A slow-moving cluster of thunderstorms produced very heavy rain and isolated flooding of roads. The storms occurred in a moist southwest wind flow, with surface dew points in the middle 60's.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A slow-moving cluster of thunderstorms produced very heavy rain and isolated flooding of roads. The storms occurred in a moist southwest wind flow, with surface dew points in the middle 60's. A weak 500 mb shortwave trough embedded in southwest flow aloft helped to trigger the storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 24, 1:50 PM CST, 0 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 250 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016 Short term convective trends will have to be derived from radar/satellite, and the RAP, as the other models are not handling well what may be an MCV moving across southern MO. From there, will trend more toward a NAM/EC blend overnight and on through the remainder of the short term forecast. We may see a lull after the current activity does what it will. Late tonight into Wednesday morning expect another round of convection to move NE, especially over the NW 1/2 of the area, diminishing by afternoon with the passage of a mid level s/wv. Likely a lull Wednesday night, then convective chances slowly increase Thursday and especially Thursday night as the mid level flow backs in response to energy digging moving into the Rockies from the SW U.S. in the form of a mid level low. The airmass will be rich with deep moisture through the short term. So any robust convection will produce very heavy rain. Also, the airmass just to our west and southwest will overspread the area. Already seeing some pulse near to low end severe cores with this activity. Models show decent instability, so a few strong, pulse severe storms cannot be ruled out. Warm and muggy. Split the difference on MOS and our existing numbers. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016 Warm and humid conditions will continue through the long term. The main forecast challenge is precipitation chances. Deep-layer southwest flow Friday will decrease over the weekend. The flow pattern will become weak and non-descript by Memorial Day. There will likely be a corresponding decrease in convective coverage over the holiday weekend as the flow slackens. Details below... On Friday, a rather broad 500 mb shortwave trough will emerge from the Rockies into the western High Plains. This trough will continue northeastward across the central Plains on Saturday. A moist and unstable air mass will be in place, but there is no synoptic low- level boundary apparent in the models. Therefore, precipitation coverage will be dependent on mesoscale features such as outflow boundaries and/or convectively-induced vorticity centers. Given the lack of model skill at longer time ranges with such features, the forecast will stay the course with 30 to 50 percent chance pops. Given the moist environment and moderately strong low-level inflow, locally heavy rain is likely in some thunderstorms. Even small doses of sun should be enough to push highs into the lower/mid 80s, which the models have consistently been forecasting for both Fri and Sat. Sunday into Memorial Day, the upper-level flow will weaken as the shortwave continues northeast across the Great Lakes region. In the wake of the shortwave, some mid-level drying is indicated by the gfs. This is reflected in its lower precipitable water values. The forecast will follow suit, with pops mainly in the slight chance category Saturday night into Monday. Highs should be in the 80s with lows in the 60s during that period. For Tuesday, the models diverge concerning the evolution of troughing over the western states. The 12z ecmwf indicates southwest flow will increase slightly ahead of the trough, but the gfs and gefs keep the trough much further west. The forecast will indicate low chance pops for Tuesday. Even the more pessimistic ecmwf does not suggest widespread coverage of precip. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016 VFR conditions with south winds aob 10 kts and occasional clouds 5-8k/ft, high level clouds as well. There is a chance of shra/tsra across the area (scattered) through Wednesday morning. Will require short term updates given the uncertainty in timing and coverage. No inclusion at this time. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-251000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST UPDATES AND FORECASTS THIS WEEK.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Near Gatewood, there was minor flooding of Highway V due to a nearby creek, and water was reported along Highway 142 near Highway V. Near Naylor, there was minor flooding on Highway 142.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 630223.