Tornado and Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, February 24, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
602 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING... THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
OR SEVERE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...
THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
145 PM EST UPDATE...
RAIN IS STEADILY MOVING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
THROUGH 6PM. DO NOT FORESEE ANY FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE ONGOING
RAIN. ATTM WE DO NOT HAVE ANY MAJOR ICE JAMS AND RUNOFF FROM
CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY PROBLEMS.

THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS TONIGHT AS A STRONG SFC
LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE TIME FRAME
OF 22-06Z THURS. GUIDANCE STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT... WITH VALUES OF ML CAPE RANGING FROM 200-500
J/KG... WHICH IS DECENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. INSTABILITY WILL
BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS RISING. FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA OVER NEPA IS REACHING THE MID 40S. THESE TEMPS WILL NEED TO
RISE A BIT TO REACH OUR FULL POTENTIAL. TEMPS TODAY WILL HAVE A NON-
DIURNAL TREND AND CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING THE 50S AROUND 02Z TONIGHT.

ONE THING IS CERTAIN... WE WILL HAVE VERY STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR... THUS
FOR SEVERE DEVELOP WE DO NOT NEED MUCH IN THE CASE OF INSTABILITY. A
STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 00Z TONIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER... A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE TSTORMS MAY BE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. GUSTY
TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THERE WILL BE HIGH VALUES OF LOW LVL SR HELICITY... THUS
CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIN UP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AS WELL. THE MID
LVL THETA-E RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY AROUND THIS TIME
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL END AS WELL.

THE THREAT FOR FLOODING THROUGH 12Z WED IS OVERALL LOW. IF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND THEN START TO TRAIN... THERE
MAY BE A PROBLEM. BUT ATTM DO NOT SEE ANY IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM EST UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE IN. UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 40S THURS MORNING AND SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON
THURS. THUS PRECIP TYPE WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THE
EVENING.BY FRIDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE REGION... WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRI... THUS TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE
MORNING LOW.

WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRI
EVENING/NIGHT RESULTING IN LE SNOW SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY END.
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH
SAY NIGHT... BUT FOR THE MOST PART MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE UPPER
MID WEST NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN FA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. ON MONDAY, POST FRONTAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY
QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGH IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THEN AFTER
THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT READINGS WILL BE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A WAVE PUSHES CONVECTION THROUGH THE
TERMINALS.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z THIS EVENING.

LLWS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BORDERLINE IFR TO LOW MVFR
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATE DAY.

FRI...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT THROUGH SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THINKING REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE INCOMING SYSTEM.

CURRENT PROJECTIONS STILL POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF 0.5-1.0" OF
TOTAL PRECIPITATION (RAIN PLUS MELTED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES)
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION, WITH 1.0-1.5" ALONG AND E OF THE
I-81 CORRIDOR, THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE DRAWN OUT TIME
PERIOD INVOLVED HERE (24+ HRS), PLUS SEASONALLY LOW FLOWS, AND THE
LACK OF OBSERVED ICE IN THE CHANNELS, LARGER STEM RIVER PROBLEMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

IF ANY BRIEF PERIODS OF CONCENTRATED RAINFALL OCCUR THIS EVENING
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (PERHAPS 0.5-0.75" IN 3-6 HRS), MINOR
RUNOFF ISSUES WOULD BE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES ON
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES. WE'LL WATCH THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NYZ009-015>018-022-036-037-252100-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
353 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE LARGER RIVERS AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL MONITOR SMALLER TRIBUTARIES CLOSELY FOR SHARP
RISES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ023>025-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-252100-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-
DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
353 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE LARGER RIVERS AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL MONITOR SMALLER TRIBUTARIES CLOSELY FOR SHARP
RISES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
626 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NYZ017-024-055-056-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-250100-
BROOME NY-TIOGA NY-CHEMUNG NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-
LACKAWANNA PA-NORTHERN WAYNE PA-LUZERNE PA-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
WYOMING PA-BRADFORD PA-PIKE PA-
626 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CHEMUNG...BROOME...TIOGA...
WYOMING...LUZERNE...SUSQUEHANNA...BRADFORD...LACKAWANNA...WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES...

* AT 624 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LINE OF STRONG
  THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CHEMUNG...BROOME...TIOGA...WYOMING...
  LUZERNE...SUSQUEHANNA...BRADFORD...LACKAWANNA...WAYNE AND PIKE
  COUNTIES.

* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
  LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* THE STORMS WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE REACHING THE ELMIRA AREA
  BY 7 PM... THEN MOVE ACROSS THE BINGHAMTON... SCRANTON AND WILKES-
  BARRE AREAS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM.

* IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN... STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
  THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL INCLUDE...
  CHEMUNG...SCRANTON...BINGHAMTON...WILKES-BARRE...ELMIRA...JOHNSON
  CITY...ENDICOTT...BERWICK...CARBONDALE...PORT JERVIS...PITTSTON...
  SAYRE...HONESDALE...OWEGO...MONTAGUE...ATHENS...TOWANDA...CANTON...
  TUNKHANNOCK AND DEPOSIT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4095 7621 4120 7632 4154 7622 4160 7688
      4203 7697 4226 7673 4230 7625 4270 7627
      4241 7625 4241 7587 4225 7584 4220 7542
      4202 7541 4181 7507 4148 7499 4135 7472
      4110 7504 4125 7513 4123 7551 4101 7574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 180DEG 0KT 4142 7726 4091 7680 4017 7686

MSE