Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, September 19, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
647 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

1) Only weather concern in the short term will be focused in
northeast Missouri as a cold front, currently located over central
Iowa, slides south this evening into tonight. Models remain fairly
consistent keeping the majority of our area capped, with the southern
end of convection likely following near the H7 10C temperature
gradient. Unionville to Kirksville will see the most probable chances
for thunderstorms tonight, between midnight to 5am. A strong to
severe storm will be possible, with large hail the most likely form
of hazardous weather.

2) Temperatures will remain warm through the remainder of the week,
roughly 10 degrees above average. High humidity will also persist
through the work week, with afternoon heat indicies in the middle to
upper 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.

3) A chance for thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday night
into Thursday across far northwest Missouri as the current closed low
off the California coast opens and shifts into the Plains. This
feature will open and substantially weaken, glancing the forecast
area as it moves through.

4) A large pattern change remains in the cards this weekend as a
highly amplified trough approaches the High Plains. The exact
evolution remains uncertain, as several pieces of energy will break
off and shift just west and north of the forecast area through the
weekend. The flow will become somewhat meridional, with slow eastward
progression of the overall trough. This spells some uncertainty in
timing the arrival of precipitation, and likewise the coverage.
Storms that do make it into the area will have the potential for
locally heavy rainfall with the relatively weak and unidirectional
upper flow combined with high precipitable water values. Currently,
the best chances for thunderstorms will come on Sunday into Monday
before a cold front moves through and high pressure builds back in
behind the front.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

Southerly winds have increased dewpoints 10-15F today over most of
northern Missouri. With clear skies, light winds, and plenty of
cooling tonight an area of fog formation if possible. The area of
concern will be north of the Missouri River effecting mainly MCI and
STJ airfields. With the extra moisture source and cooler low
temperatures STJ is currently forecasted down to LIFR visibility and
ceilings just before sunrise. Fog is expected to form near MCI but
for only went with IFR visibility right around sunrise. This fog will
burn off quickly after sunrise, but a low ceiling is possible to
remain over northern MO through 14-15Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Barham/Leighton

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
441 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-200945-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
441 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 A STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 HEAT INDEX VALUES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100.

 STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY
 NIGHT INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO