Hail in Texas, April 20 to 21, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
228 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Over the past 24 hours, the upper pattern has become more
progressive with the upper low finally making its way into the
northern plains. Broad cyclonic flow continues to affect the
region however, and given ample moisture, a few showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and this evening, mainly
across far eastern portions of the forecast area. The best chance
for convection through this evening will be across the Lower
Trans Pecos/Stockton Plateau, where a couple of storms have
already developed as of 2PM CDT along a lingering outflow boundary
from last night's convection. Storms this afternoon and evening
are not expected to be severe, though stronger storms could
produce gusty wind and hail.

The main focus is late tonight and early Thursday morning, as a
shortwave is progged to round the back of the departing low,
pushing a cold front through the Texas Panhandle overnight.
Thunderstorms are expected to initiate this afternoon across the
northern Panhandle, gradually growing upscale and developing into
an MCS along the advancing boundary. High-resolution guidance
indicates a prevailing south-southeast motion of the complex as
it becomes outflow dominated, with storms moving into the Western
Low Rolling Plains by around 09Z/4AM CDT. While the core of the
MCS is expected to move into the Big Country, additional
thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters are possible across the
northern Permian Basin along the front/outflow boundary, with a
continued southward movement through the early morning hours. The
greatest chance for strong to severe storms late tonight and early
Thursday looks to be across the Western Low Rolling Plains, where
bulk shear will be around 35-40KT coincident with CAPE values
around 1500J/kg. The primary threats will likely evolve to be
damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall, though hail cannot be
ruled out. Given the amount of moisture tonight as well as
expected cloud cover, lows will be mild, generally in the 50s,
with some 60s possible south and east.

Through the day on Thursday, the threat of thunderstorms will
gradually move south with the front/outflow boundary, with
strongest storms expected to be east of the forecast area. As
cooler air filters in behind the front, temperatures Thursday are
expected to be in the 70s to lower 80s, with a few readings in
the lower 90s in the Rio Grande Valley. Ridging builds over the
region on Friday allowing temperatures to moderate, with just a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly confined to the
higher terrain and the Big Bend Area.

On Saturday, an upper low is progged to move across northern
Mexico, which will yield an increased chance of thunderstorms,
mainly along and south of the Pecos River Saturday afternoon and
evening. On Sunday morning, precipitation will have moved east of
the area, with breezy westerly winds developing and temperatures
climbing above normal Sunday afternoon. Precipitation chances
remain slim through the remainder of the extended, with above
normal temperatures expected to continue well into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  75  54  77 /  30  30  10   0
Carlsbad                       54  80  53  82 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         63  85  63  83 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  60  80  57  79 /  10  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 51  74  52  76 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          51  76  49  78 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          42  78  47  77 /  10  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           60  78  54  79 /  20  20  10   0
Odessa                         59  78  55  80 /  20  20  10   0
Wink                           56  82  57  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

67/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
212 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
212 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016 /112 PM MDT WED APR 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION, AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN,
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.  THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH,
AND PERHAPS PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LINGERING STORMS COULD BE ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
THURSDAY MORNING.  GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

TXZ075-081-082-202045-
TERRELL TX-BIG BEND AREA TX-PECOS TX-
247 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BREWSTER...SOUTH
CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTHWESTERN TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF LONGFELLOW...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANDERSON...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANDERSON AND LONGFELLOW.

LAT...LON 3017 10289 3043 10284 3050 10230 3002 10235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 274DEG 16KT 3029 10274

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