A rich plume of mid to upper level moisture was across West Texas and southeast New Mexico along with an approaching upper level disturbance. This disturbance increased lift over the region, and plentiful moisture aided in the development of storms with heavy rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A rich plume of mid to upper level moisture was across West Texas and southeast New Mexico along with an approaching upper level disturbance. This disturbance increased lift over the region, and plentiful moisture aided in the development of storms with heavy rainfall. These conditions allowed for flash flooding to occur in southeast New Mexico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 23, 11:49 AM MST, 3 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .DISCUSSION... A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream across the area and early this morning was collocated with showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields. Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably to back above normal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 91 70 93 / 30 20 40 10 Carlsbad 66 90 66 86 / 30 30 20 50 Dryden 71 93 71 94 / 10 20 30 20 Fort Stockton 68 90 67 91 / 30 50 40 30 Guadalupe Pass 62 83 62 78 / 40 30 10 50 Hobbs 67 84 64 84 / 40 30 40 40 Marfa 60 83 59 81 / 40 50 40 50 Midland Intl Airport 72 89 69 91 / 40 30 40 20 Odessa 71 88 68 90 / 40 40 40 20 Wink 70 90 69 92 / 50 60 40 30 && .MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NM...None. TX...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 123 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-241830- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 123 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 /1223 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH. HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS, DRAWS, STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE VAN HORN AND MARFA AREAS, NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING HEAVY RAINFALL. ON WEDNESDAY, THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS IN WEST TEXAS. THE EMPHASIS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THURSDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS. RIVER RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, AND PECOS RIVER IN EDDY COUNTY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1244 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016
NMZ027-028-231930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY NM-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS NM-
1244 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM MDT...
AT 1244 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CARLSBAD CAVERNS NATIONAL PARK...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CARLSBAD... MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHITES CITY AND CARLSBAD CAVERNS NATIONAL PARK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 3209 10455 3224 10466 3238 10461 3254 10446
3219 10425
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 014DEG 6KT 3219 10455
67SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 150 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 NMZ027-028-232030- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY NM-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS NM- 150 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM MDT... AT 149 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CARLSBAD CAVERNS NATIONAL PARK...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARLSBAD... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARLSBAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SEVEN RIVERS AIRPORT...BRANTLEY LAKE STATE PARK...CARLSBAD CAVERNS NATIONAL PARK AND SEVEN RIVERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3265 10459 3262 10432 3213 10442 3214 10464 TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 208DEG 5KT 3221 10454 67
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 TXZ058-232045- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS TX- 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM CDT... AT 303 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOYAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3137 10397 3150 10404 3176 10381 3159 10354 TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 229DEG 9KT 3152 10390 67
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 357 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 TXZ068-232145- CRANE TX- 357 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRANE COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CDT... AT 356 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF IMPERIAL...OR 13 MILES EAST OF GRANDFALLS...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3133 10252 3135 10273 3164 10272 3164 10239 TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 192DEG 19KT 3139 10263 27
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 189 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:08 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Rancher reported a six to seven foot wall of water down Dark Canyon Draw at County Road 408.
Dark Canyon Road/County Road 408 was closed due to flooding caused by heavy rainfall in the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 653930, 653931.