An area of heavy rain developed ahead of a strong low pressure system.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
An area of heavy rain developed ahead of a strong low pressure system.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 24, 4:42 AM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 442 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING WHEN THEY REACH NORTHERN OHIO...AND RAIN WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD AIR GETS PULLED IN ON WESTERLY WIND. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OT LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA AND AFFECT PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SCIOTO VALLEY BEHIND A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE UPPER LOW IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR PROPERTIES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHER IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE SHEAR AND BRING ADDED STRENGTH TO STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. WHILE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT CLEAR CUT TODAY...IF THESE STORMS ARE PRESENT THEY WILL POSE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO GIVEN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE IN NORTHWESTERN CWA TODAY AND ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S. WARM AIR BEING PULLED IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WILL SEE READINGS APPROACH 60...REACHING THE LOW 60S OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS THE LOW CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON WESTERLY WINDS AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WARM AND WET GROUND BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND EXPECTED QPF...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NOTED NORTH OF METROPOLITAN DAYTON. AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN....SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND KEEP THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SHARP TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE FAR WESTERN STATES...WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND GRAZING PAST THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILN FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE CONTINUING WITHIN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ON FRIDAY MORNING...A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR NOW. A THICK STRATOCUMULUS DECK LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY TO EXIST...AND THIS MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING...WHEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TIMING AND PLACEMENT ALIGNMENT ON THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF ARE GOOD...BUT UNSURPRISINGLY...DETAILS ON THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE IN MUCH POORER AGREEMENT. AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF WARM ADVECTION...WHATEVER PRECIPITATION OCCURS SHOULD START AS RAIN...AND MAY STAY THAT WAY IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MIX WITH SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO LARGE TO ACCURATELY PREDICT A SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC RESULT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING BEYOND THAT POINT IS IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT. AFTER MONDAY...500MB GFSE PERTURBATIONS BECOME COMPLETELY MISALIGNED AND OUT OF PHASE. THUS...SPECIFICS IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY ARE VERY LOW IN CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE HAS REACHED CVG/LUK. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WRMFNT APPROACHES WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. AS LOW APPROACHES AFT 12Z...MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE STEADY RAINS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH A TEMPORARY DRY SLOT MOVG OVER THE TAFS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN. AS THE LOW MOVES NE AFT 00Z...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. SHRA WILL MIX WITH...THEN CHANGE TO SN. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE CAA. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ066-073>075-080. && SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 417 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-242130- WAYNE-FAYETTE-UNION-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN- DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN-LICKING-PREBLE- MONTGOMERY-GREENE-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD- 417 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. PERSISTENT AND STEADY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LYING AREAS TO FLOOD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE TO 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ071>074-077>082-088-242130- OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT- PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING- HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO- 417 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE TO 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INZ066-073-074-OHZ070-242130- FRANKLIN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-BUTLER- 417 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE TO 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree came up by its roots and fell into the roof of a home. Part of the roof collapsed, damaging the bathroom ceiling. The back deck and gutters were also damaged.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 613452.