Heavy rains caused a moderate flood on the Coquille River at Coquille.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Heavy rains caused a moderate flood on the Coquille River at Coquille.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 18, 5:12 AM PST, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
512 AM PST MON JAN 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S MAJOR FRONTAL SYSTEM THE COQUILLE RIVER
CONTINUES TO RISE ABOVE ACTION STAGE ON THE SOUTH FORK AT MYRTLE
POINT AND AT COQUILLE. THE ROGUE RIVER AT AGNESS IS CURRENTLY
CRESTING AT A FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET. THE SCOTT AND KLAMATH ARE
STILL RISING, AS WELL, WITH THE SCOTT CURRENTLY AT ACTION STAGE.
OTHER WATERWAYS ARE ELEVATED, WITH MOST RECEDING. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THE ROGUE AT AGNESS AND THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE WILL BE
THE TWO FORECAST POINTS TO REACH FLOOD STAGE FROM THIS EVENT.
LITTLE BUTTE CREEK DID ALSO FLOOD ON SUNDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM YESTERDAY'S STORM WERE PRETTY CLOSE TO
FORECAST, BUT THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM SNOW MELT AND POSSIBLY FROM
WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM OUR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST MONTH AND A HALF RESULTED IN A GREATER HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
OF NOTE, THE SNOW THAT FELL IN THE MOUNTAINS YESTERDAY AT 6-8KFT
ELEVATIONS WAS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH AN IMPRESSIVELY
WET 5:1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO...MEANING THAT 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAD
2 INCHES OF WATER IN IT!
THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN SOME WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. THIS FOG HAS BEEN SPORADIC IN MANY AREAS DUE TO SOME WIND
AND INSTABILITY REMAINING. INCREASING STABILITY THIS MORNING IS
LIKELY TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR MANY WEST SIDE VALLEY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES LATER THIS
MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ONTO THE WEST SIDE, BUT IS LIKELY TO GET HUNG
UP ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST RANGE. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING APPROXIMATELY THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND ONTO THE
COOS COUNTY COAST. MODEL SPREAD IS STILL FAIRLY LARGE ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, BUT THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
CONSENSUS AND RESOLVES THE VALLEY-MOUNTAIN DETAILS BETTER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS, SO MOSTLY RELIED ON THIS. THERE WILL BE SOME HAZARDS
TO BE AWARE OF WITH THIS LOW SHOULD IT DEVELOP LIKE THE
NAM12/CONSENSUS INDICATES. THESE ARE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST,
IN THE MOUNTAINS, SHASTA VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE ON
TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
ADDITIONALLY VERY NOTABLE FOR TUESDAY IS THAT THE GFS AND THE
NAM12 INDICATE COLD AIR OVERTAKING A LOWER LEVEL WARM SECTOR
LINGERING ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD GIVE RISE TO
SLANTWISE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
ON SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WIND DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE COOS BAY TO
MYRTLE POINT AREAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR ASSOCIATED STRONG
POST FRONTAL WINDS COULD PUSH ONTO THE COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR
WEST SIDE. THIS SORT OF DEVELOPMENT IS KNOWN AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT OR BENT BACK OCCLUSION. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRING, BUT HIGH IMPACT TYPE OF EVENT. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT IT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW, IT SEEMS LIKELY TO
OCCUR, HOWEVER, THOUGH PINNING DOWN THE LOCATION AND SEVERITY IS
PROBLEMATIC UNTIL IT STARTS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO BE AFFECTED ARE WEST SIDE AREAS IN OREGON BETWEEN
FROM BROOKINGS AND GRANTS PASS NORTHWARD TO COOS BAY AND ROSEBURG.
CURRENT HEADLINES DEPICT MAINLY THE HIGHER LEVEL THREATS FROM
THIS LOW. SUSPECT WE'LL PROBABLY NEED SOME ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
AFTER THE TUESDAY STORM MODELS INDICATE A WARMER PERIOD THROUGH
THURSDAY, TURNING COOLER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE BRIEF, AS ENSEMBLES AND CLIMATE MODELS KEEP THE
STORM TRACK LOCKED IN PLACE OVER AND NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA PRETTY
MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 4+ WEEKS. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18/12Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
FINALLY FORMED IN KRBG AND STILL PERSIST AT KMFR. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST MONDAY WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AT THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SPREADS
INLAND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS. SMITH
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 340 AM PST MONDAY 18 JAN 2016...THIS MORNING HIGH
WEST SWELL WILL BRING CONTINUED STEEP SEAS. A FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG SOUTH WINDS TODAY WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE AND SEAS
BECOMING VERY STEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER BRIEFLY TONIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AS WELL AS VERY STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND 10NM FROM
SHORE AND FROM BANDON SOUTHWARD TO CAPE FERRELO ON TUESDAY WITH
GALES ELSEWHERE. MODELS SHOW VARIABILITY ON THE TRACK AND EXACT
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ORZ030-031.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ORZ021-022.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ021-023>026-028.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ORZ027-028.
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ085.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080>082.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ083.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CAZ082.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ370.
BTL/CC/CZSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
549 AM PST MON JAN 18 2016
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM HEAVY RAIN GOLD BEACH 42.41N 124.42W
01/18/2016 M2.28 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL. OBSERVER LOCATION 4 MI UP
ROGUE RIVER S SIDE.
&&
CSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
724 AM PST MON JAN 18 2016
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N PROVOLT 42.32N 123.23W
01/18/2016 M1.59 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL. OBSERVER LOCATION 6 MILES
EAST OF MURPHY.
&&
CSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
725 AM PST MON JAN 18 2016
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0725 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW EAGLE POINT 42.53N 122.85W
01/18/2016 M1.48 INCH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL. OBSERVER LOCATION .5 MILES
FROM DODGE BRIDGE.
&&
CSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Coquille River at Coquille exceeded the flood stage of 21.0 feet at 18/0752 PST. It crested at 23.34 feet at 20/1215 PST, which constitutes a moderate flood. It dropped below flood stage at 18/1851 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611117.