft continuing to spread over
the region.  Another feature that is helping to keep widespread
precipitation from developing is the loss of upper-level support as
the entrance region of the weak jet has shifted well northeast of
the area.  These two events combined will make it hard for any
remaining surface-based instability to generate thunderstorms, but
any storms that do develop will still be capable of producing brief,
heavy downpours.  Models do show another weak jet streak moving
across the Texas Panhandle tonight which may generate some weak lift
but it looks like our rain chances will gradually be decreasing
through tomorrow.  Ample surface moisture from recent rainfall will
keep boundary layer moist which will result in low cloud and fog
development overnight so expect a cloudy start to the day Friday.
This will also keep minimum temperatures from dropping quite as much
as in previous days.

Friday should see temperatures a bit warmer as we should clear out
earlier in the day as dry air continues to work into the region. Low
level moisture and evaporation of surface water will once again
result in chances for thunderstorms but the heavy rainfall threat
should have ended and coverage will be more isolated than previous
days. Best chances will be across the western South Plains where
weak easterly surface flow may provide enough orographic lift to
help initiate storms in the afternoon.

 Jordan

LONG TERM...
No significant changes are expected in the medium range as the upper
level ridge currently overhead will be east of the region by
Saturday. While low level as well as some mid level moisture will be
in place, the main source of lift for recent convection will move
with the ridge. Southwesterly flow will set up overhead and will
help to dry the upper levels which will further reduce the chances
for precip. While some surface based showers and thunderstorms will
be possible Sunday and Monday, lack of confidence in initialization
does not warrant a mention of pops due to limited available lift.

Winds will be on the low side of breezy (around 15 knots) Saturday
into Monday thanks to a lee trof. Models, in particular the GFS,
have backed off on bringing a weak surface low across the OK
Panhandle on Monday which in turn will keep winds from getting above
20 knots sustained. This will do little to lower dew points as the
recent heavy rains in addition to a southerly wind direction will
keep dew points in the low to upper 60s through next week. More rain
may be possible by mid week as an upper level trof across the West
Coast pushes eastward bringing more monsoonal moisture back into the
region.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
458 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016

TXZ021>044-022200-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
458 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.