A warm and muggy air mass was in place over eastern New York on Monday, July 25th. Ahead of an approaching cold front, a line of thunderstorms developed across central New York and moved towards eastern New York during the early afternoon hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
A warm and muggy air mass was in place over eastern New York on Monday, July 25th. Ahead of an approaching cold front, a line of thunderstorms developed across central New York and moved towards eastern New York during the early afternoon hours. Some of these thunderstorms became severe, producing damaging winds across parts of southern Dutchess County. Around 800 customers lost power in Dutchess County as a result of the thunderstorms.
The thunderstorms headed eastward into Connecticut by the mid-afternoon. Some additional thunderstorms occurred during the late afternoon and early evening hours as the cold front crossed the area, but no more severe storms occurred for the remainder of the day.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 12:47 PM EST, 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 147 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... With warm temperatures and humid conditions in place, showers and thunderstorms will move across the region this afternoon into this evening. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. With the passage of a cold front tonight, slightly less humid air will move into the region for tomorrow, but temperatures will continue to be rather warm with a partly to mostly sunny sky. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Severe thunderstorm watch 415 in effect until 8 PM One complex of storms headed through the eastern Catskills toward the mid Hudson Valley. There have been some strong wind gusts with the storms and some storms around severe limits in the eastern catskills. As they move into the unstable mid Hudson valley, some thunderstorms could continue to reach severe limits. Areas from the Schoharie Valley and western Mohawk Valley through the southern Adirondacks, Capital District, southern Vt and the northern Berkshires should see some showers and storms but of less intensity. Will be considering extending the severe thunderstorm watch east into the Berkshires and NW CT later this afternoon if the storms maintain their intensity or strengthen. Clearing behind this cluster of storms along the NY/PA border could help destabilize the atmosphere ahead of additional convection in western NY. There are indications in the data and mesoscale models that once this leading cluster of storms exits, the western NY convection could track into the greatest low level moisture and instability which is in PA/NJ and points south. Will just keep a close eye on it but considering the cooling and cloud cover in central and eastern NY, this seems like a reasonable prediction but real data and trends will be monitored. Temperatures have already reached close to forecasted highs, and have indicated some temperatures dropping where convection is expected to track early this afternoon. Keeping the heat advisory as some heat index values are nearing 100F now, prior to the convection. Highs this afternoon in the 80s to lower 90s, but cooling once thunderstorms arrive. The primary threat for severe weather is strong gusty winds but some small hail is also possible. Have kept the small hail and gusty winds for areas outside the severe thunderstorm watch because there is still a marginal risk. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Convection will be winding down and moving off to the east with the pre-frontal trough early in the evening. The cold front will move across the region late in the evening and during the early morning hours. A drier airmass will be ushered in the wake of the boundary, however only slightly cooler. Ridging will build in the lower levels of the atmosphere through the middle of the week, while the flow aloft flatten and becomes zonal. Expecting fair weather with continue above normal temperatures with westerly flow across the area. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to range from the upper 70s to lower 90s with Wednesday a bit warmer than Tuesday. Nighttime lows will be near to slightly above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A low confidence forecast in the long term...as the GFS and Canadian Guidance is much different compared to the ECMWF and superblend of the guidance. The latter guidance package favors wet and unsettled weather with a cold front stalling over eastern NY and western New England with slight or low chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. To stay consistent with the neighboring forecast a superblend of the guidance had to be utilized. Thu-Thu night...An amplifying upper level trough will allow a cold front to approach the region during the day. The front lacks robust moisture convergence and strong upper level support. Only a low chance of showers with a slight chc of thunderstorms was used. H850 temps will be in the +15C to +18C range from the Adirondacks southeast into the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s were favored in the valley areas...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. The front stalls near the I-90 corridor according the WPC guidance THU night. Lows will be on the mild side with mid and upper 60s in the lower elevations and upper 50s to lower 60s over the mountains. Fri-Fri night..The front becomes stationary over southern NY and southern New England. The GFS/CAN GGEM would have the mid and upper level trough amplify enough for high pressure to build in...and this would be a drier scenario. The EC has showers and thunderstorms increase ahead of a sfc wave and the stationary front lifting back slightly north as a warm front. Again...based on the blend of the guidance this was favored with slightly cooler temps with mid 70s to mid 80s for highs. It will remain humid with dewpts in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows will range from the mid and upper 50s over the srn Dacks...and srn Greens to upper 60s over the mid Hudson Valley and portions of NW CT. Sat-Sun...More unsettled weather potentially with a series of disturbances moving along the front with a rather flat upper level trough near the Great Lakes Region. Chances of showers will persist with slight to low chances of thunderstorms in the moist environment. Some of the rainfall could help the hydro service area due to the persistent dry wx/drought conditions over the past month or so. Temps are expected to be close to late July normals. