Heavy rains brought flooding to several rivers and creeks in southwest Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Heavy rains brought flooding to several rivers and creeks in southwest Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 14, 3:22 PM PST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
322 PM PST Wed Dec 14 2016
Updated short term discussion to discuss winds and short term
cold temperatures.
.DISCUSSION...A high-impact winter storm continues to affect
Northern California and Southern Oregon with heavy rain at the
coast and west of the Cascades, snow east of the Cascades from
Chiloquin northward, and some high winds in the Shasta Valley and
areas east of the Cascades.
A Winter Storm Warning will expire around 4pm as snow levels
continue to rise over the Cascades and portions of the East Side.
After that time, the most significant impacts will be confined to
areas east of the Cascades north of Chiloquin where lingering
cold air at the surface will help maintain snow or a mix of
snow/rain/freezing rain through the afternoon, potentially
changing to all rain this evening, then transitioning back to snow
tonight with snow expected through early Thursday morning. We have
relied on HRRR surface temperature output to provide an idea on
where the freezing temperatures will last the longest and have
adjusted based on observations. A Winter Weather Advisory at WSW
has been issued to cover this. Snow is also expected to impact the
highest elevations of the Cascades through the night, like the
Crater Lake Rim. Lower elevations in the mountains will likely
receive sub- advisory snow amounts but still expect some snow
accumulation in the mountain passes as the cold front moves
through quickly Thursday morning.
The heavy rain threat continues through Thursday morning, and an
Areal Flood Watch has been maintained at FFAMFR to highlight the
potential impacts from the rain. We have added most of Jackson
County given the already-impressive rainfall received last night and
today. Also, we have issued a flood advisory for some areas of the
West Side to include the Applegate and Highway 238 and the Illinois
Valley area. Models suggest that when the front pushes back to the
south tonight, the duration of heavy rain won't be long-duration, so
the threat for flooding does diminish some tonight. Still, rivers
and streams are rising sharply this afternoon, and drivers should
use caution when traveling in flood-prone areas. -NSK
Winds in the short term will be another major concern in the
forecast. The strongest winds are expected to be across the
Cascades and eastward this afternoon and evening. Current
observations indicate that winds are following the forecast well
in the Shasta valley as well as in Modoc County, but are slow to
increase across the Eastside in Oregon. Winds are still forecast
to pick up later this evening, around 4:00 PM PST. They will begin
to come down around 7 or 8 PM PST and become lighter after 4 AM
PST. While winds are strong, visibilities may be reduced due to
rainfall and possible blowing snow. Otherwise, winds will be
relatively light for the next few days.
Temperatures are going to be the main concern after this system
moves out of the area. Although temperatures are going to be heavily
moderated due to cloud cover tonight through tomorrow, skies are
expected to clear out and this will allow temperatures to plummet,
especially across areas which are snow-covered beginning Friday
night. West of the Cascades including the coast, temperatures are
going to range in the 20s and 30s with a few isolated higher
elevation places reaching into the teens. Meanwhile on the Eastside
and across Modoc County, temperatures are expected to reach into the
teens and single digits.
The coldest night will be on Friday night. Guidance is showing
frigid temperatures across the Eastside, but the clear skies and
cloud cover will likely mean even colder temperatures than what
guidance is showing. This means that temperatures will reach near
zero and below zero in many locations including Klamath Falls,
Lakeview, and Alturas. More northerly places like Chemult may even
see temperatures plummeting to negative 10 degrees. West of the
cascades, temperatures will remain similar with lows reaching the
20s and 30s with the warmer of these temperatures occurring near the
coast. Temperatures will be slow to recover, and will continue the
cold trends through the weekend. -Schaaf
Saturday through Wednesday...It will be a cold start to the
weekend Saturday morning with at least freezing temperatures over
the entire area inland from the immediate coast. With mainly clear
skies, fresh snow cover, and a 1030 mb surface high parked just to
the east, the east side will be quite cold. Lows Saturday morning
will be below zero over much of the east side, with lows
potentially 10 to 15 degrees below zero over northern Klamath and
Lake counties. On Sunday, the GFS shows a weak disturbance
bringing some snow showers to the north Cascades and portions of
the east side. The ECMWF and GEM show the disturbance much further
north and not affecting us at all. It's worthy of some low pops,
but we've definitely skewed it toward the drier solutions. Monday
should be dry as a weak ridge pokes in over us, but by Tuesday and
Wednesday, another system is likely to bring precipitation to our
area. All the models show a moderately wet system during this
timeframe, but there are some timing differences with the ECMWF
being about 12 hours faster than any other model. Snow levels
should be high enough (4000 feet plus) that impacts will be mostly
in the mountains. However, the east side may see snow in places.
