Thunderstorms with very heavy rain caused flash flooding in portions of Mason and Taylor Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with very heavy rain caused flash flooding in portions of Mason and Taylor Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 11:00 AM CST, 2 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across a large part of West Central Texas this afternoon. The best chance of a thunderstorms affecting the terminal is at KBBD and KJCT. Brief heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms. At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings are forecast to return to all sites except KABI Wednesday morning. Winds will generally be from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1111 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ UPDATE... Updated to issue a Flash Flood Watch for all of the area. DISCUSSION... Upper level low continues to slowly track to the east across Arizona. An outflow boundary is sagging southward into the extreme northern Big Country. Convection continues to blossom across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland. All this to say that periods of showers and storms will continue across most of West Central Texas through Thursday. With the very wet spring, and with the fairly widespread 2-4 inch rainfall totals over the last week, much of the rainfall from the storms will quickly turning into runoff. And given the precipitable water values, these storms tend to be efficient rain producers to start with. Not all locations will see the storms, but the ones that do will produce heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. With that in mind, issued a Flash Flood Watch for the entire area through 12Z Thursday. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Expect MVFR ceilings along the I-10 corridor and Heartland for a few hours this morning, then VFR conditions will prevail after 18Z. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening across West Central Texas, and keeping VCTS at the terminals from 18Z to 06Z. Will not go any higher than VCTS due to low confidence on coverage and timing of storms. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain promising. Models are in good agreement. The upper low will slowly drift south of the Arizona border by this afternoon. The persistent southwest flow aloft will continue to produce minor disturbance, which will move over West Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Central has all of our area in a Marginal Risk through 12Z tomorrow morning. So, continuing chance PoPs for today and likely for tonight looks reasonable. The main threats for today and tonight are large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. With precipitable water values in the 1.5 range likely for tonight, the potential for heavy rainfall is present; however, exactly where that may develop is unknown at this time. Thus, will defer to the day shift for a possible Flash Flood Watch. LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged. Good rain chances continue through late week. Another cold front arrives on Wednesday, as the upper low moves over the El Paso area. By Thursday afternoon and evening, this low moves from west to east across West Central Texas. The ECMWF is more aggressive and moves the low faster than the GFS; plus, the ECMWF generates more QPF. Will continue will higher PoPs favoring the ECMWF, with the best rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday. By Friday afternoon, the upper trough axis moves east of our counties, and rain chances diminish, but continue through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 64 80 63 77 / 70 70 60 60 San Angelo 65 80 62 77 / 60 60 60 50 Junction 66 79 63 78 / 60 70 70 70 && .SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble- Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher- Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && Daniels
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 456 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-011000- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- 456 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. ALSO...THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1017 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 TXZ170-311600- MASON TX- 1017 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MASON COUNTY UNTIL 1100 AM CDT... AT 1016 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CASTELL...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MASON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN MASON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE INTERSECTION OF US-87 AND RANCH ROAD 783. LAT...LON 3074 9930 3092 9897 3058 9896 3052 9920 TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 249DEG 36KT 3073 9906
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1054 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
TXZ073-154-168-311645-
MCCULLOCH TX-CONCHO TX-MENARD TX-
1054 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MENARD...SOUTHEASTERN
CONCHO AND WEST CENTRAL MCCULLOCH COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...
AT 1053 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST
OF FORT MCKAVETT...OR 12 MILES WEST OF MENARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN MENARD...
SOUTHEASTERN CONCHO AND WEST CENTRAL MCCULLOCH COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: LIVE OAK...US-83 NEAR THE MENARD-CONCHO
COUNTY LINE AND CAMP SOL MAYER.
LAT...LON 3074 10012 3109 10012 3120 9983 3130 9962
3108 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1553Z 230DEG 14KT 3093 10000SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1058 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
TXZ155-170-311700-
SAN SABA TX-MASON TX-
1058 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MASON AND SOUTHERN
SAN SABA COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...
AT 1058 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CASTELL...OR
12 MILES EAST OF MASON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PONTOTOC AROUND 1130 AM CDT.
CHEROKEE AROUND 1200 PM CDT.
LAT...LON 3092 9844 3092 9896 3069 9896 3065 9906
3076 9920 3079 9928 3094 9921 3094 9909
3100 9909 3111 9892 3099 9844 3096 9845
3094 9841 3093 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 230DEG 14KT 3076 9902The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 146 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:11 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A low water crossing was flooded causing water to flow over Highway 29.
Flooding was reported along parts of FM 89 in Taylor County. The water level was one foot over the road in the vicinity of Lake Abilene State Park. Abilene State Park was evacuated. Water was over a part of U.S. Highway 83 and 84 south of Abilene in Central Taylor County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 638132, 638134.