Eastern Wilkes County saw periods of heavy rainfall during the overnight and early morning hours of August 3-4 with radar estimated totals of up to 3 to 5 inches. 00 inches in a 24-hour period ending at 7 AM on the 4th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
Eastern Wilkes County saw periods of heavy rainfall during the overnight and early morning hours of August 3-4 with radar estimated totals of up to 3 to 5 inches. The COOP observer at Elkin measured 3.00 inches in a 24-hour period ending at 7 AM on the 4th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 3:46 AM EST, 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
446 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the northeast U.S. will keep a wedge of
cooler moist air in place into Friday before finally retreating to
the northeast. Aloft a series of disturbances will continue to
track across the region. A weak cold front will move into the
region Saturday and then stall across North Carolina by Sunday.
The combination of these weather systems will keep a very wet and
unsettled pattern in place through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Thursday...
Persistent and familiar pattern in place with a wedge in place
enhanced considerably from the resultant cloud cover and upslope
precipitation. The persistent fetch of moist tropical air off the
Atlantic and upslope along the Blue Ridge has resulted in
excessive rainfall in spots across Wilkes, Surry, Stokes, Carroll,
and Patrick counties. MRMS radar and gauge QPE shows in excess of
10 inches across parts of Surry county, which continues to heavily
impact the Ararat river. Light to moderate rain continues this
morning. However, because of the very high PWATS near 2.0 inches
and the ongoing warm rain process in place, even these light
showers are producing healthy 1/4 inch/hour rainfall amounts.
Overall, there is very little change expected in the pattern
today. Several concerns for continued rainfall. First, the wedge
remains in place with a moist upslope easterly flow continuing.
The wedge does not really begin to relax until Friday. Second, a
fairly healthy short wave is depicted by multiple models to track
east from the TN valley into the region overnight/early Friday.
This may help to break up the wedge, but it also could enhance
rainfall later today and tonight. PWATS remain abnormally high in
the 1.75 to 2.0 inch range, and are expected to increase and
expand northeast with time. Mesoscale models depict different
scenarios today, with the HRRR showing rainfall expanding eastward
this morning, as is currently evident on the radar while the NCEP
WRF indicates heavier rainfall remaining further west of I-77.
Bottom line is that light to moderate rainfall will likely
continue across much of the CWA today, with the heaviest likely
continuing along the Blue Ridge from Floyd southwest toward
Watauga. Details regarding the FFA in the Hydro section below.
Could have and probably should have gone with definite pops, but
this would been out of tolerance with neighboring offices.
Temperatures today will be similar to those observed Wednesday
with max temps a good 10 degrees below normal and within a degree
or two of those observed Wednesday. Min temps will remain 5-8
degrees above normal. Look for highs in the 70s west to lower 80s
Piedmont with lows in the upper 60s mountains to lower 70s
Piedmont. Some mountainous areas in the New River Valley,
northwest NC, and southeast WV could stay in the 60s again today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...
Broad summertime upper ridge continues to dominate the large-scale
pattern across the lower 48 states with the main belt of westerlies
still well to the north of our region. The cool air wedge that has
been in place for several days with persistent easterly flow will be
dissipating on Friday as the New England surface high moves well off
the coast leaving the area in a familiar warm and humid air mass.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible with diurnal
heating as temps warm back closer to early August normals. Saturday
will see a front approaching the Appalachians from the Ohio valley
which may act as trigger for afternoon thunderstorms. Just issued
Day 3 SPC outlook confines the Marginal risk to the northern mid-
Atlantic and New England where better lapse rates and shear are
expected but would not be surprised if that risk area is extended
further to the southwest in future updates to outlooks.
Either way kept high chances for afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday
ahead of and along the boundary some of which would contain heavy
rainfall along with some possibility of severe storms. Should be
near normal temps and still very humid with dewpoints upper 60s to
low 70s. Questions still exist as to how far south this front makes
it. Model consensus indicates front reaching southern NC or so by
early Sunday before stalling out but would not be surprised to see
this happen further north as upper heights barely fall and surface
high over the Great Lakes is typically weak for mid-summer. Will
keep chance pops for again mainly afternoon convection on Sunday
with temps close to normal...low 80s west and upper 80s east.
