Funnel Cloud in Missouri, September 14, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
244 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2016

Average confidence in the short term due to model inconsistencies.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue through the late
afternoon hours, then fizzle out this evening.

The region should remain dry overnight. Continued weak H5
ridging/lack of upper support will have a tendency to prevent
widespread convection on Thursday, however showers and thunderstorms
are possible mainly over the northwest half of the CWA as low level
warm air advection coincides with deeper moisture.

Precipitation chances drop off Thursday evening, but begin to
increase over the western and northwestern sections of our CWA as
the ridging sags southward and a cold front approaches from the
plains.

An increase in upper flow combined with deeper moisture and the
aforementioned cold front drawing ever closer will produce steadily
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms from Friday into
Friday night. Latest model forecast show the front knocking on the
northwest edge of our CWA by late Friday night.

Temperatures will remain at or above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2016

With this forecast package...have a slightly lower confidence of
precipitation extending further in time through Sunday and Monday.
The 12z GFS, as well as the 12z ECMWF, appear to generate a
secondary cut-off low over Southern California again, lagging behind
the progressive upper Midwest trough on Saturday.

The GFS and ECWMF ensembles show lower probability of predictability
and higher standard deviations with this feature.  Therefore,
blended the drier 00z Wednesday ECMWF with the regional model blend
initialization with this extended package. The net effect was to
lower rain chances from the west during the day on Sunday, drying
the area out Sunday night. For collaborative reasons, re-introduced
a small chance of rain into the southern half of the WFO PAH
forecast on Monday morning, but kept the remainder of the forecast
dry into next Wednesday.

Otherwise...little meaningful changes to temperatures, dewpoints, or
winds through the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2016

With the exception of possible MVFR conditions in SHRA/TSRA this
afternoon, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the
period. Winds will either be calm or light and variable through
late tonight, then swing around to the northeast AOB 5 knots.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-151000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
247 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY STORM RELATED
HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR PART OR ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM RELATED
HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KES/JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
111 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W MULKEYTOWN          37.97N 89.15W
09/14/2016  M2.70 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL THROUGH 1PM FROM DAVIS WEATHER STATION WEST
            OF MULKEYTOWN. MAJORITY OF RAIN FELL WITHIN 1.5 HOURS
            BETWEEN 1130AM AND 1PM

&&

SP