A narrow squall line of thunderstorms evolved over south central Missouri and then moved rapidly east-northeast through the evening hours. Some of the storms were accompanied by damaging winds.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A narrow squall line of thunderstorms evolved over south central Missouri and then moved rapidly east-northeast through the evening hours. Some of the storms were accompanied by damaging winds. This line of storms was related to the approach of an upper-level disturbance. A low-level wind flow of warmer air near and north of a weak surface boundary over Arkansas also aided the storms. The surface boundary was the result of an earlier thunderstorm complex that produced a pool of cooler air.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 9, 5:20 PM CST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 620 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016 Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion,. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016 Southerly winds through the short term period will bring an ever more humid air mass across the region. This will help to fuel periods of convection as a series of upper-level disturbances move through the region. There currently are 3 periods of concern for strong to severe thunderstorms. The first will be tonight, the second will be Tuesday afternoon/evening, and the third will be Wednesday night. A weak disturbance that is currently pushing some light rain through western portions of southeast Missouri will lift northeast with showers skirting along the northwest periphery of the area this afternoon. A lack of destabilization today should prevent any thunderstorms with this activity. A stronger upper-level disturbance will push northeast into the area tonight. This disturbance will likely touch off strong to severe thunderstorms over Arkansas later this afternoon, and these storms should eventually attempt to push into at least southeast Missouri. Given the lack of destabilization over our area, we would expect these storms to be weakening and pose mainly a locally heavy rain/lightning threat. However, it is likely that these storms will be organized into one or more linear clusters, which may maintain a damaging wind threat into our region. Figure the severe threat will be confined to southeast Missouri and southern Illinois this evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to push eastward through the entire region overnight, but Tuesday should start out dry for much of the region. By midday Tuesday, a much stronger upper-level trough will be moving eastward just to the north of the region, resulting in strong westerly flow aloft over the four state area. This should prime the environment for our best shot of severe weather through the afternoon. However, as was the case today, destabilization may be difficult to achieve, so this is by no measure a slam dunk severe weather event. Think that SPC's Slight Risk looks good for Day 2. After Tuesday's system pushes east of the area, we should dry out for much of Tuesday night and possibly Wednesday, as short-wave ridging passes through the region. The base of a larger-scale trough is forecast to push into the region Wednesday night, and severe weather is likely to our west/northwest during the day. The flow aloft over our region is quite weak through Wednesday evening, so we could see a strong to severe storm/cluster try to maintain strength into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois in the evening, but this activity would generally be weakening as it moves deeper into the area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016 The medium range models and their ensemble means were in reasonable agreement in depictions of the mid/upper pattern over the CONUS. The extended period will start out with waning probabilities of showers and tstms Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front, driven by northern stream shortwave energy, sweeps through the PAH forecast area. The pcpn will be replaced by high pressure at the surface Friday as the mid/upper flow switches to a more northwesterly direction. In this west northwesterly flow aloft, a reinforcing surge of cool air is expected to arrive in our region early Saturday, with most of the measurable rainfall occurring Friday night. There could be a sprinkle or two Saturday morning if there's any deeper moisture left, along with cooler than average temperatures. For the latter half of the weekend, a baroclinic zone (and focus for shower and tstm development) is progged to set up in or near the PAH forecast area, between high surface pressure to the north and low surface pressure developing in the southern Plains. Though the smaller details of the deterministic models are more murky at this time frame, it appears that shower and tstm chances will be fairly decent across our region Sunday through Monday, as indicated by the initialization blend. Warm advection should help boost temperatures back to near seasonable by Monday (Day 7). && .AVIATION... Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016 Lots of mid clouds over the area today along with scattered rain showers this afternoon. Some MVFR ceilings will gradually spread east across southeast MO this evening and the rest of the region tonight. There is some evidence for IFR ceilings as well with time. The convective forecast continues to be seriously muddled due to a lack of instability. The forecasts represent our best guess at this time, but confidence is not great. Another potential round convection is expected to develop over the region by midday Tuesday and move east through the entire area through the afternoon. For now, tried to highlight best chance for storms early on this evening, but left VCSH or VCTS for the remainder of the forecast. There will be dry periods however. Winds will remain southerly and gusty at times. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 830 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-110130- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 830 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 158 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2AM FOR PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA... .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SHAWNEETOWN IL TO SMITHLAND IL TO MAYFIELD KY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH ENTIRE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IS IN QUESTION AND WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY REACH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OFF AND ON FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS EVENING IN THE WATCH AREA. JP
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 191 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:36 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few large tree limbs were blown down. Much of Van Buren was without power.
A trained spotter reported winds gusted to 60 mph.
Several trees were down, blocking parts of PP Highway about five miles west-northwest of Poplar Bluff. A tree was blown onto a garage on County Road 469 a few miles west of Poplar Bluff. On Highway 142 just south of the city, a tree and power lines were down.
Trees up to four feet in diameter were uprooted and snapped. One tree was snapped two feet from the base. Shingles were blown off. Power lines were down on a city street.
Multiple trees were blown down across the city. A building on the west side of Sikeston was missing part of its roof.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 628266, 628269, 628264, 628267, 628268.