Funnel Cloud in Oregon, April 22, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
946 AM PDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER OREGON TODAY FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM...THEN MOVE EAST
OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY FOR DECREASING SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED EVEN COLDER LOW WILL NOT MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... AND SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN CORVALLIS AND
PORTLAND BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS NOW MOVED
INTO SW WASHINGTON BUT ACCORDING TO CURRENT SFC OBS AND RADAR RAIN
RATES ARE LOWER.  RENEWED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS A LOW OFFSHORE MOVES INTO THE AREA BRINGING A MORE UNSTABLE
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE AIR MASS
STABILIZING A LOT QUICKER THAN THE THU NIGHT SYSTEM SO EXPECT THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 7 OR 8 PM.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK AS HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A LARGE
SCALE SENSE...THOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING FOR A DECREASE IN SHOWERS...BUT THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATER SATURDAY AND PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE COLDER PARENT LOW SAGS SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY... LINGERING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DIGGING SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE
THUNDER. IN ADDITION... SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO WELL BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE BELOW THE
PASSES MONDAY. LOOK FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PASSES
DURING THAT TIME.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES IN
THE VALLEYS. THUS THIS LOOKS TO BE A REASONABLY WET PERIOD AFTER OUR
RECENT COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM SPELLS. /MH TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING IN SYSTEM AFTER
SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING DOWN ON MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DRYING US OUT FOR TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DIVERGE SOME ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM WILL BRING
US ANY RAIN OR NOT. NEWER RUNS LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM GOING JUST SOUTH OF US. IF THIS IS TRUE...WE MAY GET CLIPPED
BY A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY IN THE OREGON PART OF OUR
AREA...BUT WASHINGTON WOULD STAY DRY. THURSDAY THEN LOOKS DRY AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WHETHER THIS BECOMES A
STATIONARY RIDGE KEEPING US DRY INTO THE WEEKEND...OR WHETHER IT IS
MORE TRANSITORY WITH MORE SYSTEMS TO FOLLOW IS UP IN THE AIR AT THIS
TIME. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...PLENTY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY ON AVERAGE WILL BE VFR.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY
SLOT BEHIND INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS...PRESENTLY S OF KSLE...WILL
LIKELY BRING A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY FROM S TO N DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THOUGH TODAYS CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED
THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...FIRST BATCH OF HEAVY SHOWERS FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY MOVED NW OF THE PDX METRO AREA...SO
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. COULD BE AREAS OF -RA AND
MVFR PERSISTING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z...BUT SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED THAN PREVIOUS
CONVECTION THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N THROUGH THE NORTHERN
OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF BURST OF S WINDS
BEHIND IT. BUOY 46050 HAD A BRIEF GUST TO 33 KT AT 13Z...LIKELY
AIDED BY A SQUALL LINE THAT DEVELOPED WITH THE FRONT. THIS APPEARS
TO HAVE STIRRED UP SEAS LOCALLY...WITH BUOY 46050 REPORTING 9 FT
AT 8 SEC AT THE MOMENT. DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE AN SCA FOR SEAS DUE
TO THE APPARENTLY LOCALIZED NATURE OF THESE SEAS...AND EXPECT THE
SEAS TO SETTLE DOWN TO 5-7 FT LATER TODAY. HOWEVER A BATCH OF
WESTERLY SWELL IS AIMING FOR THE CENTRAL/S OREGON COAST AND SHOULD
PUSH SEAS BACK UP TO 10+ FT TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE AN
SCA FOR SEAS FOR AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER TONIGHT/SAT.

OTHERWISE BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER BUT KEEPING PRES
GRADIENTS RATHER LIGHT FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS. NEXT COLD
FRONT CROSSING 150W MAY BRING A BRIEF SURGE IN NW WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KT AS COOL AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND IT SAT NIGHT/SUN AM. HIGH
PRES EXPECTED TO BUILD IN MON/TUE FOR LIGHTER WINDS/SEAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     9 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
829 AM PDT FRI APR 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             WELCHES                 45.33N 121.97W
04/20/2016  E1.00 INCH       CLACKAMAS          OR   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AT BASEBALL
            FIELD IN WELCHES.

0400 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E JUNCTION CITY       44.22N 123.18W
04/22/2016                   LANE               OR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            18-24 INCH DIAMETER TREE SNAPPED AND BLOCKED LOVE LAKE
            ROADNEAR MILE POST 1.75 PER LANE COUNTY OFFICIALS.

&&

SWEAGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1006 AM PDT FRI APR 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FOREST GROVE            45.52N 123.10W
04/21/2016                   WASHINGTON         OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE OF UNKNOWN SIZE DOWN ALONG HWY 47 NEAR MP 42. TIME
            ESTIMATED SINCE PHONE CALL CAME INTO ODOT DISPATCH AT
            1247 AM ON 4/22.

&&

CNEUMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1013 AM PDT FRI APR 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 N CHESHIRE            44.26N 123.28W
04/22/2016                   LANE               OR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CONVECTIVE LINE MOVED NORTHWARD UP THE VALLEY AND ODOT
            DISPATCH RECEIVED A REPORT OF A SINGLE TREE DOWN ALONG
            TERRITORIAL ROAD NEAR MP 5 AT 530 AM...BUT STRONGEST LINE
            OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH AROUND 430 AM LOCAL TIME SO TIME
            IS ESTIMATED.

&&

CNEUMAN