Drought in South Carolina, September 1 to 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1048 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the north tonight and Thursday
reaching the Interstate 85 corridor Thursday evening. Expect
tropical system Hermine to cross north Florida then merge with the
front over the eastern Carolinas early Friday as it moves northeast
along the front. A Canadian air mass will build over the region in
the wake of the tropical cyclone.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1035 PM, the convection allowing models show a gradual
dissipation in slowly moving western mountain and northern tier
convection. Will keep an isolated PoP going along the spine of the
mountains for weak upslope induced showers overnight. Otherwise, the
main early morning concern will be fog and low stratus developing in
the mountain valleys as mid/upper debris clouds thin a bit.

Otherwise, the mid-level weakness that has been present over the
region over the last day or two should get kicked to the northeast
tonight by an upper trough digging down from the upper Midwest/Great
Lakes. Lows will remain a bit above normal as a frontal boundary
slowly approaches from the NW. On Thursday, the question is how far
the front will get and how fast Hermine will approach from the
south. Anticipate the mtns having enough low level convergence to
allow for decent coverage, so confidence is good with the 50/60
chances there. However, outside the mtns there should be some delay
in developing precip until later in the afternoon. Confidence lags
that we will see much until very late in the day, but will still
ramp up to a good chance by the end of the period. Temps will be
about a category above normal again. Deeper layer tropical moisture
should remain shunted to the south given the official Hermine track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...The suite of 12z guidance has made a
significant shift westward with the track of Tropical Depression
Nine (which has just been upgraded to Tropical Storm Hermine), and
may strengthen to a hurricane before landfall). The NAM and GFS are
in good agreement on the storm making landfall just west of
Apalachicola, FL, early Friday morning. From there, the center of
the storm lifts NE across GA and the SC Midlands thru Friday night.
The NAM is a little stronger, with a 988 mb low at landfall, which
would likely be a hurricane at that intensity. So this forecast will
follow that trend, and I will increase PoPs for Thursday night thru
Friday night, especially across the I-85 corridor and south. Breezy
NELY winds will also exist across the Piedmont, due to this track.

The biggest concern with this westward shift in track will be heavy
rain. The GFS has a nice swath of 4-6" of rain across the Midlands,
with 1-3" along and south of I-85 from early Friday thru daybreak
Saturday. The NAM has similar numbers, but the distribution is noisier,
with a maximum along the Blue Ridge, and another across the I-77
corridor. These numbers seem plausible, given the tropical moisture
being lifted by a strong right entrance upper jet region over the
tropical storm, as it crosses the Carolinas. Very strong upper
divergence is seen in all the operational models over the Carolinas
on Friday. This jet will be in place due to a digging positively
tilted upper trough across the Northeast to the Ohio Valley. So I
plan to go with a blend of the latest WPC QPF with CONSall, which results
in a tight gradient of rain from less than an inch in the mountains
to over 2" along the SE border of the CWFA from Union County, NC, to
Greenwood County, SC. Severe weather (namely, tropical tornadoes),
should stay mainly south and east of the CWFA, even with the inland
shift in the track, as the best environment is usually on the right
side of the track.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday, Tropical Storm Hermine currently in the Gulf
should be leaving the mid Atlantic coast Saturday evening as cool
Canadian high pressure remains over the East states in the wake of
the departing tropical system. Surface high pressure will weaken in
the first half of next week as 500mb heights build over the
Southeast. This will result in temperatures going from slightly
below normal on Sunday to almost a category above on Wednesday.

The GFS has the tropical system tracking from CAE to Greensboro on
saturday with a brief convective area forming near our mtns then
moving toward CLT Saturday evening. The current ECMWF has the
tropical system tracking along the Carolina coast Friday night and
Saturday then taking it well off the outer banks by Saturday
evening. The EC hints at nearby small convective areas in the wake
of the system. The 500mb heights max out on Wed over our area with
594 to 597 values before heights start to depress with the next
trough crossing the upper plains. The old EC flattens 500mb heights
from west to east in late week but GFS is maintaining some form of
the ridge over the east. As this ridge weakens the models show some
weak disturbances approaching from the west Wed night but otherwise
dry weather. The EC has a new tropical system reaching Florida at
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT: Expect mainly few to sct debris clouds the rest of the
night with light southerly surface winds. Thursday convective
coverage will depend a great deal on how quickly the approaching
front will arrive from the NW, but with chances generally capped at
40 percent through late day before increasing just beyond the
current TAF period. Otherwise, expect SCT to BKN mid level clouds
through Thursday with winds coming up a bit from the SW.

Elsewhere: Convective coverage will continue to wane overnight with
the frontal boundary still well to the northwest. Expect mountain
valley stratus and fog to develop, but with the lower restrictions
primarily in the southwest mountain valleys a bit farther from the
debris clouds. Thunderstorm chances will increase through the day on
Thursday with light S winds becoming more SW with time.

Outlook: Convective chances increase Thursday night as a cold front
pushes into the area. After that, our attention turns to
developments in the Gulf of Mexico and TS Hermine. The model trend
has been farther west with recent runs, which would have a more
direct impact on KCLT beginning some time on Friday depending on how
fast the system moves. The tropical system should move fairly fast,
so conditions should revert back to VFR for the weekend and beyond.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Low   56%     High  89%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     Med   75%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
839 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-020045-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
839 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PUSH INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA. HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 85. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK MAY CONTINUE TO SHIFT
MORE INLAND...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER
SOURCE FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-020045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
839 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG