Wildfire in Texas, August 4, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1256 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z Issuance...VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the
period. A cold front is racing south and is currently in southeast
Colorado. Showers and thunderstorms are already forming along and
ahead of the front. The front is expected to reach KGUY and KDHT
around 20Z. Showers have already begun near KDHT and should begin
soon near KGUY. Southwesterly winds will swing to the north with the
frontal passage. KAMA seems less likely to see showers so have left
them out, but do expect winds to become northerly by 00Z. If the
front stalls out, timing of the winds at KAMA may be later.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016/

AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs, the overall weather pattern will remain the same
as the past few days. Expect another round of late afternoon and
nighttime showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest potential over
northwest parts of the area. Have included PROB30 groups for -TSRA at
all terminal sites for late this afternoon into this evening. In
addition, a weak cold front will enter the Oklahoma Panhandle and
northwest Texas Panhandle late this evening, with winds becoming
north at KGUY and KDHT.

Andrade

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Not much has changed overall with the forecast package. Water vapor
shows a subtle upper level low spinning over the Four Corners region
- temporarily shifting the flow more northwesterly across the
Panhandles. This feature is expected to get absorbed in the mean flow
through the morning hours, and a return to southwesterly flow and
subtropical moisture plume is expected for the afternoon hours. Have
went with similar high temperatures to what we saw yesterday, as mid
and high level clouds are expected to return to most of the area.
This will also help to limit instability and diurnal convection some
again too, though an approaching weak surface front should help to
increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms later today,
especially across the Oklahoma and northern half of the Texas
Panhandles. Shear values remain fairly weak until late tonight when
they increase slightly to around 30kts in the north, so a few strong
to marginally severe storms are possible. The primary concern will
still likely be more focused on localized flooding as storms will be
slow moving and have plenty of available moisture (PWAT values still
near 1.3 to 1.5 inches). However, the scattered and convective nature
doesn't suggest widespread flooding concerns.

The surface boundary lingers across or near the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandle border through Friday and possibly into Saturday morning.
Have kept chances for precipitation in this area through that period,
which will likely get refined once the front stalls. Broad upper
level ridging remains across the Southern U.S. through the weekend
which should keep southwesterly flow and available moisture around
for afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the portions of the
Panhandles. Monday and Tuesday the upper level ridge will start to
amplify some, but models aren't clear on whether that will be over or
east of the area. This could mean more of the same if we stay in
southwesterly flow, or possibly a bit of a drier pattern mid-week if
the axis is closer to the Panhandles. For now have went with broad
slight chance, diurnal PoPs to account for this uncertainty.

Elsenheimer

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

16/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
325 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-042030-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
325 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.