-Wright
.AVIATION...14/18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR and local LIFR conditions are
expected to be the predominate condition through at least early this
afternoon for most inland locations. Currently North Bend has VFR
conditions with the TAF showing CIGS lowering to borderline MVFR
around 16z, but this could occur earlier and CIGS will continue to
lower there late this morning into the afternoon. Freezing levels
will start at 5000 to 6000 feet and drop to around 2000 to 3000 feet
by midnight. Low cigs in the Rogue Valley will rise for a few hours
early this afternoon with the increase in downsloping winds; but if
the winds do not come, then conditions will be slow to improve if at
all. There's also a chance for winds to briefly switch to the south
briefly in Roseburg, but confidence is not high enough to put it
into the TAF. On the east side, snow will make a transition to rain
today. Although this transition will be relatively quick, there will
be the chance for freezing rain in the morning hours. There is also
a chance for CIGS to improve to VFR as the warm front lifts north,
but winds will become gusty, with low level wind shear and mountain
turbulence likely to be widespread concerns. -Petrucelli/Schaaf
.MARINE...Updated 900 AM PST Wednesday 14 December 2016...Buoy 15
and 27 observations are showing slightly less winds than currently
forecast. In the short term (next few hours), the RAP seems to be
capturing the winds quite well and have blended the previous
forecast to it. Otherwise, we are still expecting the low pressure
system to come into our waters today. Models are in good agreement
with the track of the surface low which is expected to move inland
near Gold Beach. This will result in a brief shot of increasing
south winds from around Brookings south around mid afternoon.
However we are only expecting small craft conditions. Meanwhile, the
wind waves will encounter the swell and seas could get choppy over
the outer waters and portions of the inner waters. The small craft
advisory for for hazardous seas continues to address this issue. The
south winds should be brief and winds are expected to quickly shift
to the north as the surface low moves inland later this afternoon,
but they will remain below small craft. The fresh south swell
generated by the south winds ahead of the upper low are expected to
migrate northward through the northern waters this evening and
continue through Thursday. North winds will increase some with
borderline small craft possible in the southern outer waters late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Calmer conditions are expected
Friday into next weekend. -Petrucelli/Schaaf
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
ORZ029>031.
Flood Watch through late tonight for ORZ021-022-024-026-028.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ029.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon ABOVE 5000
FEET for for ORZ027-028.
CA...High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ085.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ085.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ084.
Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for CAZ080>083.
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ080.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ081.
Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
CAZ084-085.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Flood Watch through late tonight for PZZ356.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
PZZ356-376.
NSK/BMS/TRWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
127 PM PST WED DEC 14 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0127 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 E GOLD BEACH 42.43N 124.31W
12/14/2016 U1.00 INCH CURRY OR PUBLIC
.
&&
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
205 PM PST WED DEC 14 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0205 PM HEAVY SNOW 9 SSE SUMMER LAKE 42.86N 120.69W
12/14/2016 M12.0 INCH LAKE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
SINCE 4 AM.
&&
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 PM PST WED DEC 14 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE GRANTS PASS 42.43N 123.26W
12/14/2016 U3.12 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED 4-5" OF STANDING WATER ON
HWY 238 IN THE APPLEGATE VALLEY IN MULTIPLE
AREAS, ALSO REPORTED AREAS OF FLOODING WEST
OF GRANTS PASS, INCLUDING INUNDATED FIELDS.
.
&&
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
221 PM PST WED DEC 14 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.13N 124.32W
12/14/2016 M5.25 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
.
&&
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
354 PM PST WED DEC 14 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0353 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 W OBRIEN 42.06N 123.73W
12/14/2016 U4.40 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED LOW SPOTS WITH PUDDLES OF 6
TO 8 INCHES OF WATER .
&&
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
419 PM PST WED DEC 14 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNE TAKILMA 42.11N 123.58W
12/14/2016 M3.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
24 HOURS.
&&
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEMThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Deer Creek at Roseburg rose above flood stage (10.0 feet) at 14/1630 PST, and reached moderate flood stage (13.0 feet) at 14/1930 PST. The river crested at 13.05 feet at 14/2000 PST. It fell below moderate flood stage at 15/0100 PST and below flood stage at 15/0600 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 665744.