Flooding in Oregon, January 17, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 AM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. ONE WAS TO ADJUST WINDS LOWER IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE EASTSIDE FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS
EAST OF THE CASCADES SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND PEAK
OUT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGE. RED MOUND
HAS REPORTED 0.85 OF AN INCH IN THE LAST 3 HOURS. WE HAVE ALSO HAD
A COUPLE OF SPOTTER REPORTS OF ALMOST 1.50 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 8 AM PST IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THE CORE OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL COME DOWN
TO AROUND 5500 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH, THUS
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WE'LL GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER, BUT WEAKER FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE'LL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
DEVELOPING LOW INSIDE OF 130 W EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SO FAR THE
12Z NAM, GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 17/12Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT WILL BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TODAY.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TODAY WITH TERRAIN
BECOMING TOTALLY OBSCURED AS PRECIPITATION FROM THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
MORNING, INCLUDING AT KOTH, KRBG AND KMFR. THIS EVENING EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING
SCATTERED LATE IN THE NIGHT. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH VFR AND
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST.  /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST SUNDAY 17 JAN 2016...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS AS A FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THIS
MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME SWELL DOMINATED TODAY AS A HEAVY WEST
SWELL BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL LOWER
SLIGHTLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE IN THE WATERS
BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. OF NOTE, THE FRONT ON TUESDAY MAY BRING STRONG GALES TO THE
WATERS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
-WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM PST SUN JAN 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FEEDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MORPHED INTO A BROAD AREA OF
MODERATE RAINFALL NOW MOVING RAPIDLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. OVER THE LAST HOUR BROOKINGS HAS REPORTED
0.36" OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CURRY...JOSEPHINE...AND
SISKIYOU COUNTIES WHERE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES AND MID-ELEVATION
SNOW MELT ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
STREAMS AND CREEKS. ADDITIONALLY...THE STABILITY OF BURN SCARS IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AT THE JULY AND HAPPY CAMP WILDFIRE COMPLEXES
ARE LIKELY TO BE TESTED TODAY. IF FLOODING APPEARS IMMINENT ON
RADAR AND/OR BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THESE FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS.

SNOW LEVELS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 7KFT ACROSS THE
AREA CAUSING MID-ELEVATION SNOW MELT. ABOVE 5.5KFT SUSPECT THAT
ANY RAIN WILL BE EASILY ABSORBED BY OUR ROBUST SNOWPACK, AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 5500 FEET THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 7KFT, WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 5500 FEET. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PREFERRED AGAIN WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR
THE SNOW LEVEL FORECAST DUE TO ITS GOOD SPATIAL REPRESENTATION OF
CURRENT SNOW LEVELS AS COMPARED TO AREA OBSERVATIONS. IT IS
ENCOURAGING THAT OTHER MODELS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THIS MODEL IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS. DURING PEAK PRECIPITATION RATES TODAY I LOWERED
SNOW LEVELS TO 500-1000 FEET BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO CONSISTENT
HISTORY OF THIS OCCURRING IN SUCH EVENTS. THIS MIGHT NOT BE LOW
ENOUGH, BUT SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD AVERAGE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO DUE
TO POSSIBLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL FORECAST FIELDS AND REALITY.

REGARDING WINDS, HEADLINES WERE LEFT INTACT FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUS FAR, WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE, AND
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY, INDICATING TWO BANDS OF
WIND MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH RATHER THAN ONE CONSOLIDATED MAXIMUM.
THERE ARE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THIS STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM,
HOWEVER, AND THIS CAN EASILY LEAD TO BRIEFLY GUSTY AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AS DEPICTED BY CURRENT HEADLINES. IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE MEDFORD AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL NOT OCCUR.

AFTER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT'S STORM THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON DETAILS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. MODEL TRENDS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS INDICATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SUBSTANTIAL WIND AND RAIN, BUT NOTHING EXCESSIVE. SNOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK TO BE LOWER, NEAR 5000-5500 FEET. GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOWPACK AT MID-ELEVATIONS, IT
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING STREAM FLOW RESPONSE TO THE OVERALL
UPWARD SHIFT IN SNOW LEVELS. IF NOTHING ELSE, SUSPECT WE'LL
INCREASE FILL RATES FOR OUR STILL ROOMY AREA RESERVOIRS. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ORZ022-024.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ085.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-082.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ084.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1207 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW LAKESIDE          43.59N 124.18W
01/17/2016  M1.41 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL ENDING AT NOON. OBSERVER
            LOCATION 1.5 MI E. OF PACIFIC OCEAN ADJACENT
            TO DUNES.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1210 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NNW ROGUE RIVER       42.53N 123.20W
01/17/2016  M1.03 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 HOUR AND 15 MINUTE RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE
            THE RAIN BEGAN AT 7:45 AM. OBSERVER LOCATION
            ASHLAND.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1211 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SE SELMA              42.23N 123.52W
01/17/2016  M1.43 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM.
            OBSERVER LOCATION N FORK THOMPSON CR RD
            ACROSS FROM BORICA.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1224 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N ROSEBURG            43.23N 123.36W
01/17/2016  M1.01 INCH       DOUGLAS            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HOUR AND 15 MINUTE TOTAL ENDING AT 12:15
            PM. OBSERVER LOCATION NW EDEN HEIGHTS TOP OF
            HILL.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1233 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
01/17/2016  M3.01 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 AND A HALF HOUR REPORT ENDING AT 12:30
            PM. OBSERVER LOCATION 1 MI S OF OBRIEN.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1248 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW SITKUM            43.18N 123.87W
01/17/2016  M1.00 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 AND A HALF HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 12:45 PM
            OBSERVER LOCATION 27.0 MI NE MYRTLE POINT.

&&

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