Flooding and Heavy Rain in Missouri, May 16 to 17, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

...Update to Aviation for 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon May 16 2016

Light rain showers are overspreading the area early this morning,
north of a warm frontal zone which is taking shape across the
southern Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue on
an occasional basis through the day today. Rainfall has been
rather light so far given a decent layer of dry air in the low
levels, but coverage/intensity should gradually increase through
the day.

By this evening/first part of the overnight, much of the rain and
thunderstorm activity should be focused along the 850 MB front,
which is currently expected to be north of I-44.

Toward Tuesday morning, the remains of strong/severe convection
over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles should be moving east
across northern Oklahoma and/or southern Kansas. This MCS is
expected to move into the area Tuesday, likely around or just
after sunrise. Severe weather potential with this MCS is very much
up in the air, as it will depend on where exactly the surface warm
front sets up. If part of the CWA can manage to make it into the
warm sector, then some strong/severe surface based convection will
be possible. Right now, that would be most likely to occur (in a
relative sense) over far southwestern Missouri, though this will
very much be a short term forecast challenge.

The parent shortwave/enhanced MCV is then expected to sweep
across the area during the day Tuesday. Model guidance is now
suggestive of PoPs dropping off Tuesday evening as the surface
front is nudged a bit south and drier air builds in from the
northeast.

A slower onset to precipitation and quicker end compared to
previous forecasts suggests that the flood threat has decreased
considerably through mid week. Storm total rainfall amounts at
this time look to generally remain under 2.5 inches in most
locations, which given dry antecedent conditions, shouldn't cause
major problems.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon May 16 2016

Northeast surface flow is then expected to continue Tuesday night
into Wednesday, with the bulk of the precipitation potential
staying to our south through Wednesday night.

By Thursday morning, surface high pressure is expected to begin to
retreat to the east, with flow aloft becoming more southwesterly.
This will result in increased chances for occasional
shower/thunderstorm activity as low amplitude shortwaves ripple
across the area through the end of the workweek. Warmer and drier
conditions are then possible by next weekend, as upper level
ridging may build into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon May 16 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Widespread rainfall has
overspread the region early this morning and will continue to
track across the area throughout much of today and tonight. There
may be a brief break in the rain this afternoon, as it because
more scattered in nature. Instability  will start to increase
slowly from the south this afternoon into tonight resulting in
thunderstorms being possible at times.

Ceilings will lower into the MVFR and possibly IFR range this
morning, with IFR ceilings occurring this evening and tonight.
Visibilities will also lower in the heaver showers and with any
thunderstorm.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
513 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
  THE DAY TODAY. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
  TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH MID WEEK. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
  EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON TUESDAY MORNING.

  AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...ADDITIONAL
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL