Rip Current in Puerto Rico, March 19, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1111 AM AST SAT MAR 19 2016

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION. PRESENT FORECAST
PACKAGE IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED
FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. UPPER
RIDGE IS TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
850-700 MILLIBARS WINDS TO VEER AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT SOMEWHAT WARMER THEN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS DURG PRD. NO CHG TO PREV AVN DISCUSSION.
MOSTLY SCT CU FL020-030 ACROSS LCL FLYING AREA W/SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA
FEW TOPS FL100-120 EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS 19/17Z-19/23Z. NO OTHER
SIG AVN WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...OVERALL SEAS CONTD AT 5-7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLC
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES...AND DUE TO MODERATE LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL ACTION AND SLIGHT WIND CHOP...ELSEWHERE SEAS 2-4
FEET...AND MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF S AND SW PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION AND
STABLE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIGHT EAST TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LOCAL REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. HOWEVER...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE
FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 19/18Z. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT
AROUND 10-15KT TODAY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

MARINE...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MANY OF OUR
LOCAL BEACHES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE UP TO 7 FEET.
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MAINLY DUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDING SWELL ACTION. SEAS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  74  88  75 /  10  20  20  20
STT  85  75  85  76 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ
     AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

09/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
720 AM AST SAT MAR 19 2016

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-201130-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
720 AM AST SAT MAR 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.WAVES...CHOPPY CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES TODAY.

.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE EXPOSED BEACHES ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS NORTHERN BEACHES OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COAST BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RIP CURRENTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-201130-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
720 AM AST SAT MAR 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.WAVES...CHOPPY CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES TODAY.

.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE EXPOSED BEACHES ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF ST.
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND ST. CROIX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COAST BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RIP CURRENTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN.