In advance of a slow-moving upper low in the Four Corners, a dryline over the eastern South Plains focused thunderstorm development by early afternoon. As these storms moved northeast and off the Caprock, they intensified with some becoming supercells.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
In advance of a slow-moving upper low in the Four Corners, a dryline over the eastern South Plains focused thunderstorm development by early afternoon. As these storms moved northeast and off the Caprock, they intensified with some becoming supercells. These supercells produced copious amounts of severe hail and heavy rainfall that resulted in some flooding. One supercell produced three EF-0 tornadoes from northwest King County into eastern Dickens County. All tornadoes remained over open land and were documented by storm chasers.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 16, 11:34 AM CST, 3 hours 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .AVIATION... -SHRA/-TSRA HAVE IGNITED ON THE DRYLINE WELL WEST OF KCDS AND NORTH OF KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE DRYLINE SETTLES TO NEAR THE EDGE OF CAPROCK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR -TSRA DEVELOPMENT. KEEPING IN MIND STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE DISCRETE...THE ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE JUST EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW...WITH KCDS BEING MORE FAVORED. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO INSERT A PRECIP MENTION AT KCDS AT THIS TIME...AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS PROGRESS. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AND HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO INSERT A -TSRA PREVAILING AT KCDS DURING THE SAID PERIOD...WITH A PROB30 BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY WILL COMMENCE TO SHIFT EAST. OTHERWISE...THE MVFR CIGS ARE SCATTERING OUT AT KLBB AND KPVW...BUT STILL HANGING TOUGH AT KCDS. KCDS WILL LIKELY NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BUT MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT KLBB AND KPVW THIS AFTERNOON /20-22 KTS/ AND REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT KCDS /AOA 20 KTS/. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ SHORT TERM... ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST FOCUSED ON SEVERE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF BOTH IMPACTS BEING OFF THE CAPROCK. WEST OF THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE LOCATION...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA MANAGED TO AVOID CONVECTION THE PAST 24 HOURS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO INTO COLORADO TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND A 80-100 KNOT ULJ SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP DRIVE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO. IT APPEARS THE DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK BY PEAK HEATING...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FIRES ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. 50+ KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SBCAPES OF 1500-2000+ J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND NEAR BOUNDARY PARALLEL DEEP LAYER FLOW. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT...THOUGH LOW LCLS AND 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES AOA 200 M2/S2 ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONE COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE. THE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL THEN INCREASE LATER INTO THE EVENING AS A LARGE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. A STRONG FLUX OF MOISTURE /EMANATING OUT OF AIR WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.2 INCHES/ CONVERGING INTO THIS ZONE OF CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TRAINING STORMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD WITH THE LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED CONVERGENCE...LIFT AND THUS HEAVIEST QPF...WITH OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW MOST FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN. GIVEN THIS TREND...WE HAVE TRIMMED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE UPDATED FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO POST LINE AND BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. WEST OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS COULD EVEN FLIRT WITH LOW-END ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SPOTS AT TIMES. THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL HEIGHTEN THE FIRE DANGER...THOUGH THE ONGOING GREEN UP MAY MITIGATE THIS SOMEWHAT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WHILE LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST /WHERE A FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE AND DRIER AIR WILL RESIDE/ TO MID AND UPPER 50S EAST WHERE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH. LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME INBOUND LIFT FROM A VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW /WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACTUALLY RETROGRADES TO THE WEST/. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER IN THIS REGIME...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS POSSIBILITY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL HELP THAT AREA MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LOW...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. IT APPEARS LIKE ANOTHER LOBE OR WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE AIRMASS A BIT TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY CREEP BACK TO THE NORTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WE/LL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUR NORTHWEST WHERE WE EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO BE MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON NEW MEXICO. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO GINGERLY MOVE TO THE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. AS LONG AS IT IS PRESENT...A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING SPOTTY QPF DURING THIS PERIOD...PERHAPS FAVORING WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND THE PERSISTENT LOW-LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE ARGUE FOR MAINTAINING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. FINALLY BY FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT UPPER- LOW MOVING ONSHORE OUT WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING FALLING HEIGHTS FROM THE SYSTEM OUT WEST THAT COULD INITIATE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS IT APPEARS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN BACK INTO THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER... DRY AIR /RH VALUES FALLING TO AND BELOW 15 PERCENT/ AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH AT 20 FT/ WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SHOULD BE OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY THE ONGOING GREEN UP AND MAY ALSO BE MITIGATED BY THE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE. GIVEN THIS...WE WILL PLAY THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ026-031-032-037-038-042>044. && 29
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1133 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 TXZ021>044-171645- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 1133 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SILVERTON...TO RALLS...TO TAHOKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THOUGH A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO A SLOW MOVING LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAPROCK BEHIND THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON CREATING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL END BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0342 PM WALL CLOUD 4 NW FLOYDADA 34.02N 101.39W
04/16/2016 FLOYD TX STORM CHASER
VERY SLOW BUT PERSISTENT ROTATION
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB1600054
JGDThe Lubbock radar (KLBB), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:49 UTC.
6 hail, 3 tornado, 2 flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Measured by a Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet. This same wind gust collapsed an old outbuilding on the northwest side of Spur.
Water of one to two feet was covering a segment of Texas State Highway 207.
Storm chasers documented a brief EF-0 tornado west of US Highway 208 about 8.5 miles southwest of Girard. No damage survey was conducted as the tornado remained over undeveloped land.
A storm chaser documented a large cone tornado. No damage survey was conducted as the tornado remained over undeveloped land.
No damage was reported.
The third and final tornado from a cyclic tornadic supercell occurred for about one minute over open land in northeast Dickens County. No damage survey was conducted as the tornado remained over undeveloped land.
No damage was reported.
A second storm produced quarter size hail at the same location as the prior event. No damage was reported, but the hail was said to have completely covered the ground.
A swath of severe hail ranging from the size of quarters to hen eggs fell along a stretch of US Highway 83 north of Guthrie. Damage was not known.
The fire department in Paducah reported golf ball size hail south of Paducah along US Highway 83. About 15 minutes later, a storm chaser reported one inch hail up to four inches deep along the highway. No damage was reported.
Hail up to the size of golf balls damaged a Texas Tech University mesonet site ten miles southwest of Paducah.
At least six inches of water was over the road at the intersection of US Highways 70 and 83 in Paducah.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Texas, 2016Warnings in Texas, April 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 619547, 619558, 619551, 620328, 619552, 620329, 619553, 619554, 619555, 620009, 620010, 620011.