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... First round of showers and thunderstorms moving over TAF sites between 1730 and 1900Z. Some brief reductions to MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in thunderstorm at KPOU. Other sites are north of thunderstorms and just rain showers are more likely. Second round of showers and thunderstorms are expected at the TAF sites between 25/22Z and 26/00Z. VFR conditions are expected after 00Z/TUE...but some MVFR/IFR mist is expected to develop after 04Z at the TAF sites. The winds will be south to southwest at 5-12 KT this afternoon. Some gusts in the 15-20 KT range will be possible in the afternoon from the southwest before becoming light after 00Z/TUE. Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Westerly wind with gusts into the teens and 20s Tuesday afternoon... Another day with hot temperatures and increasing humidity levels. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the area mainly this afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes region. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. With the passage of the cold front tonight, a slightly cooler but drier air mass will be ushered in. High pressure will build in and bring fair dry weather to the area through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the area mainly this afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes region. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water values rise to around 2 inches. Ponding of water on roadways along with some minor urban flooding of low lying and poor drainage area is possible. With the passage of the cold front tonight, a slightly cooler but drier air mass will be ushered in. High pressure will build in and bring fair weather to the area through the middle of the week. Unsettled weather is expected late in the week through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Here is a look at the number of 90+ degree days so far this year through July 24th, what is normal and the most that has occurred in a year. Albany NY: 2016: 9 days Normal: 10 days Most: 32 days in 1955 Note: Daily records date back to 1874 Glens Falls NY: 2016: 8 days Normal: 6 days Most: 22 days in 1988 Note records date back to 1949 Poughkeepsie NY: 2016: 16 days with 10 days in July and another forecast for today Normal: 15 days Most: 30 days in numerous year most recently 2010, 2005 and 2002 Note: Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000 Pittsfield MA: 2016: 1 day Normal: 2 days Most: 7 days in 2010 Based on data dating back to 2000 Bennington VT: 2016: 2 days Normal: 3 days Most: 9 days in 2010 Based on data dating back to 2000 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064-065. MA...None. VT...None. && SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA CLIMATE...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 112 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 NYZ064-065-261100- EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS- 112 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN ULSTER AND WESTERN DUTCHESS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HEAT ADVISORY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-082>084-VTZ013>015-261100- NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON- MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON- WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA- NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON- WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- 112 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NYZ058>061-063-066-261100- WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA- WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN DUTCHESS- 112 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA... WESTERN ULSTER AND EASTERN DUTCHESS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS IN EFFECT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ047-051>054-261100- NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE- SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY- WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER- 112 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND THE TACONICS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
NYZ058-059-063-251730-
WESTERN ULSTER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
1249 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GREENE AND CENTRAL
ULSTER COUNTIES...
AT 1248 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
PRATTSVILLE TO NEAR ARKVILLE TO LIVINGSTON MANOR. MOVEMENT WAS EAST
AT 35 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELLENVILLE...HUNTER...WOODSTOCK...WINDHAM...PRATTSVILLE...
FLEISCHMANNS...OLIVEBRIDGE...WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND...
MOUNT TREMPER...KENNETH L WILSON CAMPGROUND...PHOENICIA...
LANESVILLE...NORTH-SOUTH LAKE CAMPGROUND...KERHONKSON...
WEST SHOKAN...NAPANOCH...WEST HURLEY...WAWARSING...
CRAWFORD AND CAIRO.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 4162 7438 4165 7440 4174 7457 4188 7445
4202 7478 4212 7456 4215 7453 4217 7445
4220 7454 4236 7444 4237 7438 4236 7434
4238 7427 4238 7395 4162 7429 4160 7432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 276DEG 32KT 4231 7450 4212 7462 4190 7482
FRUGISSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
NYZ058>061-063>066-251815-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN
DUTCHESS-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN
COLUMBIA-
127 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...
AT 127 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
HUNTER TO OLIVEBRIDGE TO ELLENVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POUGHKEEPSIE...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...HUDSON...ELLENVILLE...
CATSKILL...SAUGERTIES...RHINEBECK...PAWLING...HUNTER...WALLKILL...
HYDE PARK...PLATTEKILL...PLEASANT VALLEY...HURLEY...CLAVERACK...
WOODSTOCK...WAPPINGERS FALLS...AMENIA AND LIVINGSTON.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 4158 7395 4159 7396 4158 7405 4160 7407
4160 7409 4162 7413 4158 7413 4160 7425
4163 7426 4159 7434 4160 7437 4164 7439
4167 7444 4193 7431 4227 7427 4227 7353
4155 7355 4155 7398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 271DEG 36KT 4226 7421 4193 7424 4169 7436
FRUGISThe Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:28 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large tree limbs were downed in Hopewell Junction as a result of thunderstorm winds.
County Route 216 was closed in the town of East Fishkill due to downed tree and wires from thunderstorm winds.
A tree was downed onto a building in the village of Pawling due to thunderstorm winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 641770, 641772, 641773.