Pockets of heavy rainfall could again cause local runoff issues.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...
Followed WPC guidance for frontal positions next week with
Saturday's front moving south of the forecast area Sunday. A
little concerned this may be too optimistic, fronts generally
having trouble clearing out tropical sort of airmasses this far
south latitude in August. That said, only favored a 24-48 hour dry
period beginning Sunday with return flow bringing moisture back
into the area for renewed shower/storm chances by Tuesday.
Temperatures are forecast to be close to normal during the period
with highs in the 80s. If we can get a bonafide frontal passage
this weekend then dewpoint may fall enough to permit a wee bit
cooler readings at night with lows in the 60 to 65 degree range
instead of 65 to 70.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Thursday...
No significant change expected in conditions through the TAF valid
period with continued poor aviation conditions. Wedge will remain
in place with high pressure anchored across the northeast U.S. and
a persistent moist maritime easterly flow banked up again the
Appalachians. Minor improvement is possible during the
afternoon/early evening east of the Blue Ridge as drier air
attempts to advect southwest into that region from northern VA.
Otherwise, cigs will hover in the IFR-LIFR category overnight,
improving to IFR-MVFR in the 16Z-17Z time frame. Visibilities will
be mostly VFR given it is a tropical air mass, but in higher
elevation areas, such as KLWB, KBLF, and KBCB, lower cigs may
result in MVFR vsbys at times. Winds will remain ENE-ESE 4-8kts
through the period.
Rain and drizzle coverage should be more focused west of the Blue
Ridge today into northwest NC, southwest VA, and southeast WV,
with the more appreciable rainfall confined to areas along and
west of I-77.
Medium to high confidence in cigs through the TAF valid period.
Medium to high confidence in vsbys through the TAF valid period.
High confidence in wind speed/direction through the TAF valid
period.
Extended aviation discussion...
By Friday, the front will return to the north allowing the wedge
to erode and a warmer and more unstable air mass to return to the
region. Aloft, a series of upper-level disturbances will continue
to track across the region from the northwest. This will likely
allow for better coverage of more intense showers and
thunderstorms again Friday afternoon but ceilings and visibilities
outside the precipitation will be VFR.
A stronger cold front will approach from the northwest Saturday.
With a fairly unstable air mass in advance of this front and
continued high PWATS, some strong to severe thunderstorms along
with heavy rainfall during the afternoon appear likely. Cigs will
hover in the IFR-LIFR range again much of the day Thursday before
improving mostly to MVFR or better at times Friday and Saturday as
the area moves back into a warm sector.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 445 AM EDT Thursday...
Given considerations noted above in the Near Term Section and
various model projections of continued rainfall in areas that have
already seen excessive rain, have opted to continue the FFA
through 12Z Friday, as has our southwestern neighbor GSP. Have
removed Tazewell, Smyth, and Bland from the Watch as these
counties have generally seen less than 1/2 inch rain total and
they are not in typical upslope enhanced rainfall areas. Have
decided to include Montgomery, which is seeing greater rainfall
amounts and some parts of the county have already seen over two
inches in the past two days, as well as Stokes, the western part
of which has seen excessive rainfall in excess of six inches.
Depending on which model scenario unfolds as the day progresses
and with the short wave approaching from TN, may need to consider
adding counties further east such as Craig, Roanoke, Franklin,
Henry, and Rockingham. Will leave those out for now.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ011>017-032.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ001>004-
018>020.
WV...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/RAB
HYDROLOGY...RABHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 232 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 NCZ006-VAZ019-020-023-024-034-035-044>047-058-059-WVZ042>044-507-508- 041000- CASWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST- PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER- SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER- 232 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ004-005-VAZ014-018-022-033-043-041000- STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ROANOKE-FRANKLIN-HENRY- 232 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. AREAS NEAR AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>013-015>017-032-041000- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND- GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK- 232 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MBS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water of unknown depth was reported flowing over the road near the intersection of Route 115 and Speedway Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 658580.