Strong south winds brought high surf to some south facing beaches along the southern Oregon coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Strong south winds brought high surf to some south facing beaches along the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 9, 10:06 PM PST, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1006 PM PST WED MAR 9 2016
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST HEADLINES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR 48N AND 130W WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN
STRONG WINDS FELT ALONG THE COAST WHERE HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH A PEAK GUST TO
81 MPH AT CAPE BLANCO AT AROUND 5 PM. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A
BREEZY TO WINDY NIGHT FOR MANY...WIND HEADLINES CAN BE VIEWED AT
NPWMFR.
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE
CURRENTLY AND WILL SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. RADAR IS SHOWING THIS
BAND MOVING ONSHORE, BUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE SHASTA, ROGUE
AND THE UMPQUA VALLEYS SOUTH OF SUTHERLIN/ROSEBURG WILL CAUSE
PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF IN THOSE AREAS UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST...WESTERN JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES...PERHAPS
A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT IN THE COAST RANGES OF CURRY COUNTY.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA REGION WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ENCOURAGE HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES.
OVERALL, EXPECT 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE ROGUE/SHASTA VALLEYS,
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS WHERE DOWNSLOPE HOLDS ON LONGEST.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, THE FRONT WILL LOSE SOME PUNCH AS IT CROSSES
THE CASCADES, SO RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THERE WILL BE LOWER...AROUND
0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH...ABOVE 6000 FEET, SO
WINTER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THIS FRONT. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/06Z TAF CYCLE...WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 1-5 HOURS FOR NORTH BEND, ROSEBURG, AND
MEDFORD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO TURBULENCE AND BUMPY RIDES IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MANY AREAS, THOUGH EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL LOWER CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT LEAST WITH TERRAIN
BECOMING TOTALLY OBSCURED. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR IN THE SHASTA
REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INLAND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, SITES BY EVENING. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 405 PM PST WED 09 MAR 2016...A STORM WILL UNDERGO
INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFFSHORE REACHING 965 MB BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH A SHARP DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
BRING STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS SEAS INTO TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION, THE COASTAL JET WILL FORM THIS EVENING WITH THE HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ALONG A THIN BAND BETWEEN 8 AND 20 NM OF SHORE
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO JUST REMAIN IN PORT DURING THIS PERIOD OF
STORMY WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT A NEW SERIES OF STRONG STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE, ANY BREAKS IN STORMINESS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SHORT-LIVED. -SVEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM PST WED MAR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CLOUD SHIELD WITH SMALLER MOUNTAIN
WAVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED AROUND 44 DEGREES NORTH AND 134 DEGREES WEST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA, BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG WINDS AT OUR GENERALLY WINDIER
SPOTS WEST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING THE SHASTA VALLEY. AREAS OF
THE COAST ARE SHOWING WIND GUSTS NEAR 65 MPH WHILE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES SUCH AS ONION MOUNTAIN AND SQUAW
PEAK ARE SHOWING THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TOPPING OUT AT NEAR 70
AND 90 MPH RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD TO EAST OF
THE CASCADES INTO TONIGHT, SO WILL ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS
AND WIND ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT, PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE
OF MOUNT SHASTA WHERE THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING WILL BE THE MOST
INFLUENTIAL ASPECT REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE, AREAS OF THE SHASTA AND ROGUE VALLEYS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPED, SO THEY WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL; BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND THE COAST WITH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
(IVT) VALUES ALSO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THESE VALLEYS TO BE COMPLETELY DRY, AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTH END
OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY RISE TO ABOUT 7000
FT TONIGHT BEFORE FALLING TO 5000-6000 FT TOMORROW MORNING.
OVERALL, 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE COAST WITH 1-2
INCHES POSSIBLE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MAYBE A HALF AN
INCH ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE THE BRIEFEST OF BREAKS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT MODELS
ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE WET
AND WINDY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. A FEW MORE WET AND
WINDY SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM WIND
TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT OUR WINDIER
SPOTS WILL NOT SEE ANY WIND IMPACTS. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS; THEY JUST WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS THEY
WILL BE TONIGHT.
THE RAINFALL FOR THE BEGINNING PART OF THE WEEKEND, ON THE OTHER
HAND, WILL BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND
FOR MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS (BELOW 3000 FEET) WEST OF THE
CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD VERY WELL BE IN EXCESS OF 3-6
INCHES AT THE COAST SOUTH OF COOS BAY, WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY,
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. EVEN THE ROGUE VALLEY
AND UMPQUA RIVER BASIN COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH
WITHIN A 48 HOUR PERIOD. HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR
CREEKS, SMALL STREAMS, AND URBAN AREAS TO COVER THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR THESE AREAS. OTHER IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE LANDSLIDES
BLOCKING ROADWAYS--ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND OVER
ANY BURN SCARS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER, VARYING BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET; SO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THESE LOW SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO HELP TO
INHIBIT EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT WHICH COULD HAVE EXACERBATED FLOODING
CONCERNS.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FINAL FRONTAL SYSTEM IN
THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER-ENDING STRING OF SYSTEMS WE'VE HAD MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS TO THE USUAL LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT LOW
(AROUND 3000 FEET), BUT A BRIEF SURGE OF RELATIVELY WARM AIR WILL
DRIVE SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COLDER AIR SURGES IN AGAIN BEHIND THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 3000 FEET AGAIN.
EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF US ON MONDAY, A STRONG UPPER
JET WILL BE OVERHEAD, AND STRONG, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AT THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THE ENTIRE WEST SIDE,
AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE HEFTY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE COAST AND UPWARDS
OF AN INCH OVER INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS. SINCE THE GROUND WILL
ALREADY BE SOAKED AND RIVERS STRESSED FROM PREVIOUS STORMS, FLOOD
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO THIS PERIOD AS WELL. LOWER SNOW
LEVELS WILL HELP, HOWEVER.
AS MENTIONED, SNOW LEVELS WILL VARY, BUT AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL
SEE SNOW THE ENTIRE TIME, AND IT WILL REALLY PILE UP. PLACES LIKE
CRATER/DIAMOND LAKE AND MT. ASHLAND WILL PROBABLY SEE 1-2 FEET OF
SNOW WITH MORE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER PASSES (AROUND CRATER/DIAMOND
LAKE AND LAKE OF THE WOODS) WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS FROM SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SISKIYOU SUMMIT WILL ALSO BE
IMPACTED, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHEN SNOW LEVELS REALLY FALL AND THE
FLOW IS MORE FAVORABLE. AT THIS TIME, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE LOW
ELEVATION PASSES BETWEEN GRANTS PASS AND ROSEBURG WILL BE AFFECTED
BY SNOW, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT AS IT WOULDN'T
TAKE MUCH MORE COOLING TO BRING SNOW DOWN TO THOSE LOCATIONS AS
WELL. LAST BUT NOT LEAST, WE WILL ALSO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE
EAST SIDE, BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK EXCESSIVE RIGHT NOW. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE THE MOST, BUT THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A PLOWABLE SNOW
DURING THE PERIOD. ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET (MORE CERTAIN ABOVE
5000 FEET) WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER WEATHER WATCHES, ADVISORIES,
AND WARNINGS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND DETAILS BECOME CLEAR.
IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST SIDE, THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE JET GRADUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTH, BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. IT PROBABLY WON'T EVEN TOTALLY DRY
OUT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PACNW BY WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL FINALLY BRING DRY WEATHER
LATER NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. -WRIGHT
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023>025.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ026.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ084-085.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
MAS/BMS/TRW/SBNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.
The Umpqua Offshore buoy recorded waves that would produce high surf along the coast twice during this time interval.
The Umpqua Offshore buoy recorded waves that would produce high surf along the coast twice during this time interval.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 615476, 615477.